My prediction on Model 3/Tesla

[Shock-On-T]

Wife decided to skip her model 3 and take refund
Early line waiter/tesla ms owners. She's getting a 2012 panamera turbo with warranty for about the same price the model 3 would cost us and the panny is a much much bettter car overall. Can't even compare the two. Good move on her part.

Oh yes, while she's standing in the dark pumping fuel into it she can ponder the repair costs of an out-of-warranty Porsche. I've heard the parts are quite reasonable...

 

[turnbowm]

Tesla is burning cash at a serious rate. In the past, capital was raised by issuing equity-based stock. Most recently, however, unsecured grade B junk bonds totaling $1.8 billion were issued. At a 5.25% interest rate, interest payments will be almost $100 million per year and at the end of term (8 years), $1.8 billion will be due. The Model 3 will prove to be a make-or-break effort for Tesla. Haven't cancelled my reservarion, but starting to get nervous.

 

[EXOTIC1]

QUOTE="ShockOnT, post: 2384679, member: 49725"]Oh yes, while she's standing in the dark pumping fuel into it she can ponder the repair costs of an out-of-warranty Porsche. I've heard the parts are quite reasonable...[/QUOTE]

it is what it is....
and the panamera turbo is a far superior vehicle in every aspect.
with a 3 year cpo warranty
the m3 will still be a great car

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

QUOTE="ShockOnT, post: 2384679, member: 49725"]Oh yes, while she's standing in the dark pumping fuel into it she can ponder the repair costs of an out-of-warranty Porsche. I've heard the parts are quite reasonable...

it is what it is....
and the panamera turbo is a far superior vehicle in every aspect.
with a 3 year cpo warranty
the m3 will still be a great car[/QUOTE]

Every aspect? Really? Maybe you should preface your statements with "In my opinion". I personally find a Leaf more appealing than a Panamera.

 

[ProphetM]

it is what it is....
and the panamera turbo is a far superior vehicle in every aspect.
with a 3 year cpo warranty
the m3 will still be a great car

I had no idea that a Porsche Panamera Turbo not only has better reliability, lower repair and maintenance costs, but also has lower emissions than a Model 3. That's pretty amazing. How does it get negative emissions? Does it suck up the emissions of other cars as it drives around?

 

[MotoEvCA]

Look forward to revisiting this conversation with you in six months to a year

Americans hate waiting for anything

When one resorts to generalities one tends to lose any credibility very early.

1. Each startup you listed had ongoing problems with body structures, engines, and core reliability - the vehicle failed to run. Most (not all) Tesla consumer issues to-date tend to be trim alignment, and part (supplier) problems. The company is growing very fast and this always causes growing pains throughout the company (sales, service, marketing, finance). FCA is working hard to maintain market share and customer relevance despite government assistance.
2. Many Americans are intelligent and understand young Tesla is growing / learning the business and is making improvements over time. Fact: Ford has been in business over 100 years and is still grappling with quality control

1. Consistently getting customers to 'pony up' thousands of dollars in reservations for a vehicle is a condition any auto manufacturer would love to 'suffer from'. It demonstrates a vote of confidence and sends a message to the investor community.
2. GM has had two or more attempts to attract customers to their PHEV / BEV offerings and there is no problem meeting the relatively low demand despite having a 200+ AER vehicle to offer.

I want them to succeed and help change the planet

Glad to see you want Tesla to succeed and I would suggest investing more time to understand the automotive industry, the challenges ALL manufacturers face, and the effective risk management approaches Tesla has taken in regard to the Model 3 production release.

I would recommend the following podcast: The Tesla Show
A very intelligent take on Tesla, the industry, and EV competitor test drives.
Nissan Leaf Drive Anxiety and Model 3 Details

Update: I think Tesla is doing pretty darn good.

NHTSA Probing Ford Fusion Steering Wheel Detachments

 

[eleison]

Agreed. Tesla's model 3 will either "make or break" the company. This would be their "triple axel, Triple toe" moment. Their "one shot, one kill" moment.

There are a few things Tesla is known. First it was for making electric cars. However, now a lot of other companies are making electric cars. Tesla is also known for creating autonomous driving vehicles. However, more and more companies are getting into that field and some are even exceeding Telsa in execution.

Tesla, as of right now, is only the king of one thing. The leader in selling high end, niche electric cars. That's it. They are also known for losing money. They don't have the suppy chain working. They don't have the manufacturing process hammered out. They are a young company that makes mistakes, and will continue to make mistakes. However, enough buyers and stock holders excuse tesla because Tesla is a "green company" and Tesla wants to "make the world a better place to live." Great... but, as the competition heats up. There will be other companies that make electric cars that will "save the planet"... Other companies that will make autonomous vehicles that will save people from getting into accidents.

Tesla's advantages are slowly being eroded away. Think about it. A person can buy a Chevy bolt, right now for $36k and it can go 238 miles. This is with out a gigafactory... This is without the misaligned body panels.. the prone to error gull wing doors..this is without the supplier issues.... this is without the "waiting for my vehicle for 6 months because parts are not available so now I'm driving a pinto".....

Just think of a world where Toyota, Honda, etc. "get with the program". They are slowing realizing the threat of Tesla. They never really took Tesla seriously. And to some extent, they really don't now. Individually, IIRC these companies make more cars in a single week, than Tesla makes in a year. From their prospective, Tesla is laughable... But no matter how laughable, they are slowly, and in a lackadaisy fashion trying to counter act this threat. I'm sure they see themselves as a old grizzled prized fighter who is still the world champion, and Tesla as the young, no name upstart that wants a chance at the title.

