Myusername and numerology thread (out of market action)

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla will not become profitable in 2018. Just like Tesla did not deliver 100k M3s in 2017 like you said they would 1 year ago. It's not even funny anymore that people take Elon's word in Q1 and then talk as if they knew the whole time in Q4 that it'd never happen.

I've been predicting 2018 quarterly bottom-line profitability for a year now, independent of Tesla guidance. Just watch...

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla will not become profitable in 2018. Just like Tesla did not deliver 100k M3s in 2017 like you said they would 1 year ago. It's not even funny anymore that people take Elon's word in Q1 and then talk as if they knew the whole time in Q4 that it'd never happen.

I agree. Tesla will not be profitable until sometime in 2030 when they have about 40% market share for everything Auto and Clean energy, mobility and any other crap they think of. Why bother being profitable when you consume market share at 50-60% growth every year. Any profit not reinvested back into the business in a hyper aggressive way would be a sin in my opinion. I am sure Tesla will have one of those quarters where they show a profit for show and probably again every few years, but I do not expect them to showing sequential quarters of regular profits for decades.

 

[myusername]

For FY 2018, assuming Q1/2/3/4 avg weekly productions to be 1K/3K/5K/7K respectively, I get 208K M3, assuming a $45K ASP due to SR taking a larger share in 2H'18, that's annual revenue of $9.4B, add to MS/X's $10B, and maybe $2-3B from TE, we're talking ~$22B revenue, which I think is reasonably conservative.

At a historically low (for TSLA) PS of 4, it will put us at ~$520 PPS. Even if we go down to PS of 3, we're at $390 PPS. If we return to PS of ~6 as in 2017, we're looking at ~$780 PPS. Even if we take the street's conservative 2018 revenue estimate of $19B, and low PS of 3, we still get ~$337 PPS.

Of course PS and revenue are likely to be positively correlated. Higher sales will likely lead to better margin and higher PS. So it's not inconceivable that poor execution could take the PS way down. But assuming that Tesla doesn't screw up more than they usually do, they should get the M3 ramp up to 5K with a 6-9 months delay from Elon's aspirational goal of Dec 2017, so by some time in Q3, then the current PPS looks way under-valued for sure.

this is going to take a second to digest... ok... so I could rant all day about your delivery expectations... I could reference historical continued misses, etc., but what's the point.

so, let's talk about the PPS projections instead...

the PS ratio is currently nuts. totally nuts. it's completely out of line with any other auto company which trades at an average around 0.5. so, 3 is nuts, 4 is nuts and 6 is definitely nuts.

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

 

[myusername]

For FY 2018, assuming Q1/2/3/4 avg weekly productions to be 1K/3K/5K/7K respectively, I get 208K M3, assuming a $45K ASP due to SR taking a larger share in 2H'18, that's annual revenue of $9.4B, add to MS/X's $10B, and maybe $2-3B from TE, we're talking ~$22B revenue, which I think is reasonably conservative.

At a historically low (for TSLA) PS of 4, it will put us at ~$520 PPS. Even if we go down to PS of 3, we're at $390 PPS. If we return to PS of ~6 as in 2017, we're looking at ~$780 PPS. Even if we take the street's conservative 2018 revenue estimate of $19B, and low PS of 3, we still get ~$337 PPS.

Of course PS and revenue are likely to be positively correlated. Higher sales will likely lead to better margin and higher PS. So it's not inconceivable that poor execution could take the PS way down. But assuming that Tesla doesn't screw up more than they usually do, they should get the M3 ramp up to 5K with a 6-9 months delay from Elon's aspirational goal of Dec 2017, so by some time in Q3, then the current PPS looks way under-valued for sure.

this is going to take a second to digest... ok... so I could rant all day about your delivery expectations... I could reference historical continued misses, etc., but what's the point.

so, let's talk about the PPS projections instead...

the PS ratio is currently nuts. totally nuts. it's completely out of line with any other auto company which trades at an average around 0.5. so, 3 is nuts, 4 is nuts and 6 is definitely nuts.

