2020 Model 3 Predictions
Like many of you I have owned numerous sports cars, a Model S, currently own a Model 3 which I love, and I am a Tesla stock holder. Also like most of you, I believe Tesla has a bright future and I hope to own another Tesla, a Cybertruck, not too many years down the road. So as an owner of a 3 and a follower of this great company I decided to look into my crystal ball and make my own predictions for the Model 3 and for Tesla in general. Of course I have no better insight than anyone else into this company so take my predictions with a grain of salt. I am not a stock adviser so certainly don't buy or sell stock based on my guesses, instead talk to your own professional financial adviser before doing any trading of the cars or stock.
Below are my predictions for this year.
* Similar to 2019, I see 1st Qtr 2020 Model 3 deliveries (outside of China factory anyway) down > 8%. Model S deliveries down > 20% and Model X deliveries down > 10%. Due to the lower 1st Qtr sales of 3, S, & X I would think Tesla probably reports a loss for 1st Qtr - hopefully I'm wrong. I also guess that Model 3, S, & X sales, will continue a slow steady decline throughout 2020.
* I think the China factory 1st Qtr Model 3 & Model Y combined deliveries will be > 20K. I predict Model Y (non China factory) deliveries > 15K for 1st Qtr which will have a negative impact on Model 3 sales. I think the Model Y will cannibalize the 3 and eventually become the predominant Tesla vehicle for sales and reservations. Overtaking/displacing the 3 sales is not necessarily a bad thing. Though personally it will be sad to see decreasing sales of the Model 3 due to the Model Y the good news is that margins for the Y should be greater than the 3. If the margins are greater then I would suspect Tesla should have a good chance for profitability in 3rd & 4th Qtr 2020. But hey, if Tesla ever decides to revamp how they build the 3 based on the better production efficiencies and margins of the Y then they could make a lower cost and sell price 3 - which would be great for everyone.
* I'll guess that the Factory in Germany takes much longer than expected to complete and will not produce any Model 3's or Model Y's before mid 2023.
* Tesla in 1st Qtr 2021 will begin deliveries of the Cybertruck but will have to limit production so as to not impact battery availability for the Model 3 or Model Y. This means during 2020 Tesla will have to find a way to significantly increase battery pack production rates beyond what is currently available. Of course the new roadster and the semi will also be dependent on Tesla solving the battery pack production rate problem, but hat's a good problem to have.
* Final prediction is that by the end of 2020 the combined US sales of all of the potential Tesla killers will manage to be only a fraction of the Model 3 and Model Y sales for the year.
There, I'm done, so now what do you see in your crystal ball?
Like many of you I have owned numerous sports cars, a Model S, currently own a Model 3 which I love, and I am a Tesla stock holder. Also like most of you, I believe Tesla has a bright future and I hope to own another Tesla, a Cybertruck, not too many years down the road. So as an owner of a 3 and a follower of this great company I decided to look into my crystal ball and make my own predictions for the Model 3 and for Tesla in general. Of course I have no better insight than anyone else into this company so take my predictions with a grain of salt. I am not a stock adviser so certainly don't buy or sell stock based on my guesses, instead talk to your own professional financial adviser before doing any trading of the cars or stock.
Below are my predictions for this year.
* Similar to 2019, I see 1st Qtr 2020 Model 3 deliveries (outside of China factory anyway) down > 8%. Model S deliveries down > 20% and Model X deliveries down > 10%. Due to the lower 1st Qtr sales of 3, S, & X I would think Tesla probably reports a loss for 1st Qtr - hopefully I'm wrong. I also guess that Model 3, S, & X sales, will continue a slow steady decline throughout 2020.
* I think the China factory 1st Qtr Model 3 & Model Y combined deliveries will be > 20K. I predict Model Y (non China factory) deliveries > 15K for 1st Qtr which will have a negative impact on Model 3 sales. I think the Model Y will cannibalize the 3 and eventually become the predominant Tesla vehicle for sales and reservations. Overtaking/displacing the 3 sales is not necessarily a bad thing. Though personally it will be sad to see decreasing sales of the Model 3 due to the Model Y the good news is that margins for the Y should be greater than the 3. If the margins are greater then I would suspect Tesla should have a good chance for profitability in 3rd & 4th Qtr 2020. But hey, if Tesla ever decides to revamp how they build the 3 based on the better production efficiencies and margins of the Y then they could make a lower cost and sell price 3 - which would be great for everyone.
* I'll guess that the Factory in Germany takes much longer than expected to complete and will not produce any Model 3's or Model Y's before mid 2023.
* Tesla in 1st Qtr 2021 will begin deliveries of the Cybertruck but will have to limit production so as to not impact battery availability for the Model 3 or Model Y. This means during 2020 Tesla will have to find a way to significantly increase battery pack production rates beyond what is currently available. Of course the new roadster and the semi will also be dependent on Tesla solving the battery pack production rate problem, but hat's a good problem to have.
* Final prediction is that by the end of 2020 the combined US sales of all of the potential Tesla killers will manage to be only a fraction of the Model 3 and Model Y sales for the year.
There, I'm done, so now what do you see in your crystal ball?
