My Tesla Story - and why a Model S is less expensive than a Honda Odyssey

[pl804]

I'm a new Tesla owner, and wrote up my Tesla story on this website:

Tesla Model S - Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

It includes a link to a cost of ownership model that was a big factor in my purchase decision.

Would love feedback from the community!

 

[rjcbox]

Nice work!

 

[pl804]

Nice work!

Thanks, rjcbox!

 

[Discoducky]

I came to that exact conclusion as well. Odyssey vs 60kWh S. But was guessing on a whole bunch. We are 20k miles in and its looking like we could already be cheaper than a touring Odyssey as the car hasn't really cost is much to drive with so much free charging and depreciation is trending very well.

happy driving!

 

[rolosrevenge]

Hm, I'll have to run your spreadsheet for the 60 kWh config that I would like. If it truly is cheaper, I may have to get it when my other car inevitably dies.

 

[pl804]

I came to that exact conclusion as well. Odyssey vs 60kWh S. But was guessing on a whole bunch. We are 20k miles in and its looking like we could already be cheaper than a touring Odyssey as the car hasn't really cost is much to drive with so much free charging and depreciation is trending very well.

happy driving!

Great to hear your story. I do miss, however, the RES options for the Ody. I'd love a synchronized dual-screen option with front seat playback controls. I've been searching but haven't found anything reasonable for the Tesla. There was the iMagnet tablet mount, but the mfgr no longer sells it. So still on the search.

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Hm, I'll have to run your spreadsheet for the 60 kWh config that I would like. If it truly is cheaper, I may have to get it when my other car inevitably dies.

Curious to see how it looks - I think it should be pretty solidly in Tesla camp.

 

[David_Cary]

Come on. Saving 20k on depreciation. So a $45k Ody after 8 years is worth $10k and the $85k Tesla is worth $70k. If Tesla is successful long term, 8 years from now a comparable car to the Model S new should cost $50k so an 8 year old one would be lucky to garner $30k.

For your next trick, living in a 5000 sqft ocean front mansion is cheaper than living in a 1000 sqft apartment.

 

[gglockner]

Enjoy your Tesla. But it is silly to justify the Model S in terms of cost. Justify it because you like it, or you want to use less oil. But of you try to justify it in terms of cost, it looks silly - there are many other fine cars that are comfortable and cheaper - even if gasoline doubles in cost.

 

[andrewket]

The OPs numbers seem a bit off. Having said that, I sold our sienna minivan which had a v6 gas guzzler for a volt. From a fuel perspective it's night and day. Two very different cars though. I definitely gave up some flexibility. The volt is driven about 65 miles and charges twice per day. 99% EV.

 

[lolachampcar]

PL804,
Nice write up. Now, if you do the numbers on owner/builder solar and then plug those into your cost of energy

 

[pgiralt]

Come on. Saving 20k on depreciation. So a $45k Ody after 8 years is worth $10k and the $85k Tesla is worth $70k. If Tesla is successful long term, 8 years from now a comparable car to the Model S new should cost $50k so an 8 year old one would be lucky to garner $30k.

For your next trick, living in a 5000 sqft ocean front mansion is cheaper than living in a 1000 sqft apartment.

Did you actually look at his model? He projects exactly what you stated - that an 8 year old Model S would be worth $30k. His numbers look pretty sound. The gas prices might be a little high (for this area) but his electricity prices are high too, so I think that averages out. In general I agree that the resale value will be the biggest variable as to whether it ends up being more or less expensive and it is pretty difficult to come up with that number given how fast the technology is moving. That said, I think $30k seems pretty reasonable for a Model S 8 years from now.

 

[pl804]

Come on. Saving 20k on depreciation. So a $45k Ody after 8 years is worth $10k and the $85k Tesla is worth $70k. If Tesla is successful long term, 8 years from now a comparable car to the Model S new should cost $50k so an 8 year old one would be lucky to garner $30k.

For your next trick, living in a 5000 sqft ocean front mansion is cheaper than living in a 1000 sqft apartment.

Cool! I used $30,160 for residual value after 8 years.

