My open letter to the Chevy Bolt, from a Tesla fan.

[bro1999]

I believe you are correct that CUVs are a very popular class. But that begs the question: why are GM's expectations for the Bolt so low? Shouldn't they be planning to build 300-400K per year instead of ~30K? Tesla has demonstrated that demand for an EV in the arguably less popular sedan class is sufficient that 373,000 people were willing to preorder.

GM has very capable engineers. Given GM's vast resources, if GM management had taken the plunge and made a sufficient investment in battery technology and production capacity, EV drivetrain technology, EV-friendly design (aerodynamics and good looks) and a fast charging network, they should have been able to develop an EV that is projected to sell at least half as well as a car made by a company that introduced its first mass produced vehicle only four years ago. But so far GM has chosen not to make those investments so we don't know what they could have accomplished.

At some point, GM is going to have to dive in with both feet instead of dipping a toe in the water, or they will be left behind. As a former Detroiter, I really hope they figure that out. IMO "say nice things about the Bolt" doesn't help GM (or sustainable transportation generally) get where they need to go.

"dipping toe in water" is what Ford is doing. More like dipping a 10 foot pole in the water, now that I think about it.

GM was burned predicting Volt sales 6 years ago, not even coming close to sales protections. It's better to under promise, over deliver than over promise, under deliver.

 

[diamond.g]

"dipping toe in water" is what Ford is doing. More like dipping a 10 foot pole in the water, now that I think about it.

GM was burned predicting Volt sales 6 years ago, not even coming close to sales protections. It's better to under promise, over deliver than over promise, under deliver.

In this case they can't really over deliver can they? They said they could make as many as 50000 Bolts a year. Assuming LG Chem is able to produce that many batteries. If the demand is higher (based on Model 3 reservations it should be safe to say it is) how would they be able to catch up if their battery supplier can't produce more batteries?

 

[Chopr147]

But EV drivetrains are still wildly more expensive than ICE drivetrains.

HUH? How do you figure? EV drivetrain is basically the same AC Induction motor driving my grinder, which is 50 years old and still humming along.
I get the expensive batteries and software turning it into a computer on wheels. The drivetrain itself though is a simple design upgraded to meet modern standards

 

[McRat]

HUH? How do you figure? EV drivetrain is basically the same AC Induction motor driving my grinder, which is 50 years old and still humming along.
I get the expensive batteries and software turning it into a computer on wheels. The drivetrain itself though is a simple design upgraded to meet modern standards

No, the motor in an EV is not the motor in your milling machine.

First, look at the size of a 100hp EV motor. Now look at the size of a 100hp industrial electric motor.
And the industrial motor is low RPM, not mapped for variable drive nor regeneration, and it's air-cooled.

Cheapo industrial motor, 100HP - $2600:

HP 100
RPM 1775
Frame 405T
Voltage 208-230/460
Amps 253-229/115
Phase Three
Efficiency 94.5%
Shaft 2 7/8" x 7 1/4"
Weight 1273 lbs

EV motors are lighter, higher technology, more powerful, and expensive.

Part of the drivetrain of an EV is the battery because it's key to motor performance. So add the expensive lithium battery array, it's BMS, it's cooling system, and it's armor.

Now you need a way to recharge that battery without special ground equipment. On Board charger.

Now you need an Inverter/controller. Go price 80kW watercooled inverters/controllers.

Now you need to consider things you don't expect. EVs are heavier, so the frame/chassis is more expensive. The batteries are large and must be protected in case of collision. Not as cheap as protecting a gas tank.

But, you could take the simple path, several car companies make an EV out of their ICE cars. They do not expect to make a profit on the EVs, but must on the ICE cars.

Spark EV - $13k vs $25k.
Kia Soul EV- $16k vs $30k
Focus EV - $17k vs $29k

Now, it's a VERY competitive market, with many choices of 100 class EVs.
And the companies make hidden money selling each EV.
But you can see that a low power (100hp) EV driveline costs $12k more than an ICE build.

So what do you think a 200HP EV costs to build over a 200HP ICE? I'd think $15k.

 

[EnrgyNDpndnce]

Typical, 'I can't discuss without being derogatory'.



Taste is subjective, which we all know. I greatly appreciate a minimalist approach. I like super clean lines. No! I heart super clean lines. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Not my fault, I have my parent's genes and had no say over the combination. So yes, I'm totally digging no knobs, buttons, do-dads etc... I don't even use most of them in my current vehicle. I'm a typical minimalist zealot; you must be a typical 'hurray for clutter' zealot. Good thing we both have a choice in the EV we want to drive. We'll get together later and compare performance, charging, and AP.

To be fair, the OP was extremely derogatory toward Bolt and did in fact display the characteristics of a zealot. As you say, to each his own. Some will prefer M3, others for a variety of reasons will prefer Bolt EV. Both are OK.

