Myusername and numerology thread (out of market action)

[myusername]

ASP - Tesla Model 3 average sale price and budget to be closer to $50,000 based on latest data from reservation holders

that's great... but do most reservation holders represent the real general markets that Tesla will need to address in order to sustainably scale to 500k/yr plus?... no way.

Tesla will not sell 500k to 1m per year @ $50k.

 

[ggr]

that's great... but do most reservation holders represent the real general markets that Tesla will need to address in order to sustainably scale to 500k/yr plus?... no way.

Tesla will not sell 500k to 1m per year @ $50k.

Well, if people think about total cost of ownership, that's actually quite a competitive number. And if the Model 3 lives up to its reputation as a great car, people will stretch a bit. In any case, this is a testable prediction; let's come back in a couple of years.

 

[Reciprocity]

that's great... but do most reservation holders represent the real general markets that Tesla will need to address in order to sustainably scale to 500k/yr plus?... no way.

Tesla will not sell 500k to 1m per year @ $50k.

Yes actually. Model S is a great proxy for this. Model S covers a wide range of market segments which is why it can hold 30-40% market share for large luxury sedans, more then the next 4 best selling including S class, 7 series, A8 and Porsche panamera. It's because model S is dragging people up segment. 3 will do the same but it will also cover base 5 series all the way down to Camry for the base model 3. I know you aren't inclined to buy into that, but just look at how the model S performs in the US where there are still States that outlaw the sales of model S directly to customers.

The market for the model 3 is in the million per year range and only the model Y will impact that. Unless you know of another insanely sexy long range EV with a Nationwide charging infrastructure that is coming out soon?

 

[Reciprocity]

Well, if people think about total cost of ownership, that's actually quite a competitive number. And if the Model 3 lives up to its reputation as a great car, people will stretch a bit. In any case, this is a testable prediction; let's come back in a couple of years.

I did the math for myusernsme on this it's like talking to a brick wall. The equation is simple really and what people usually leave out is residual value. Higher cost cars tend to have a higher residual value. This makes the model 3 a similar value to a base Camry.

If the model 3 was ugly and out dated, no one would take the 10 minutes required to justify the purchase, but because the car elicits such excitement, people will get out the napkin and scribble out the math.

Adding solar can bring the cost down to par with a Civic.

 

[Menifeer]

I have to agree with MUN on this one.

When the large number of initial reservations were generated, the expectation was that this $35,000 car would be offset with a $7,500 tax credit, dropping its cost to $27,500. It's a very big jump from there to $50K+.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Buy a Bolt. You could have done that yesterday. Or a Volt. You could have done that 2 years ago. Or is all of this sentiment you express not worth driving in a car that has a boxy look.

As a matter of fact... I made this point 3 years ago. If the world was being pushed into more BHEVs or PHEVs in the time that Tesla has existed, the world would be well on the path to significantly reducing auto emissions. But instead Elon convinced us that we must drive a S3XY car in order to save the planet. And then he spent 15 years telling us that could be had for $35k.

Now he's convinced everyone that BEV is the ONLY option. Where, if we'd just pushed towards something that didn't require significant infrastructure changes, we wouldn't have to wait.

Imagine if STEP #1 in saving the planet was: Reduce Auto Emissions w/ The Tools We Have

and STEP #2 was: Review and Decide If Further Reductions Are Needed

Imagine a world where 50% of commutes were carbon free... That could have happened years ago with PHEVs. But no... we must wait for Tesla and rebuild ALL of our gas stations.

Guess what would have happened if we went to PHEVs? Gas stations would have started losing money. They would have started reducing in numbers. They would have TRANSITIONED into the new approach.

But instead what we have is: "ICE SUCKS... I HATE ICE... NO MORE ICE" -- so you've created a war and now you can't use any of that infrastructure.

And now Tesla is risking the ENTIRE movement. The WHOLE THING. If they fail... we'll take 10 steps back.

We are exactly at the point I expected. And here's why I've been pissed off and shorting this stock for years...

Because I'm an environmentalist. I am a Democrat. I believe in Government subsidized Science funding. I do not believe in Government funded Luxury Vehicle funding. I do not believe in funding one Guru to save us.

