As an MCU1 owner that is near death I've thought about how this will play out for the company as a whole and have come up with the following scenarios. Of course all hinges on the outcome of the NHTSA investigation.
1. NHTSA rules against Tesla and calls it a safety issue and forces a recall. This is the worst possible outcome for Tesla. Not only will they have to fix/replace faulty MCU1's but reimburse owners that paid out of pocket to replace dead MCU1's. Financially it will be a disaster but more so, the stock price will suffer. Bad press and articles questioning Tesla's build quality, longetivity and questioning building a car that relies so heavily on the center screen. Potential buyers may be scared away with the design fault and Tesla's handling of the situation. Expect a nice drop in the stock which I'm sure will eventually recover, but in the short term will hurt Tesla.
2. NHTSA rules in favor of Tesla. Obviously Tesla is angling and hoping for this outcome. They recently changed the MCU replacement warranty to 2 years vs 4 years. So they expect the replacement's to die and don't want to cover the cost. Stock will remain high and the issue will be swept away. Sure they may lose older owners but it will be a drop in the bucket for them.
3. Of course Tesla could forgo the risk of option 1, which IMO since all Elon cares about is the stock price anymore they should go with this option. Issue a voluntary recall and acknowledge that when MCU1 was designed they didn't forsee this issue since the technology was unheard of at the time in a car. Analyze MCU's remotely and determine which are closest to death and Give owners the option of upgrading to MCU2 at their own expense or receive a new MCU1 (redesigned with new emmc (this is an inexpensive part as proven by EVfixme) when your MCU is near end of the rated life. Tesla would pull the old MCU1's and send them off to receive the new emmc which is rated to last longer. This option ensures Tesla doesn't get bombarded trying to replace all the MCU1's at once and prioritizes the older owners with MCU1's near failure. If your MCU lasts 7 years then Tesla doesn't have to replace until the 7th year when it is near it's rated end of lifetime. Stock may dip a bit on the voluntary recall, but the dip doesn't last since NHTSA drops the investigation and most press praises Tesla for doing this voluntarily.
What do you guys think? I think Tesla is looking too hard at the short term cost of this and underestimating how much the stock might be affected if the NHTSA investigation rules against them.
1. NHTSA rules against Tesla and calls it a safety issue and forces a recall. This is the worst possible outcome for Tesla. Not only will they have to fix/replace faulty MCU1's but reimburse owners that paid out of pocket to replace dead MCU1's. Financially it will be a disaster but more so, the stock price will suffer. Bad press and articles questioning Tesla's build quality, longetivity and questioning building a car that relies so heavily on the center screen. Potential buyers may be scared away with the design fault and Tesla's handling of the situation. Expect a nice drop in the stock which I'm sure will eventually recover, but in the short term will hurt Tesla.
2. NHTSA rules in favor of Tesla. Obviously Tesla is angling and hoping for this outcome. They recently changed the MCU replacement warranty to 2 years vs 4 years. So they expect the replacement's to die and don't want to cover the cost. Stock will remain high and the issue will be swept away. Sure they may lose older owners but it will be a drop in the bucket for them.
3. Of course Tesla could forgo the risk of option 1, which IMO since all Elon cares about is the stock price anymore they should go with this option. Issue a voluntary recall and acknowledge that when MCU1 was designed they didn't forsee this issue since the technology was unheard of at the time in a car. Analyze MCU's remotely and determine which are closest to death and Give owners the option of upgrading to MCU2 at their own expense or receive a new MCU1 (redesigned with new emmc (this is an inexpensive part as proven by EVfixme) when your MCU is near end of the rated life. Tesla would pull the old MCU1's and send them off to receive the new emmc which is rated to last longer. This option ensures Tesla doesn't get bombarded trying to replace all the MCU1's at once and prioritizes the older owners with MCU1's near failure. If your MCU lasts 7 years then Tesla doesn't have to replace until the 7th year when it is near it's rated end of lifetime. Stock may dip a bit on the voluntary recall, but the dip doesn't last since NHTSA drops the investigation and most press praises Tesla for doing this voluntarily.
What do you guys think? I think Tesla is looking too hard at the short term cost of this and underestimating how much the stock might be affected if the NHTSA investigation rules against them.