 

[Chopr147]

No, the motor in an EV is not the motor in your milling machine.

First, look at the size of a 100hp EV motor. Now look at the size of a 100hp industrial electric motor.
And the industrial motor is low RPM, not mapped for variable drive nor regeneration, and it's air-cooled.

Cheapo industrial motor, 100HP - $2600:

HP 100
RPM 1775
Frame 405T
Voltage 208-230/460
Amps 253-229/115
Phase Three
Efficiency 94.5%
Shaft 2 7/8" x 7 1/4"
Weight 1273 lbs

EV motors are lighter, higher technology, more powerful, and expensive.

Part of the drivetrain of an EV is the battery because it's key to motor performance. So add the expensive lithium battery array, it's BMS, it's cooling system, and it's armor.

Now you need a way to recharge that battery without special ground equipment. On Board charger.

Now you need an Inverter/controller. Go price 80kW watercooled inverters/controllers.

Now you need to consider things you don't expect. EVs are heavier, so the frame/chassis is more expensive. The batteries are large and must be protected in case of collision. Not as cheap as protecting a gas tank.

But, you could take the simple path, several car companies make an EV out of their ICE cars. They do not expect to make a profit on the EVs, but must on the ICE cars.

Spark EV - $13k vs $25k.
Kia Soul EV- $16k vs $30k
Focus EV - $17k vs $29k

Now, it's a VERY competitive market, with many choices of 100 class EVs.
And the companies make hidden money selling each EV.
But you can see that a low power (100hp) EV driveline costs $12k more than an ICE build.

So what do you think a 200HP EV costs to build over a 200HP ICE? I'd think $15k.

IK it's different then a milling, not to be taken literally. We disagree on the calculations though. I do not look at the battery as part of the drivetrain, or theinveter etc..... An ICE gas tank would not be considered part of the drivetrain IMHO and that is how I see it. Some of the auto-makers are losing money on their EV's, so they make a compliance car and move-on. This is where Tesla is really making a large impact and it is interesting to watch.

 

[Footer]

I'm as big a Tesla fan as any and I certainly understand the frustration of the OP with all these articles written about companies outdoing Tesla. It's just how cars need to be marketed. The Bolt is competing for the pocketbooks of 400,000 Model 3 reservation holders plus regular new car buyers. But the fact-checkers don't have nearly as much to do compared to a presidential campaign.

I'm also a big Apple fan, even though I have a Nexus. Apple doesn't support Windows to meet my needs. But I appreciate how they changed the mobile phone industry. They deserve credit for what will probably be a 20 year run with the current technology. Thank God for competitors though. Otherwise, we'd still be using 3.5" screens.

I hope competitors do the same for Tesla (no, I'm not talking about increasing the size of the 17" screen).

Tesla will never be big enough to support what we all hope will be the future global EV market. I just hope they will be a successful company for years to come instead of only being a footnote in history.

 

[WannabeOwner]

Tesla will never be big enough to support what we all hope will be the future global EV market.

I don't share that view. I think that BMW, VW, MB et al will fail to make the transition and disappear from view, and Tesla, Apple, Google, A.N.Other, will dominate.

If I was a world class BEV engineer I reckon the offer I was made by Tesla, Apple, Google would be far more exciting than whatever any established, conservative, current mainstream marque would offer.

The structure IBM set up to create the PC was extraordinary, for an established company breaking new ground, but that seems rare to me compared to all the failed companies littering major technology transition events including the likes of Steam Ships failing to break into the Airline industry, Kodak, and so on.

 

[Footer]

The world vehicle market was 90 million vehicles last year. Too big for any one company. Many of those vehicles will always be ICE but most of them can be EV eventually. People like choice. Let's hope Tesla can get through their current cash issues, start making profit, and then they can make a dent in vehicle production. Other companies are not going to sit around.

 

[McRat]

We have been making modern BEV vehicles for 7 years now. There are what, <1 million total globally assuming all are still operational? Note I'm excluding EREV/PHEVs, they are a transitional technology.

This indeed is the point in time where a single company could be big enough to supply the world demand for BEVs. In the largest car buying market in the world (North America), Tesla is #1 producer of BEV vehicles, and only 1/2 their sales go to NA?

This is not saying that Tesla WILL dominate the global market for BEVs to become one the largest companies on earth, but they are in good placement to do it, and the time is right. Once BEV sales are 10% of the entire auto market it will probably be too late for a new company to push everybody else out of the EV market segment.

Something is certainly going to change. Toyota is the #1 car company and does not want to compete in the EV market. So much so, they release a Jokemobile (Mirai) and heavily lobby for Fuel Cell cars. In spite of the fact Toyota is not the tech leader in Fuel Cell technology (General Motors has Toyota's arse whipped in fuel cells research several times over).