And Tesla and Elon have created a cult of followers that are primed for doing HARM to the whole thing. "It's too boxy... who want's a stupid Chevy... they're old and Tesla's in Silicon Valley"

Thanks. Well done guys. If Tesla nose dives... it's your fault we've taken 10 steps back.

I wish to both ''like' and 'disagree' with your comment above.
I admire your motivation, but it has since transformed into hatred that makes you unwilling to reconsider situation or listen genuinely other viewpoints, with intent to understand.
As someone that has been part of scaling (smaller) organizations, there are many things I can answer to the questions in your posts after this one, but when I've tried in the past, I've never seen a response...

 

[myusername]

Montana Skeptic is neither a long as he doesn't believe in Tesla nor a short as he is afraid of Tesla longs.

Instead he spits out misleading Tesla tweets and seeking alpha articles all day long from his mom's basement.

Kind of like some other trolls I know.

"the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs"

"We forecast TSLA will sell only 18,000 Model X cars this year, and will never sell more than 20,000 in any future year"

"Nevada in the lamentable position of continuing to bestow generous benefits while getting very little in return"

"With inventory stacking up, is a factory shutdown imminent?"

"It's time for home insurers to take the same cautions car insurers do when a $TSLA is in the garage."

"Motors made in Taiwan. Battery cells in Japan. Many parts from Daimler bin. Enough of this crap about Tesla being a true American car."

"Montana Skeptic has consistently omitted key facts, made unsupported statements and has generally lied about Tesla."

and look at what you've just done.

 

[myusername]

Montana Skeptic is neither a long as he doesn't believe in Tesla nor a short as he is afraid of Tesla longs.

Instead he spits out misleading Tesla tweets and seeking alpha articles all day long from his mom's basement.

Kind of like some other trolls I know.

"the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs"

"We forecast TSLA will sell only 18,000 Model X cars this year, and will never sell more than 20,000 in any future year"

"Nevada in the lamentable position of continuing to bestow generous benefits while getting very little in return"

"With inventory stacking up, is a factory shutdown imminent?"

"It's time for home insurers to take the same cautions car insurers do when a $TSLA is in the garage."

"Motors made in Taiwan. Battery cells in Japan. Many parts from Daimler bin. Enough of this crap about Tesla being a true American car."

let's cherry pick the worst example up there:

30seconds: "the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs"

now let's look at what MS actually said in the year 2015:

Montana Skeptic: "Supply will not be Tesla's biggest problem, though, because the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs, at least with a base price of $95,000."

MS was describing 2016 expected sales. there were 18,223 MX sold in 2016. And MS also said this in the bullets of that article:

"Elon Musk has forecast that Tesla will deliver between 36,000 and 41,000 Model X vehicles in 2016."

The point of the article was at the $95k price, 2016 expectations from Elon were not achievable.

Turns out MS was exactly right, and here's 30seconds omitting facts and making unsupported statements.

and I ask, why? you know we're talking about a car company right? why would you stoop so low?

 

[myusername]

@ggr asking you directly... yesterday before the market open I told you the stock will drop, rise to $318 then fall back and close at $316 (excluding typos)... can you tell me:

A) how is it possible for me to be correct within 8c and 27c accuracy w/ $25 of motion in the stock?
B) how is it possible that is not a single entity controlling that pattern?

 

[ggr]

@ggr asking you directly... yesterday before the market open I told you the stock will drop, rise to $318 then fall back and close at $316 (excluding typos)... can you tell me:

A) how is it possible for me to be correct within 8c and 27c accuracy w/ $25 of motion in the stock?
B) how is it possible that is not a single entity controlling that pattern?

Why are you asking me? I've made predictions before, some right, and some wrong. So what? You also said:

EDIT: one alternative is it will rebound to $218 and continue to $224/5 and open at $226 tomorrow. max pain is way up there.

Even without typos, this one was clearly wrong.

 

[Reciprocity]

let's cherry pick the worst example up there:

30seconds: "the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs"

now let's look at what MS actually said in the year 2015:

Montana Skeptic: "Supply will not be Tesla's biggest problem, though, because the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs, at least with a base price of $95,000."