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

this is going to take a second to digest... ok... so I could rant all day about your delivery expectations... I could reference historical continued misses, etc., but what's the point.

so, let's talk about the PPS projections instead...

the PS ratio is currently nuts. totally nuts. it's completely out of line with any other auto company which trades at an average around 0.5. so, 3 is nuts, 4 is nuts and 6 is definitely nuts.

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

2021 in revenue and 2018/19 in enterprise value due to opposite growth trajectories then

 

[BornToFly]

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

BMW does not have EV lines. They make a few i3s. In 2019 Tesla will make more than 500,000 EVs with a nice profit margin, and it has the value that comes with owning all of its own dealerships (not to mention the solar and battery storage business that is coming). BMW will have a major decline in sales and has a good chance of going bankrupt, with no real capacity to make the necessary EVs. So yes, Tesla should have a market cap higher than BMW very soon. The fact that you don't see it, is why I will make millions in TSLA, and you will not.

 

[myusername]

2021 in revenue and 2018/19 in enterprise value due to opposite growth trajectories then

2021... $115B?

how? I asked about Tesla Auto. This means an 11x increase from today in 3 years. they make $10B in MX/MS sales today (or so). They need to build factories to expand into 500k to 1m. Of which there's no known start on. To the contrary, the China stuff out today. To get to $115B by 2021 is the equivalent of 2.7 million Model 3s @$42k. Not even considering demand... this is beyond impossible. Model Y at best will just be breaking ground by then... maybe. Semi will not be delivered in 2019. Even if it was, it doesn't fill the gap.

Tesla's potential to reach the size of BMW is no earlier than 2024 which would include a mix of MS/MX at some rate respective to today, M3 @750k, MY @750k and Semi or potentially truck... and includes 2 or 3 more factories.

These things take time and money. To suggest Tesla Auto will be generating revenues of $115B by 2021 is... I don't know what it is.

 

[myusername]

BMW does not have EV lines. They make a few i3s. In 2019 Tesla will make more than 500,000 EVs with a nice profit margin, and it has the value that comes with owning all of its own dealerships (not to mention the solar and battery storage business that is coming). BMW will have a major decline in sales and has a good chance of going bankrupt, with no real capacity to make the necessary EVs. So yes, Tesla should have a market cap higher than BMW very soon. The fact that you don't see it, is why I will make millions in TSLA, and you will not.

they were supposed to make 500k THIS YEAR... not next year. they were supposed to make 1m in 2020. fine... BMW goes out of business and Tesla completely replaces them by 2024. So... TSLA is currently valued pretty close to BMW now. So, what exactly are you expecting from the SP?

EDIT: "(not to mention the solar and battery storage business that is coming)"... this is said every single year for the last 3 years.

 

[myusername]

I agree with the lower number of M3 produced for 2018. 200,000+ is pretty optimistic at this point, in my opinion. To be conservative, I would assume something more along the lines of 160,000 - 180,000. With the higher ASP, it still doesn't make a huge difference to the revenue numbers. At an ASP of $55,000, M3 2018 revenue should be $9 - $10B. With an ASP of $50,000, it's $8 - $9B.

what happened to an affordable EV to save the world?... guys. $55k ASP will not scale out to 100s of thousands of cars. Not without continued EV tax credits.

 

[myusername]

ASP has been $55k+ and they’re about to add AWD and roll out FSD-exclusive feature later this year. Don’t think ASP will decline below $55k in 2018. Maybe in early 2019 when SR is prevalent. It any even get closer to $60k until SR comes out at the end of this year. With that, I think Model 3 revenue at $10.5B in 2018.

