NADA Chief Economist;New CAFE standards to raise ICE MSRP $3k-$7k between 2018-25

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

He is talking about keeping cars with the same size and performance. Not making every car for sale a Prius. Like large cars with big V8s. Look at the Lexus LS hybrid. 20 MPG combined. Tough to get that to any where near 54 MPG. And keep the same performance.

The Camry Hybrid XLE has a combined CAFE rating of 54.8331. But it only goes from 0 to 60 in 7.2 seconds instead of in the 5s. Oh noes!

Given that any half-decent hybrid already hits the target, that electrics clearly beat the target, that electrification continues to get cheaper, and that they aren't even pushing diesel hard here yet, the targets really won't be hard to hit.

The irony of the complaint is that when gas was cheap people would buy larger, more expensive vehicles, yet the NADA guy says that spending more on a cheap-to-fuel electric vehicle is irrational consumer behavior.

And there's always the $55/mpg fine.

 

[igotzzoom]

Yeah. The 54.5 mpg is based on an outdated formula that equates to a current 42 mpg. Diesels are just barely beginning to catch on in the U.S. It will not be all that hard to meet that target.

 

[Jack6591]

Each time I read the headline of this thread, I want to write something pithy, insightful, and perceptive. All I've got is GOOD.

 

[igotzzoom]

TSLA is a little pricey for me, but my budget play is some shares in Panasonic and Western Lithium.

 

[RobStark]

The Camry Hybrid XLE has a combined CAFE rating of 54.8331. But it only goes from 0 to 60 in 7.2 seconds instead of in the 5s. Oh noes!
.

The Camry Hybrid does 43 city 39 highway and 41 combined.

Gas Mileage of 2014 Toyota Camry

All the decent hybrids are less than 3% market share in the USA.

Consumers are saying it is not a good value proposition.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Consumers are saying it is not a good value proposition.

At the risk of sounding paternalistic, most people are very bad at weighing the future cost savings from lower gas costs versus the higher costs of buying an efficient vehicle. Which is one reason why the CAFE standards are a good thing, albeit not perfect.

 

[richkae]

The Camry Hybrid does 43 city 39 highway and 41 combined.

Gas Mileage of 2014 Toyota Camry

All the decent hybrids are less than 3% market share in the USA.

Consumers are saying it is not a good value proposition.

I agree that the Camry Hybrid is not a good value proposition. The Prius is vastly superior and only a tiny bit more money. You can get a Prius-C for less than a non-hybrid Camry.

If you look at the top 20 vehicle models in the U.S. they are either small cars with above average fuel economy or trucks.
Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
The fuel economy conscious may just be choosing smaller cars over hybrids - and that makes a lot of sense.

The non-truck market share of hybrids is nearly 6% ( cars vs trucks is about 50/50 ). There are very few compelling hybrid trucks ( hybrid cars outsell hybrid trucks 10 to 1 ).
Maybe if there were more good hybrid trucks, the overall market share of hybrids would increase.

Yet another is that nobody but Toyota ( and to a lesser extent Ford ) makes a decent hybrid that anybody wants - because they dominate the hybrid market share.
Maybe if other manufacturers tried to make decent hybrids the market share would increase.

 

[GSP]

Yeah. The 54.5 mpg is based on an outdated formula that equates to a current 42 mpg. Diesels are just barely beginning to catch on in the U.S. It will not be all that hard to meet that target.

Right. This is a key point that many people don't know. 54.5 mpg is the unadjusted test result. The EPA published numbers are adjusted down to be more realistic.

The 54.5 requirement also assumes a car/truck/size mix (actually vehicle "footprint"), and it will be adjusted down if more large vehicles are sold.

GSP

 

[brianman]

Why does CAFE have an accent on the E in that article? It's not a word, it's an acronym (Corporate Average Fuel Economy). Sloppy copy editing.

Probably started with autocorrect software. (Easy to blame it on the computers. They don't strike back... yet.)

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Most consumers don't want a Prius stripper.

I can't believe TEG hasn't found a picture yet.

 

[richkae]

I want to tilt at the bad press hybrids get some more. It's all colored to make it appear that people don't want hybrids or fuel-efficient cars.

This headline Hybrid cars losing market share has been featured on many news sites. It contains the phrase: "IHS/Polk's analysis of the hybrid market shows more models while sales taper off"

This analysis is meaningless without noting that hybrid = Toyota, Toyota has 68% of the hybrid market. The Prius variants alone are 47% of the hybrid market.
May 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com
If Toyota sales decline, then the entire hybrid category declines regardless of how other makes are doing. There are lots of new hybrid models from other manufacturers, and most show gains - but they are still small potatoes compared to Toyota.
The current Prius model lineup is now 5 years old. It is on the downslope of its market cycle and is due for a refresh. All cars decline after being around for 5 years.

Another important point is that this year trucks have made huge gains in sales while cars have been flat. Thus all categories of cars have lost market share.
There are almost no hybrid trucks, so hybrids will show the greatest loss.

The "analysis" is laughably weak. The headline is very misleading and inaccurate. Incompetence or bias?