MS was describing 2016 expected sales. there were 18,223 MX sold in 2016. And MS also said this in the bullets of that article:

"Elon Musk has forecast that Tesla will deliver between 36,000 and 41,000 Model X vehicles in 2016."

The point of the article was at the $95k price, 2016 expectations from Elon were not achievable.

Turns out MS was exactly right, and here's 30seconds omitting facts and making unsupported statements.

and I ask, why? you know we're talking about a car company right? why would you stoop so low?

Worst? This is the nicest stuff the guy says. I believe he tweets the foulest of lies on almost a constant basis all day, every day. I mean like 100 tweets a day. I dont know who he thinks is reading them because has no followers. I only see them because he adds $tsla to the tweets.

 

[myusername]

Why are you asking me? I've made predictions before, some right, and some wrong. So what? You also said:

Even without typos, this one was clearly wrong.

have you made a single day's prediction, watched it move up $14, tap your exact high and drop to the exact close? have you done that repeatedly with the exact same pattern, where each time it's described as a separate "anomaly"?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You're the one with the candy shell.

 

[myusername]

so, since this is the market action thread... anyone want to talk about why the clear move to $326 has been aborted in pre-market?

EDIT: oh, just looked at premarket. woke up a little late this morning.

DOUBLE EDIT: I keep saying 2xx instead of 3xx... I think my intuition is front running me.

 

[myusername]

Bit of volatility today due to CPI coming in slightly hotter than expected, but I think it's false alarm.

are you suggesting there is no general macro trend regarding interest rates right now and regardless this data has nothing to do with it?

one of the bear theories on Tesla is that right when they need funding the most, it might not be available to them. This year... due to macro trends such as this... you can quote Elon and his "cash flow" and "never needing another cash raise" lines all you want... but it's BS... and you know it. he's literally been saying this once or twice a year and raising cash once or twice a year for 7 years now.

 

[myusername]

look at it reach for $326 on the open... look at it twist around $321.87... then move back up to $323... will we see a $328 and then a $326 today?... boy I can't wait... the suspense is killing me. going to make some morning popcorn!

maybe they'll even set the dial to $336 tomorrow for you guys.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

are you suggesting there is no general macro trend regarding interest rates right now and regardless this data has nothing to do with it?

one of the bear theories on Tesla is that right when they need funding the most, it might not be available to them. This year... due to macro trends such as this... you can quote Elon and his "cash flow" and "never needing another cash raise" lines all you want... but it's BS... and you know it. he's literally been saying this once or twice a year and raising cash once or twice a year for 7 years now.

I don't see a major rout in 2018, which is when Tesla becomes profitable, as I have been predicting for a year, and as the company just guided. So you can kiss your bear theories goodbye :*

 

[myusername]

are you suggesting there is no general macro trend regarding interest rates right now and regardless this data has nothing to do with it?

one of the bear theories on Tesla is that right when they need funding the most, it might not be available to them. This year... due to macro trends such as this... you can quote Elon and his "cash flow" and "never needing another cash raise" lines all you want... but it's BS... and you know it. he's literally been saying this once or twice a year and raising cash once or twice a year for 7 years now.

@ggr why did you move this post?

 

[myusername]

I don't see a major rout in 2018, which is when Tesla becomes profitable, as I have been predicting for a year, and as the company just guided. So you can kiss your bear theories goodbye :*

Tesla will not become profitable in 2018. Just like Tesla did not deliver 100k M3s in 2017 like you said they would 1 year ago. It's not even funny anymore that people take Elon's word in Q1 and then talk as if they knew the whole time in Q4 that it'd never happen.

 

[Reciprocity]

have you made a single day's prediction, watched it move up $14, tap your exact high and drop to the exact close? have you done that repeatedly with the exact same pattern, where each time it's described as a separate "anomaly"?

You should be on a beach somewhere bathing in super models, lighting cigars with 100 dollar bills with those skills.

Why you torture yourself with us minions on a fan club forum is beyond me. I have my own theories as to why. You are clearly smarter than your argument against Tesla.