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The OPs numbers seem a bit off. Having said that, I sold our sienna minivan which had a v6 gas guzzler for a volt. From a fuel perspective it's night and day. Two very different cars though. I definitely gave up some flexibility. The volt is driven about 65 miles and charges twice per day. 99% EV.

Thanks, andrewket. Welcome any input into more accurate numbers. I've been adjusting them with input from experts.

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PL804,
Nice write up. Now, if you do the numbers on owner/builder solar and then plug those into your cost of energy

1st of all, thanks, lolachampcar, for all the help while shopping - I actually need to edit the site to give you proper props.

I'm actually scoping out solar now and trying to see how this influences matters. I spoke with the former CTO of SolarCity on Fri., and have started comparing figures from SunPower, Cobalt, and my local roofer.

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Did you actually look at his model? He projects exactly what you stated - that an 8 year old Model S would be worth $30k. His numbers look pretty sound. The gas prices might be a little high (for this area) but his electricity prices are high too, so I think that averages out. In general I agree that the resale value will be the biggest variable as to whether it ends up being more or less expensive and it is pretty difficult to come up with that number given how fast the technology is moving. That said, I think $30k seems pretty reasonable for a Model S 8 years from now.

Thanks for clarifying, pgiralt. Yes, I am using California/Silicon Valley gas prices and Palo Alto electricity. That's a good point - the discrepancy will probably be a little less with lower fuel prices.

 

[David_Cary]

He said that a Model S saves $20k in depreciation vs a Honda Ody. That is what made no sense.

But as I look at the spreadsheet - he does have $30k as residual.

So something doesn't add up.

A $90k car that is $30k after 8 years but the NPV is $40k - despite $60k in depreciation.

 

[Muzzman1]

Great info! Thanks!

Any Way you can publish the google doc so we can download and plug in some of our own values?? Thanks!!

 

[pl804]

He said that a Model S saves $20k in depreciation vs a Honda Ody. That is what made no sense.

But as I look at the spreadsheet - he does have $30k as residual.

So something doesn't add up.

A $90k car that is $30k after 8 years but the NPV is $40k - despite $60k in depreciation.

You are totally right. I should've put these on opposite sides. I'll update it later today and report back. Thanks for catching that.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Isn't the NPV for any car going to be negative? All they do is depreciate and use resources... And for the electricity use, shouldn't that be from the wall (~400/500Wh/mile)?

 

[tga]

Great info! Thanks!

Any Way you can publish the google doc so we can download and plug in some of our own values?? Thanks!!

+1 - For me, gas is cheaper and electricity is more expensive. Plus, my miles/year is much higher.

 

[pl804]

Isn't the NPV for any car going to be negative? All they do is depreciate and use resources... And for the electricity use, shouldn't that be from the wall (~400/500Wh/mile)?

Yup, all negative. Was lazy so didn't put negatives everywhere but good point. Will add to notes on the model, incl. specs for the S I ordered.

For electricity use, used 3 Mi per kWh so 333 Wh per mile. This seemed in line with what others were reporting. Are you seeing 400-500 Wh per mile on your S?

 

[tga]

Yup, all negative. Was lazy so didn't put negatives everywhere but good point. Will add to notes on the model, incl. specs for the S I ordered.

For electricity use, used 3 Mi per kWh so 333 Wh per mile. This seemed in line with what others were reporting. Are you seeing 400-500 Wh per mile on your S?

You use 333 Wh/mi from the pack. But it takes more than that to charge the pack, due to charging losses (primarily heat losses in wire, charger, and battery). I have no idea what the total drawn from the outlet is per mile.

 

[David99]

I'm pretty confident the resale value will be good. Increasing gas prices will make ICE cars less attractive in the future. The Model S is a wonderful premium car that can and most probably will be easy to upgrade with better battery technology unlike other EVs. This will keep the value of the Model S.

The cost savings over gas/petrol depend so much on how much you drive. It can be a lot more than in these calculations. In the 18 days I have owned Model S I already drove 2800 miles and saved aprox $500 on gas. Most of my miles are long distance trips with Superchargers. I don't have a home charger so I depend 100% on public charging. I have found many free chargers in the areas I frequent.

There are of course emotional reasons to buy this car and reasons connected to climate change, pollution, foreign oil and all these things. But even if you look at it from a finacial only perspective the Model S looks pretty good.