 

[Footer]

I'm sure the demand for good EVs in all categories and price points far exceeds the current supply. Tesla only sells 2 car types at essentially 1 price point. In China there are a lot more EVs, mostly made by BYD, but they are not so good. Lots of electric bicycles and motor scooters too.

My point is the demand for EVs far exceeds the supply because at most price points and with the desired features the supply is zero. Just like the demand for iphones and clones was huge before they were announced in 2007. But nobody, other than Apple, knew it because they didn't exist at the time. However, now we can imagine the possibilities for EVs and Tesla can't meet the demand on their own.

I bet with the right EVs at the right price 10 million could be sold next year.

China is the largest car buying market in the world, not North America.

I have to leave to pick up my S90D now. No further comments for a while.

 

[wycolo]

The Spark EV is a rational car for its intended market: Local, 45 mile radius tethered to home.
The Bolt is a rational car for its intended market: Regional, 100 mile radius tethered to home.
Both cars are fun to drive, easy to park and get into and out of. Hatch allows easy utility access and a comfortable place to sit protected from sun and rain. Tethered to home since GM Board of Directors unable to finance some kind of widespread charging network.

The Tesla M3 is a rational car for its intended market: Regional, 100 mile radius tethered to home > OR < just go anywhere you want using SuperCharger Network. Car will be fun to drive and have unique classy look. For utility you could pull a small trailer when needed.
--

 

[McRat]

The Spark EV is a rational car for its intended market: Local, 45 mile radius tethered to home.
The Bolt is a rational car for its intended market: Regional, 100 mile radius tethered to home.
Both cars are fun to drive, easy to park and get into and out of. Hatch allows easy utility access and a comfortable place to sit protected from sun and rain. Tethered to home since GM Board of Directors unable to finance some kind of widespread charging network.

The Tesla M3 is a rational car for its intended market: Regional, 100 mile radius tethered to home > OR < just go anywhere you want using SuperCharger Network. Car will be fun to drive and have unique classy look. For utility you could pull a small trailer when needed.
--

Please look at today's CCS map before passing along FUD. In October 2016, there is support for most of California for the 80-100 mile BEVs, and pretty much all of California for the Bolt. There are now hundreds of the DCFCs for CCS in California, the world's largest car market, and it growing faster than all other standards combined. There is no adapter necessary for L2 overnight charging either assuming J1772. The increased miles per kWh over the existing EVs means that even 120v charging can be enough for certain areas.

There is over 100 CCS chargers on the coast of California alone. Way more than Tesla. That's an average of 1 location per 8 miles, as California is 800 miles tall. You can take 80 mile EVs from San Diego all the way north on CCS.

You are not going to want to pull a trailer on anything that requires excellent aerodynamics to achieve it's range.

By the time the Model 3 is released, it should be able to use SC, HPWC, CHAdeMO, CCS, and J1772 L2, and the Model and all the Teslas will have the greatest choices in charging locations.

CCS locations outnumber both CHAdeMO and SC locations right now. There were almost zero in 2013.

And? Way over 1/2 the EV charger locations (non-Tesla) are free, ChargePoint itself is 80% free. Mostly L2, but still free. That's ~25mph, so a 2 hour meeting is nothing to sneeze at.

So the often quoted, THERE IS NO WAY TO CHARGE CCS CARS AND GM HATES REMOTE CHARGING is not accurate. But it's one of those things, like "A Prius is a great car, fun to drive, peppy, handles great, and is dirt cheap!" that will never ever die because it's a Grassy Knoll statement. No proof is not as effective as repeating something 10,000 times. Like when they play a shiity song on the road, and a month later, you find yourself humming it. You can be brainwashed pretty easy by repetition.

 

[diamond.g]

Sadly @McRat the CCS Combo DCFC that currently exist aren't as fast as they need to be (IMO) for long distant trips.

 

[McRat]

Sadly @McRat the CCS Combo DCFC that currently exist aren't as fast as they need to be (IMO) for long distant trips.

There are no existing DCFC systems in place in number that are "fast enough" when compared to ICE. That's a 5 minute 500 mile recharge with no line. In fact, just yesterday I had to wash, fuel, and check our heavy hauler ICE. Driving through a wash, checking the oil and filters, adding 600 more miles to the range, took about 30 minutes from the time I left the warehouse, to the time I return to my desk.

I do not have a Model S, but perhaps somebody could join in about how long it takes to add 90 miles of range to the S 60 version on a SC.

Cars do NOT charge at 120kW for the entire charge, any more than a 3kW charger charges at 3kW the entire charge. It's just with the 120kW it's more pronounced. Your first stage is Amp Based, then Voltage based (slower), then Balance (very slow).

Sucks Less <> adequate, and it's one of the very few drawbacks of BEVs, perhaps the only drawback in many areas today. BEVs perform better, no cold start behavior, no loss of power at altitude, no shifting lag, no RPM climb required for power, no hot exhaust to ignite vegetation on dirt road areas, no turbo lag, no oil changes (on some), no poor city economy, no emissions testing, etc.

