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My prediction of autonomous vehicles

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That feels like it would increase traffic, but maybe its deceptive?
I would like to know why Tesla has not already implemented a Super Charger software routine where the car can automatically back up to the proper unused and compatible stall, meaning, if there is a car already at A-1, Use the next full powered charging stall, B-1
I still see members backing in crooked, hitting the Super Charger unit and limiting their charge by using mating stalls (A-1 & A-2)
If our cars can back into our garages now (and they will soon need to do this on their own, under the coming 'Ride Share', business model), we could be busy error proofing it, Now!
 
My god a lot of you tesla fanboys/girls need to realize something. While most people on here don't really like cars or driving (that's why they buy a tesla) there are MANY people that well never let humans be banned from driving and there always will be. So all this talk of banning humans driving, removing stop lights and stop signs and lanes, needs to stop because its just not going to happen ever. At least in anyone currently alive or the near futures lifetime.
 
What I don't understand in the equation is how autonomy would reduce traffic. It could render it smoother (someday, when there are no other human drivers anymore) and it could (immediately) alleviate parking problems, but wouldn't we also all tomorrow be tempted to use an autonomous car much more often, including for journeys which we now do by plane/train/tram/subway/bus?

That autonomy would reduce traffic is something I often read (so there's bound to be truth in it!) but I don't really understand why and how...

Autonomy can mean better driving with fewer collisions, reducing congestion and speeding up journeys. Reducing journey times effectively reduces traffic volume.

Autonomy can mean more convenient, cheaper, faster buses: better bus ridership reduces the number of vehicles on the road, reducing traffic volume.

Autonomy can make taxis cheaper, turn day and weekend rental into taxi rides. Taxi pooling becomes cheaper than car pooling.
 
there are MANY people that well never let humans be banned from driving and there always will be

I feel differently about this. I'm a keen driver, used to tear around the roads in my Youth! and now my view may be influenced by the fact that I'm knocking on a bit, but I think once Autonomous gains a foothold manual-driving will quickly decline. I think the perspective of people who, currently, want to drive manually will change too. My thinking may be coloured by our island being crowded and opportunities to put my foot down are increasingly thwarted by increasing cars-on-road, increasing speed-cameras, and also increasing perception of anti-social driving (driving at excessive speed etc.) being unacceptable. If I lived in a country with wide open spaces I might think differently - although if that country had dead straight roads, and highways, I'd be back to wanting the car to just get me from A to B by itself.
 
I feel differently about this. I'm a keen driver, used to tear around the roads in my Youth! and now my view may be influenced by the fact that I'm knocking on a bit, but I think once Autonomous gains a foothold manual-driving will quickly decline. I think the perspective of people who, currently, want to drive manually will change too. My thinking may be coloured by our island being crowded and opportunities to put my foot down are increasingly thwarted by increasing cars-on-road, increasing speed-cameras, and also increasing perception of anti-social driving (driving at excessive speed etc.) being unacceptable. If I lived in a country with wide open spaces I might think differently - although if that country had dead straight roads, and highways, I'd be back to wanting the car to just get me from A to B by itself.
Think about it. There is no logical reason for someone to buy a sport car even today. I know that there are some exceptions but in general, they are expensive to buy, expensive to maintain, uncomfortable to drive daily, can't park them in very many places for fear of damage, very little practicality like carrying many people or cargo, in general get really bad gas mileage, hard to see out of, and the list goes on. But people buy them for a few simple reason that are not going to go away because logically, they should have already gone away a long time ago. They are fun to drive, look nice, are prestigious, and they like the feeling of a sports car and driving it and hundreds of thousands are sold each year. (combine that with people who own trucks that will need to be able to drive for utility purposes and the number is rather large)

I see autonomous technologies to enhance the driving experience. All of the automatic cabs and ubers will get a lot of the traffic of the road allowing me to drive with less traffic. The increased autonomous safety tech allows me to drive without fear of me or someone else damaging my car I worked so hard to pay for. Im not denying that there will be A LOT of people that will give up driving and never look back, because there will. Im just saying we are going to have to find a middle ground for the MANY people that will still want to drive. For the people that start looking at the math and say that we should ban humans for safety reasons will be met with an alternate solution. Have the autonomous tech still running in the background even when the human is still driving. Think about how our autonomous braking and lane keep work today, just put them both on steroids and there is your solution. If braking uses the same radar as a fully autonomous car does, it could brake to avoid anything a self driving car would, combine that with fully automatic active avoidance and the safety level just skyrocketed. If we have an active lane keep assist that prevents you from changing lanes or going off the road when its not safe, combined with the braking, we could achieve the level of safety that some people are looking for while achieving a middle ground. I have another way to put it and it uses what elon said. He said that starting soon when all teslas will be equipped with fully self driving hardware, the computer will be in the background seeing when it could have intervened to prevent a accident but it won't intervene. Just in the future make it so it does intervene, just a subtle way (unless needed in a dramatic way) so it does not become annoying. If you want to force everyone to be in self driving mode to clear traffic or during rush hour, that could be done as well.