ASP for 2018 will be $45k or lower or they will sell less than 100k M3s. that's it. we've been here before VA.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

this is going to take a second to digest... ok... so I could rant all day about your delivery expectations... I could reference historical continued misses, etc., but what's the point.

so, let's talk about the PPS projections instead...

the PS ratio is currently nuts. totally nuts. it's completely out of line with any other auto company which trades at an average around 0.5. so, 3 is nuts, 4 is nuts and 6 is definitely nuts.

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

More importantly: how did you vote?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

2021... $115B?

how? I asked about Tesla Auto. This means an 11x increase from today in 3 years. they make $10B in MX/MS sales today (or so). They need to build factories to expand into 500k to 1m. Of which there's no known start on. To the contrary, the China stuff out today. To get to $115B by 2021 is the equivalent of 2.7 million Model 3s @$42k. Not even considering demand... this is beyond impossible. Model Y at best will just be breaking ground by then... maybe. Semi will not be delivered in 2019. Even if it was, it doesn't fill the gap.

Tesla's potential to reach the size of BMW is no earlier than 2024 which would include a mix of MS/MX at some rate respective to today, M3 @750k, MY @750k and Semi or potentially truck... and includes 2 or 3 more factories.

These things take time and money. To suggest Tesla Auto will be generating revenues of $115B by 2021 is... I don't know what it is.

Roughly:
Model 3 700k @$50k
Model Y 1m @$50k
Semi 100k @$200k
S/X 100k @$100k
Total $115B by 2021

One factory in China and one more on the east coast of the United States by 2020/21.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

they were supposed to make 500k THIS YEAR... not next year. they were supposed to make 1m in 2020. fine... BMW goes out of business and Tesla completely replaces them by 2024. So... TSLA is currently valued pretty close to BMW now. So, what exactly are you expecting from the SP?

EDIT: "(not to mention the solar and battery storage business that is coming)"... this is said every single year for the last 3 years.

Tesla is NOT closely valued as BMW, which has ENTERPRISE value of more than $150B, whereas Tesla is only at $60B. More than half of the enterprise value of traditional automakers is held by bondholders.

 

[Reciprocity]

this is going to take a second to digest... ok... so I could rant all day about your delivery expectations... I could reference historical continued misses, etc., but what's the point.

so, let's talk about the PPS projections instead...

the PS ratio is currently nuts. totally nuts. it's completely out of line with any other auto company which trades at an average around 0.5. so, 3 is nuts, 4 is nuts and 6 is definitely nuts.

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

Because every EV BMW sells is going to eat into their icev profits. Do they have magic batteries or something? My guess is their $6B profits will go down $2B a year until they catch up with Tesla in EVs. This is because they will be converting high profit margin sales to negative margin sales. Please explain why this won't happen? Who is going to buy a $45,000 3-series with 200 miles of range over a model 3. Hint.. no one. Just look at the magical ipace which is supposed to bury Tesla. 250 miles range, it's smaller then the 3 and $83000 and they aren't making more then 20k per year.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla is NOT closely valued as BMW, which has ENTERPRISE value of more than $150B, whereas Tesla is only at $60B. More than half of the enterprise value of traditional automakers is held by bondholders.

Tesla owns all it's dealerships as well. What would BMW be worth if it owned 300 of it's dealerships. Also, catl's IPO values the gigafactory at $80B on it's own at 100GWh of production. Tesla's is way more vertically integrated. What if BMW owned some of their suppliers. BMW out sources many of it's SUVs completely, so they don't open those assets either.

 

[Reciprocity]

this is going to take a second to digest... ok... so I could rant all day about your delivery expectations... I could reference historical continued misses, etc., but what's the point.

so, let's talk about the PPS projections instead...

the PS ratio is currently nuts. totally nuts. it's completely out of line with any other auto company which trades at an average around 0.5. so, 3 is nuts, 4 is nuts and 6 is definitely nuts.

but who cares, right?... well, let's look at market caps instead of PPS:

$390 = $65B
$520 = $86B
$780 = $130B

BMW delivers 45k cars per week... they make $115B in revenue... they make profit... they have EV lines...

and what you're suggesting is, we should expect a $86B to $130B market cap -- a potential of 2X BMW -- because Tesla hit $22B in revs?

let me ask you this... what year do you think that Tesla Auto will become the size of BMW today?

