My Model 3 buying strategy

[Oyinko]

Hey!

I currently have 2 Model 3 reservations for a delivery scheduled between December and February (I live in San Francisco)

My current car (a BMW M235i) will run out of warranty in April 2018. I drive about 8500 miles per year (mostly on weekends) and I'm really excited to buy a new car.

I would love to buy a Tesla asap but I have some constraints. The first one is that my wife and I might decide to move back to Europe at some point later in 2018, early 2019. It's absolutely not certain but that's a small possibility.

The second is that, the car I really want to get is the M3 AWD and very likely the future Performance Model 3.

So I'm thinking about the following strategy:

• I buy the LR M3 and get a delivery asap.

• If I need to move back to Europe later in 2018, I sell the LR M3 and take a loss. How much money will I lose? I'm looking at about 4K of sales taxes and something like 7% if I put 10k miles on the car. Total of 4K + 4K = 8K.
• When I arrive in Europe, I get a delivery of a Performance Model 3 as soon as they become available in Europe.

If I stay in San Francisco and fall in love about the Model 3 Performance, I resell the LR M3 and get a Performance M3. If not I continue to drive my LR M3.

So the big question is, how much money will I lose if I move back to Europe or decide to get a Performance M3. Do you think they will hold their value well because they will be in high demand the first year?

In addition, if it becomes clear that I will move or will want the Performance M3, I'm thinking I could put the Tesla on Getaround to get some money. What do you think of this option? How much could I rent it for on Getaround?

Thanks for your inputs!

 

[eSpiritIV]

Why get the LR if you only drive 8500 miles per year? Do you mostly drive long weekend trips that could utilize the 310 miles? Most people are better off with the SR if they dont. You could then loose less money when you resell to get your LR Performance AWD when it comes out.

 

[Krugerrand]

You're going to be quite early in the queue and the car is sold out now for most of 2018. By the time you get your car it'll be sold out well into 2019, so I think your losses will be less than you think. Regardless, I think you should take one for the team and never mind any losses if you move to Europe. Your money is going to a good cause.

I can hardly wait to get my 3. I'm going to drive that puppy like a stole it!

 

[SageBrush]

Buy the car you want, and if you move to Europe either sell or ship it.

 

[Tiger]

In 2019 you could get the MY.

 

[cronosx]

ship is a solution.. the american tesla are not compatibile in europe

 

[SageBrush]

ship is a solution.. the american tesla are not compatibile in europe

Ah .. I think you are right. I forgot about the different plugs

 

[Oyinko]

Bump on this topic!

I'm still waiting on receiving my invitation to configure.

I put my BMW M235i on sell and just got a serious offer at $30750 (KBB value is around 31K). I'm happy about the offer because it's a difficult car to sell.

However, I'm now debating if I really need to change my M235i. I drive only about 5000 miles per year (mostly on weekends) and while I've been waiting to buy a Tesla for years, I'm not sure if it makes sense considering I don't drive that much.

One way to look at it would be to look at the cash flow of both options. I'm expecting an additional depreciation of $8000 on my M235i in two years and 10'000 more miles + $1000 of maintenance and $500 of additional gas cost (compared to electric)

In your opinion, what would be the resell value of a Model 3 LR in 2 years (63k with taxes in California) with 10'000 miles on it? Especially considering that the federal inventive will expire by end of the year which should make a used Model 3 a bit more interesting than a new one without the tax credit.

 

[Oyinko]

Bump

 

[voip-ninja]

Bump

You aren't a current owner so the first question is when your current estimated time to configure is for your reservations?

Next.... what impact will expiring tax credits have on resale value of Tesla Model 3.

I think resale of the Model 3 is extremely difficult to predict which is why Tesla nor any banks are offering leases on it... in a lease they have to make a prediction of what the resale of the car will be and guarantee that residual if the leasee lives up to their end of the lease agreement.

 

[run-the-joules]

In your opinion, what would be the resell value of a Model 3 LR in 2 years (63k with taxes in California) with 10'000 miles on it? Especially considering that the federal inventive will expire by end of the year which should make a used Model 3 a bit more interesting than a new one without the tax credit.

Write down 100 prices on pieces of paper, throw them all in a bag, and pull one out. That's as likely to be accurate as anything that people here are going to make up.

 

[eye.surgeon]

Bump on this topic!

I'm still waiting on receiving my invitation to configure.

I put my BMW M235i on sell and just got a serious offer at $30750 (KBB value is around 31K). I'm happy about the offer because it's a difficult car to sell.

However, I'm now debating if I really need to change my M235i. I drive only about 5000 miles per year (mostly on weekends) and while I've been waiting to buy a Tesla for years, I'm not sure if it makes sense considering I don't drive that much.

One way to look at it would be to look at the cash flow of both options. I'm expecting an additional depreciation of $8000 on my M235i in two years and 10'000 more miles + $1000 of maintenance and $500 of additional gas cost (compared to electric)

In your opinion, what would be the resell value of a Model 3 LR in 2 years (63k with taxes in California) with 10'000 miles on it? Especially considering that the federal inventive will expire by end of the year which should make a used Model 3 a bit more interesting than a new one without the tax credit.

If it's purely a financial question, it's a no-brainer to keep the car you have. As a bonus those M235i's are a blast, I drove one for two days on the track at the BMW performance driving school in Palm Springs.

 

[Oyinko]

I got my invitation to configure

 

[ebmcs03]

Cool! But then you’ll only get to enjoy it for 2 months before having to sell it and move back to Europe.