But Szakaly(NADA Chief Economist) said that potential industry growth beyond that resurgence(now til 2018) will be crimped because of product decisions that will be forced to meet regulations(CAFE 54.5 MPG) “As retailers, we always welcome competition(ROTFLMAO) and we welcome a wide variety of vehicles,” he said. “But we also want to make sure that consumers have choice and they’re able buy the car they want. It’s a major issue looking out beyond 2018.” “It’s very hard to see a successful way that either the industry can avoid significant losses, or we cannot see a major impact on sales due to regulation." “Unless gasoline prices rise significantly, or we see consumers becoming irrational and everyone buying an electric car, it’s tough to think of consumers willing to pay $3,000 to $7,000 more for the exact same car, just because someone in Washington, D.C., or California says they need to buy it.” http://www.autonews.com/article/20140805/OEM11/140809903/fuel-regs-will-stymie-industry-after-2018-nada-economist-says ========================================================================================================= I have never crunched numbers but I have always believed that the combination of lowering cost of BEVs due to the GF plus the price increases due to cost associated with meeting new CAFE fuel standards which rise to 54.5 MPG by 2025 would mean the the cost of BEV powertrain would drop below the price of a comprable ICE powertrain. The MSRP of a Model S ICE competitor should rise by ~$7k and the price of Model 3 ICE competitor should rise ~$5k.