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My Tesla Investment Thesis

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Frank

This is an excellent post, many thanks for the huge research effort you have made here! Here are some thoughts after the first reading
  • Your uber-bull case share price of $4223 @ 5 years out matches the 5 year price of $4000 in the ARKInvest super-bull model, so you are in pretty good company mate. They wisely don’t (publicly) extend their model out beyond 5 years, because the numbers just get super nutty from there, and the are already copping a massive amount of flack
    • I always smile when I see Cathie or Tasha calmly explaining their thesis to disbelieving CNBC, because I know that they are very comfortable with their predictions
  • Do you follow Tony Seba? His latest RethinkX report on Transportation has some profound research and short/medium term predictions that back up your thinking but expand on the wider implications for the auto and fossil fuel industries and world economies. Well worth a read

  • Tony Seba and RethinkX predict that TaaS (Transport as a Service) will be a real thing somewhere in 2021, and when it happens the bottom will drop out of the Fossil Fuel and ICE markets overnight.
  • I think he needs to update his report to reflect the Telsa Autonomy Day and Tesla’s massive lead in FSD development
  • I believe that the tipping point will be the moment the general public and Wall Street realise that Musk is not kidding, and that Tesla Network and robo taxis will really happen soon. This bombshell could happen after a very compelling large-scale demonstration etc by Tesla, could even be soon
  • Wall Street will suddenly realise that Tesla has a near-infinite market and near-infinite revenue and profit potential because they are so far ahead, and that should be spectacular for longs
  • The public will realise that ICE is dead, and hold off buying their new ICE car causing massive overnight disruption to the ICE industry

Thanks! Tony Seba sounds like an interesting guy. I'll try to check out some of those things when I have time.

Yeah, I too think that the disconnect between the stock price and Tesla's outlook is at an all-time high. Autonomy could very well be a catalyst, but I think further scaling of production (Giga 3 and Model Y) and stronger cash flows might also wake people up in the next 12-24 months. Add onto that the worries about a potential recession, and there's definitely interesting times ahead for Tesla stock.