How many times do you have to be told that people will pay a premium for growth rates. You all the same insane question and make the smart silly comparisons over and over and over. Try this.. graph the growth for those two companies then project that out 10 years.

Lastly, you claim only having .5% of the market share is bad. But with the growth Tesla has, it's an advantage to Tesla and a disadvantage to everyone else. Tesla has nothing to lose and all to gain. Traditional autos have little to nothing to gain and all to lose. If EVs do take over, they are screwed. You are correct if EVs are just a fad and Tesla will at some point crumble under it's own weight. All this competition that bears point to is an absolute joke when you drill down into them. They are smoke and mirrors and half measures. 120 models by 2020 and not one them will have battery supplies for more then 10k/year. And all at massive losses or at 30-50% premiums in price or 20-30% less size and range. It's a damn joke to think the auto industry can do anything new when they could barely put a usable nav in a car, which they still can't. People use their phones.

 

[myusername]

look at it reach for $326 on the open... look at it twist around $321.87... then move back up to $323... will we see a $328 and then a $326 today?... boy I can't wait... the suspense is killing me. going to make some morning popcorn!

maybe they'll even set the dial to $336 tomorrow for you guys.

haha.

 

[Reciprocity]

haha.

Now you're just arguing with yourself. You finally lost it for real.

 

[myusername]

Now you're just arguing with yourself. You finally lost it for real.

whatever dude... seriously... i'm literally calling the SP on a daily basis now. this is a complete joke.

 

[myusername]

Ok, what is this graph below? We're supposed to just eye over this real quick and say, "oh, look, TE is now exponential!"

This is SolarCity revenues. They stated quite clearly in the investor letter that:

"In Q4, we deployed 143 MWh of energy storage products, growing 45% from Q4 2016. Deployment of 129 MWh of energy storage in South Australia will be recognized in Q1 2018 based on commercial transfer of the site to the customer"

This means, 143 MWhs was deployed in Q4 where 14MWhs was recognized in Q4. Isn't the per KWh retail supposed to be $450 or something... meaning $6.3m in TE STORAGE was made? Then in Q1 they should recognize another $58m?... if that's what they actually charged for it which you can't tell because they just combined SolarCity with TE.

Then they say: "We also booked one-time air freight costs for the South Australian battery project"

That's not a one time cost at all. This is the delivery cost of the project. How much did that cost? We can't tell because they also merged the GM drop to 5% with: "and took write-downs related to legacy commercial & industrial projects that we had committed to prior to the acquisition of SolarCity"

So: A) you don't know how much revenue was actually generated from the SA storage project. B) you'll never know what the real GMs were on the project because they've removed the freight charges. C) it's possible that the freight charges actually met or exceeded the revenue because the 20% drop in GM on $300m is around the revenues for the project. and D)

"We also deployed 87 MW of energy generation systems in Q4, which is 20% less than Q3 2017. Solar MW deployed declined as volumes continue to be impacted by our decision to close certain sales channels earlier this year and to focus on projects with better margins."

They are shuttering SolarCity.

Then there's the graph below and the new line item you guys are telling everyone to remember is coming in 2018... the $3B in TE. And you got this because Elon said 3x of something... so you just took that $1B number and multiplied it by 3. Clearly he didn't mean that. Otherwise, what's up with that statement above about "our decision to close certain sales channels".

Meaning... the graph below and the video is garbage. The $3B you guys are flaunting for 2018 revs is garbage. TE is not worth $10B. It's worth a Solar company that they're writing off and a PowerPack company that made them $6m in Q4 with no calculable GMs.

(all quotes from the Investor Letter)