Model 3 has to be a grand slam, or it's back to being a niche player for Tesla. They need the model 3 to be stellar. This is the first car that will introduce Tesla as just not a niche player, but a viable alternative to the big car companies. If it sucks, that is what the public will know Tesla for.

 

[ninefiveone]

A typical program from approval to V1 is 180 weeks, including parallel development of the vehicle and facilitizing the plant, although some may do better, and when the clock starts can be a matter of debate if the platform is carryover or new. If a partner assisted with M3 as a consultant now, or under the hypothetical of asset purchase under bankruptcy, it would not be a program restart...it would be to take the program forward from status, likely with much of the current team, plus new management. There would not be a reason for a delay of such magnitude.

Correct, 180 weeks is 3.5 years. 1-2 years is a substantial reduction in that timeframe. There is no situation where you bring in an outside party at this point and get anything less than a 1-2 year delay. It would take at least 6 months for an outside party to come up to speed, and even begin to start making changes. Another 6 months to a year for those changes to have impact.

 

[internalaudit]

Partnering with an assembler like Magna is one way to surmount this problem. News about this potential partnership in Europe had already hit the media a few weeks ago.

Another is fixing the supply chain issues, which I have no idea how to go about.

 

[ElecFan]

Like they always do when they are thwarted: make it themselves.

 

[Dr. J]

If it sucks

It won't suck.

 

[arcus]

Let's not forget that Tesla is no longer car manufacturer only. So even if the "motors" division might be going through some hurdles, the "energy" part is only going to pick up.

 

[electracity]

If I had to make a prediction, it would be that that the Model 3 "S curve" will be added to the long list of wishful thinking.

I think Tesla will get to a production rate of a couple of thousand M3 per month next year. I have a hard time imagining them making a couple thousand cars per week while maintaining adequate quality.

They struggle today with consistent premium quality paint on S/X. What would 5-10K M3 per week look like?

 

[ElecFan]

If I had to make a prediction, it would be that that the Model 3 "S curve" will be added to the long list of wishful thinking.

I think Tesla will get to a production rate of a couple of thousand M3 per month next year. I have a hard time imagining them making a couple thousand cars per week while maintaining adequate quality.

They struggle today with consistent premium quality paint on S/X. What would 5-10K M3 per week look like?

The S-curve is about the timing and not the amount of scaling. I don't see why Tesla couldn't scale production up to any number. It's just a matter of how much they invest in means of production. Since they are ambitious and demand is pretty high, I can see them reaching a couple thousand cars per week eventually. Knowing Elon's optimistic nature, I assume this to lag behind his estimate considerably.

 

[VIKING26]

I don’t recall GM going through “production hell” with the Bolt.

How many reservations did GM have? The Bolt started with 500 a month and is just over 2000 a month. Not too difficult for a legacy auto maker.

I agree that the Model 3 is make or break for Tesla. If Tesla fails it'll send ripples across the auto industry and the electrification of vehicles will definitely slow down. My worry is that legacy auto makers will use it as a justification to continue to build ICE engines or not push to sell EVs.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Fiskar

Fisker, with an -er. with an -ar, you're talking about scissors.

 

[ohmman]

Mod note: 4 posts moved to politics quarantine.

Leave politics out of it.

 

[McHoffa]

Tesla's advantages are slowly being eroded away. Think about it. A person can buy a Chevy bolt, right now for $36k and it can go 238 miles. This is with out a gigafactory... This is without the misaligned body panels.. the prone to error gull wing doors..this is without the supplier issues.... this is without the "waiting for my vehicle for 6 months because parts are not available so now I'm driving a pinto".....

Tesla still has a few years before anyone catches up to their advantages. The Bolt is a crappier car than the Model 3 and starts at a higher base price and doesn't even include "fast" charging standard. It's a Chevy hatchback, which normally costs $20k if it's not electric. It's ok, but I'd rather buy the $29k, 160 mile 2018 Leaf than the $38k, 238 mile Bolt, because either one of them would only work as our second car. Why? Because of the one distinct MAJOR advantage Tesla has and will have for at least a few years: the Supercharger network. The Bolt would have to get 600+ miles per charge to be my primary car without that supercharger network. Yeah, it gets up to 250+ miles, but it takes 2 hours and 23 minutes to recharge on a DC fast charger. There is no way I would take our twice a year trips in that car. Three 2+ hour stops? No thanks.

I do agree about the parts situation. They need to start producing extra parts to fill repair orders.

 

[electracity]

How many reservations did GM have? The Bolt started with 500 a month and is just over 2000 a month. Not too difficult for a legacy auto maker.

What does the number of reservations have to do with "production hell"? GM had employees driving pre-production Bolts the summer of 2016. No need to claim make the false claim that the Bolt was in production. GM also delivered the Bolt on schedule without needing to claim of going through "production hell".

Musk is a drama queen. The goal of modern manufacturing is boring repetition. Perhaps he is a poor match for the reality of this sort of business.

 

[jhs_7645]

What does the number of reservations have to do with "production hell"? GM had employees driving pre-production Bolts the summer of 2016. No need to claim make the false claim that the Bolt was in production. GM also delivered the Bolt on schedule without needing to claim of going through "production hell".

Musk is a drama queen. The goal of modern manufacturing is boring repetition. Perhaps he is a poor match for the reality of this sort of business.

Here's a quiz: One of these companies declared bankruptcy in the last 10 years

• GM
• Tesla

Tesla might or might not struggle to get the Model 3 up to production volumes
GM certainly does not have a problem scaling mfg.

If I were to bet with my $$ on a company that I think has a better business strategy for the future, it's Tesla.. not GM. You are free to bet on whomever you'd like