A lot of people have said with the new autonomous tech, we could allow cars to drive much faster that we do now. If the cars are just as safe in manual driving mode as is self driving mode (using the method above) then there you go, you can drive like you used to want to when you were young. At high speeds and it could be allowed! But maybe when there is below a certain amount of traffic, we will have to wait and see.

I think some day all cars will be required to have fully autonomous tech in them so that can at least do the things above that I listed. Some people that love to drive will, at times, not want to and then they can just flip a switch and let the computer drive. (ill do it sometimes, im not denying it) But there will always be many people for various reasons, that will want to have an "off" switch (even if its not completely off like I said) when they want. I think we need self driving cars. People that can't drive or can't own a car. People that live in very crowded cities where its just dumb to own a car. It would be much cheaper that an uber (looking forward to that). But I still want to drive when I want, so I want both options.
 
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My god a lot of you tesla fanboys/girls need to realize something. While most people on here don't really like cars or driving (that's why they buy a tesla) there are MANY people that well never let humans be banned from driving and there always will be. So all this talk of banning humans driving, removing stop lights and stop signs and lanes, needs to stop because its just not going to happen ever. At least in anyone currently alive or the near futures lifetime.

How about everyone banned from driving and everyone shares vehicles from a state provided pool. Each vehicle is the same color.
 
They are fun to drive, look nice, are prestigious, and they like the feeling of a sports car and driving it and hundreds of thousands are sold each year.

Sure. I too have got a turbo-nutter-bastard in the garage. V8, 1000 lbs, goes like a rocket, open top, fabulous noise. Miles last year? zero ... that's just me of course.

But what you are describing is in a world where Autonomous doesn't yet exist ... I see that changing when it does. There will be successful people that will still want Bling though ... something to go with the Super-yacht and Mega-mansion. Not sure what form that would take if all cars were autonomous - perhaps just the ultimate in coach-building and comfort. No need to worry about the car getting scratched / damaged in an autonomous driving world.

allowing me to drive with less traffic

Not sure how Autonomous creates less traffic? (I'd love it to be so though)

The increased autonomous safety tech allows me to drive without fear of me or someone else damaging my car

My problem is you [i.e. any manual driver] coming towards me - or following me and driving dangerously. I am at risk of having your accident, but you describe a solution to that:

Have the autonomous tech still running in the background even when the human is still driving

I can see that that could work, but it sure doesn't right now. Lots of time when AP is braking I am overriding with accelerator - I know the guy in front is just about to accelerate, car in front of him is pulling over, so I don't want AP to over-brake.

If braking uses the same radar as a fully autonomous car does, it could brake to avoid anything a self driving car would

Sorry, still not seeing how that would work. That is the opposite of now - now if I press a pedal, or swerve, I override AP. If the car overrode me would driving a luxury sports car be any fun? You are coming up to a blind bend, I'm just around the corner, I've stopped because there is something blocking the road. In manual mode you come around the corner, of course with no way of knowing there is a problem ahead, and you are (let's say) too fast to stop. In New-AP mode you approach the corner at max speed but the car, using V2V Comms, knows there is a problem ahead and starts braking. You have no idea why, you will either a) press accelerator, b) Try to press accelerator but can't and/or c) be frustrated. I don't think it will be anything like the exhilarating experience that it is currently

Is New-AP going to restrict manual-mode to the speed limits too? I reckon it will.

Just in the future make it so it does intervene

OK, so I'm happy to assume that this is technically possible. It is, however, a diversion from getting from here to fully autonomous- i.e. instead of machine having control we now need some new software where machine just overrides human when necessary. For that software to be developed there would have to be a demand (a big enough demand). I wonder if any vendor will want to bother? Big risk market, small market size. It might just be a happy serendipity side-effect of building the software for fully-autonomous, but (I'm a software engineer) I think it unlikely.

with the new autonomous tech, we could allow cars to drive much faster that we do now

Reducing travel time for A-to-B would be great. Different speed limits for different cars maybe (didn;t they have that in Italy once-upon-a-time - Ferrari limit faster than Fiat? :)? Antonymous cars allowed to travel (say) closer together, and faster, thereby reducing road congestion and improving journey times. Would we then allow manual drivers to speed (legally) too?

Whilst I like the reduced journey time I think, sadly, that speed limits will be set, in part, by a trade-off of energy-used and miles-travelled. Clearly German Autobahns still have unrestricted speed sections, so hopefully I am wrong on that point.
 