The recurring theme that the poor remote location refueling time on all BEVs overcomes any advantages of BEV's seems to now be a very, very important reason to quit BEV technology and return to ICE.

If we enthusiasts scream it loudly enough, perhaps we can eventually eliminate EVs entirely?

 

[3Victoria]

@McRat I think you protesteth too much. People have already shown that long distance travel with SCs is just fine. 5 min refuels for ICE may be possible but not common. Much to do about nothing. [ Apologies to Wm Shakespeare ]

 

[McRat]

@McRat I think you protesteth too much. People have already shown that long distance travel with SCs is just fine. 5 min refuels for ICE may be possible but not common. Much to do about nothing. [ Apologies to Wm Shakespeare ]

Sorry, but with >1 million mi all across the USA on 4/6/8/10 wheels, and another .25 milion on 2 wheels, I'm pretty familar with refueling cars, trucks, and bikes from California to Florida and most the points in between.

Look at a clock when you fuel. It might FEEL longer than 5 minutes, but 5 minutes is more than 34 gallons.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I do not have a Model S, but perhaps somebody could join in about how long it takes to add 90 miles of range to the S 60 version on a SC.

This is a well worn path, but just in case helpful I'll retread it

SC is about 400 miles per hour. You need to be starting at "empty", rather than "full", to achieve that (as you have already described).

However, the two processes are not identical, so worth also considering the difference points:

Fuel an ICE, for me, requires two things:

Fill the car (stand there to do that). Say 5 minutes.

Go into the "shop" to pay. In the UK that may well also be 5 minutes. Markup on Gas is tiny, so now we have mini-supermarkets in many of the gas stations; and the minimum number of people on tills; and the original checkout tills, which have no "space" to process a basket of groceries ... hence another 5 minutes. Sometimes its only a minute of course. The USA experience is probably better!!

Plus:

With BEV I have zero refuel time most days, as I leave home with a "full tank" of electricity.

If I have to recharge at Supercharger then I plug in and either go do stuff (Pee, Coffee, Shop) or I sit in the car and do stuff (EMails, read, sleep, etc.). The one thing I don't have to do is stand-and-fuel and stand-in-line-to-pay.

So, yes, longer to supercharge than to Gas but, overall, much less down-time - once you get used to it. Of course, you might just wind up drinking far more coffee, and eating far more doughnuts, which might not be a good thing!!

 

[McRat]

Yes, of course I was referring to remote location refueling, not the Best Advantage of an EV = "Wake Up Every Morning With A Full Tank".

In the USA you normally stick your CC in the pump to fuel. You go inside if you want a snack, coffee, or soda, or don't want the police to be able to track where you were, which could wreck your alibi and send you to prison.

EV Enthusiasts seem to keep harping on Remote Refueling Time and Limitations more than the ICE buyers do. We are our own worst enemy. People were driving cross country before there were any significant remote EV recharging infrastructure. They used RV park 240v outlets.

 

[WannabeOwner]

In the USA you normally stick your CC in the pump to fuel.

That would definitely save time. We do have that in some places, but I wonder why it is rare over here ... probably to try to get punters to buy "stuff" in the shop ... even where we have it on pumps I don't see many drivers bothering to use them, "habit" of going into the shop I suppose. Sheeple !

I was referring to remote location refueling

My guess is that for "most people" its rare enough to consider in its own right (against the benefit of leaving home with a full tank on all short-journey days). That said, looking at my Stats, I supercharged 9 times last month on 5 days, and Before-Tesla I would have said that a day with a 250 mile drive was a very rare thing for me (in UK). I have definitely done a couple of longer drives in Tesla, to visit something of interest, because it was less effort than ICE, and probably getting free SC fuel factored in my mind too!

Personally I think inconvenience of SC, on a relatively few occasions each month, is well offset by home fuelling each night. Also, in the UK there is a huge cost advantage [i..e high tax on Gas] of Electricity on off-peak - can be as much as an 8-fold difference - more so if I can gainfully use my time when charging at SC

Bit of a small sample size but looking at the TeslaFi logger stats:

Drives / Miles / SC Charges

September
110 / 1150 / 0
103 / 2963 / 9
127 / 1643 / 11
148 / 852 / 0
39 / 408 / 0
259 / 2872 / 21

August
139 / 1915 / 1
76 / 1820 / 3
204 / 2882 / 3
163 / 2310 / 1
88 / 1005 / 3
132 / 3090 / 22
62 / 796 / 3
163 / 989 / 10
120 1324 / 0

July
124 / 1327 / 1
107 / 1051 / 0
113 / 1303 / 1
79 / 1047 / 1
137 / 1108 / 0