At first, I believe, that car software will try to mimic humans while staying clear of other erratic human behavior. It will also mean learning nuances of different municipalities road construction idiosyncracies. At first, this will seem like an AMAZING success. This will be followed by a few major accidents killing 50 or more people all at once. The news will be jumping all over the stories and politicians will be calling for more regulations. Then the pressure will really be on the car manufacturers to do a spectacular job. This will lead to standardized testing.

During the next phase, autonomous cars will become amazingly safe. People who look at the math will start pushing for outlawing human drivers. Moreover, the car manufacturers will suggest that without humans on the road we could improve safety and efficiency by 3X. For example I could see cars packing together, driving at 90 miles per hour with only one centimeter between them all.

At this point, you will start to see many changes in laws and businesses. Drinking and driving laws will start to change. Wet bars, desks, and big screen TVs will be what people want in a new car. Wealthy children may get their own car to take them to school. Less well to do will use services like Uber rather than owning their own car.

I think airport parking will be a thing of the past. Gas stations will only be on interstates. McDonald's will be the largest vehicle charging company. Rental properties might need to redo their electrical, giving some of their residents chargers.
Good luck with that.
Jurisdictions are so slow in adopting rules that I don't think fully autonomous cars will be permitted on our streets for about 20 years.
There will be too many restrictions put forth on the Tesla AP 2.0 that it essentially, won't be any different than AP 1.0.
You will still have to touch the wheel every 4 minutes or so which defeats the whole purpose of it.
 
Jurisdictions are so slow in adopting rules that I don't think fully autonomous cars will be permitted on our streets for about 20 years.
Like I've said before most places in the world haven't outlawed it. You can very well get behind the wheel of a fully self driving car tomorrow and in those places there's nothing preventing you from letting the car go at it as long as your hands are on/near the wheel and you're maintaining full attention. If you are following the laws that are in place then you aren't breaking the law...

When something is unregulated it doesn't mean it's illegal.
 
What I don't understand in the equation is how autonomy would reduce traffic. It could render it smoother (someday, when there are no other human drivers anymore) and it could (immediately) alleviate parking problems, but wouldn't we also all tomorrow be tempted to use an autonomous car much more often, including for journeys which we now do by plane/train/tram/subway/bus?

That autonomy would reduce traffic is something I often read (so there's bound to be truth in it!) but I don't really understand why and how...

 
@Green Pete - that's a good video but it makes a fundamental assumption - that overall driver hours do not increase with automation. I believe self driving cars are going to massively increase the number of hours we spend on the road - because driving long distances for work or pleasure will be less of a hassle. I think this increase in driver hours will negate the traffic-flow savings of self driving cars.
 
@Green Pete - that's a good video but it makes a fundamental assumption - that overall driver hours do not increase with automation. I believe self driving cars are going to massively increase the number of hours we spend on the road - because driving long distances for work or pleasure will be less of a hassle. I think this increase in driver hours will negate the traffic-flow savings of self driving cars.
I work in a cube... that's not going to change for me on a daily basis. I'd imagine others are in the same boat.

My time on the road only increases to the degree the self driving car would go the speed limit instead of my undisclosed speed which may or may not exceed the speed limit.
 
I work in a cube... that's not going to change for me on a daily basis. I'd imagine others are in the same boat.

My time on the road only increases to the degree the self driving car would go the speed limit instead of my undisclosed speed which may or may not exceed the speed limit.

Ever sat down and done the math on how much time speeding is saving you?
 
Ever sat down and done the math on how much time speeding is saving you?
I have ... yeah, the time savings is disappointing. It does, however, keep me engaged in the driving task whereas otherwise my mind would wander. If I got into an accident because my mind was daydreaming, then there would be a considerable time difference.

This is why I'm looking forward to self driving cars. It eliminates the need for speed and I don't have to give it my full attention.
 
I have ... yeah, the time savings is disappointing. It does, however, keep me engaged in the driving task whereas otherwise my mind would wander. If I got into an accident because my mind was daydreaming, then there would be a considerable time difference.

This is why I'm looking forward to self driving cars. It eliminates the need for speed and I don't have to give it my full attention.

I agree - I'm speeding to stay alert, but full of cop sighting anxiety, or not speeding but bored to the point I get sleepy. If I could just surf the internet on long stretches of road rather than trying to stay focused, I'd take a lot more trips.
 
I speed because I consider it a safer way to drive.
If I'm going faster than most people in the road most of my threats are in front of me in full view.
If I'm driving slowly, the threats are all around me and must be monitored from all directions, most with poor visibility.
Also when I'm passing other cars I understand my physical relationship with those vehicles more clearly and I know that area adjacent to my car is clear of obstructions.
 
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I speed because I consider it a safer way to drive.
If I'm going faster than most people in the road most of my threats are in front of me in full view.
If I'm driving slowly, the threats are all around me and must be monitored from all directions, most with poor visibility.
Also when I'm passing other cars I understand my physical relationship with those vehicles more clearly and I know that area adjacent to my car is clear of obstructions.

I agree