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National and State Renewable Energy stats

Discussion in 'Australia' started by Vostok, Aug 23, 2020.

  1. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    #1 Vostok, Aug 23, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
    If there's interest, I can publish these stats every month.

    I siphon up the live 15 minute stats from AEMO and store them in a database, along with estimates (not mine) of small scale/rooftop solar production based on detailed SRES and weather data, since AEMO does not see the latter but it's becoming a non-trivial proportion of national power generation.

    For renewable generation I include hydro, wind, grid-scale solar, small (rooftop) solar, and grid battery storage discharge on the assumption it was charged by renewables (although the numbers are so small at the moment it makes no difference including it). Non-renewable is everything else. Percentages are calculated by dividing the renewable amount by the total generation in that state at that time.

    Renewable energy generation for July - average over the month:
    • National - 21.5%
    • TAS - 97.9%
    • SA - 37.6%
    • VIC - 22.9%
    • WA - 14.0%
    • QLD - 13.1%
    • NSW - 12.7%
    Peak renewable generation for July:
    • TAS - 100% on many occasions
    • SA - 87.3% (1 July 13:15)
    • VIC - 47.8% (19 July 12:15)
    • WA - 46.6% (12 July 13:15)
    • QLD - 42.6% (16 July 13:30)
    • NSW - 37.0% (19 July 13:30)
    Small scale/rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for July:
    • National - 3.5%
    • WA - 6.7%
    • SA - 6.0%
    • QLD - 4.6%
    • NSW - 2.6%
    • VIC - 2.3%
    • TAS - 0.8%
    Peak Rooftop solar generation for July - Impressive figures for the middle of winter:
    • WA - 35.7% (12 July 14:45)
    • SA - 33.3% (14 July 13:30)
    • QLD - 21.5% (15 July 12:30)
    • VIC - 17.3% (31 July 13:45)
    • NSW - 15.5% (19 July 12:15)
    • TAS - 8.4% (29 July 13:00)

    I'm afraid NSW is the nation's renewable laggard (a.k.a "leaner" not "lifter"), something our energy minister Matt Keen is "Keen" to change (see NSW's Renewable Energy Zones). SA's numbers a bit lower than normal due to a wind drought in July. Also solar production nationally of course is at its low ebb during winter.
     
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  2. Anubis

    Anubis Member

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    Thanks. I'd be interested in seeing this data ongoing.

    How far back do you have the data accumulated for NSW?
    I'd like to see NSW's renewable generation over a number of years to see it's [lack of] progression.
     
  3. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    I second these sentiments. Would be happy for you to do this as long as you’re willing.
     
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  4. begg

    begg Member

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    I find the information interesting. Thank you.
     
  5. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    I only have it back to 1 July this year. I had to learn how to write Python code first, then find the undocumented API to the AEMO data ;)

    If I ever got the time, I could probably write a widget to present this data on a webpage in realtime with pretty charts along with summary stats for any period of time. Maybe one day.

    The NEM data dashboard only presents generation data for the past 24 or 48 hours, or 3 months. Not a lot of options there. And no peak records or small scale solar which, as my data above shows, has reached the point where it can’t be ignored. AEMO of course can’t see the small-scale solar since a lot of it never enters the grid (or if it does via feed-in, it in effect displaces NEM generation), AEMO just see demand lower than it otherwise would be.
     
  6. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Three votes in favour, I’m easily swayed :D
     
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  7. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Renewable energy stats for August - over a quarter of the nation's power from renewables! NSW jumps from last spot to fourth among the states. Wind drought in SA over.

    Renewable energy generation for August
    - average over the month:
    • National - 25.1%
    • TAS - 97.1%
    • SA - 55.1%
    • VIC - 25.7%
    • NSW - 18.5%
    • WA - 16.2%
    • QLD - 15.1%
    Peak renewable generation for August:
    • TAS - 100% on many occasions
    • SA - 90.4% (30 August 14:15)
    • WA - 54.7% (8 August 13:45)
    • VIC - 47.8% (20 August 13:30)
    • QLD - 44.9% (24 August 11:45)
    • NSW - 42.3% (30 August 13:45)
    Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for August:
    • National - 4.7%
    • WA - 8.4%
    • SA - 7.7%
    • QLD - 6.1%
    • VIC - 3.8%
    • NSW - 3.0%
    • TAS - 1.4%
    Peak Small Scale / Rooftop solar generation for August:
    • WA - 48.2% (30 August 14:15)
    • SA - 44.0% (28 August 12:45)
    • QLD - 26.0% (31 August 12:15)
    • VIC - 24.1% (29 August 12:15)
    • NSW - 18.2% (1 August 12:15)
    • TAS - 13.3% (29 August 14:00)
     
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  8. Anubis

    Anubis Member

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    Winter is going....
     
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  9. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Here’s the renewable energy stats for September.

    I’ve added a couple more things. First, I now merge individual state data to get the 15-minute history of renewable production nationally (previously I had only monthly totals). This enables the national renewable peak to be identified as well as distribution curves (which I may post later).

    I’ve also added a “renewable mix” table so that you can see for your home state where your renewable power comes from. The state which generates the highest proportion from solar is QLD - by a huge margin. The state which generates the highest proportion from wind is SA, with VIC not far behind.

    Some notable things this month. The national percentage has leapt more than 3% in the month as solar production massively ramps up. And there was a signature period on 2 September when nationally more than half the nation’s power was generated from renewables! Woo hoo!

    Renewable energy generation for September - average for the month:
    • National - 28.4%
    • TAS - 99.5%
    • SA - 66.4%
    • VIC - 28.0%
    • NSW - 20.4%
    • WA - 18.9%
    • QLD - 16.9%
    Peak renewable generation for September - and time of occurrence:
    • National - 50.6% on 2 Sep 12:45
    • TAS - 100.0% on multiple occasions
    • SA - 91.7% on 17 Sep 14:30
    • WA - 55.6% on 13 Sep 15:30
    • VIC - 49.8% on 22 Sep 13:25
    • NSW - 48.5% on 2 Sep 12:45
    • QLD - 45.6% on 2 Sep 12:45
    Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for September - invisible to AEMO:
    • National - 5.5%
    • WA - 10.4%
    • SA - 10.3%
    • QLD - 6.3%
    • VIC - 5.1%
    • NSW - 3.4%
    • TAS - 1.6%
    Renewable mix for September - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:
    • National - Wind: 45.5%, Solar: 31.7%, Hydro: 22.8%
    • NSW - Wind: 44.4%, Solar: 36.8%, Hydro: 18.8%
    • QLD - Wind: 19.0%, Solar: 70.0%, Hydro: 10.9%
    • SA - Wind: 77.7%, Solar: 22.3%, Hydro: 0.0%
    • TAS - Wind: 20.7%, Solar: 1.6%, Hydro: 77.7%
    • VIC - Wind: 63.6%, Solar: 24.9%, Hydro: 11.4%
    • WA - Wind: 45.0%, Solar: 55.0%, Hydro: 0.0%
     
    • Informative x 5
  10. Blue heaven

    Blue heaven Fair Dinkum Tesla

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    It may be only slightly Tesla related but for me this is the most interesting thread on TMC, thanks for the great work Vostok. PS: Are you broadcasting these figures on Twitter?
     
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  11. Anubis

    Anubis Member

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    I wonder how Tasmania covers its shortfall for the gap that renewables doesn't cover? Why wouldn't hydro be able to cover it?
    I expect it comes from the mainland, which would be Victoria.
    Hopefully they are working on a battery solution so they can cut away from Victoria's dirty energy. You would think the battery wouldn't need to be that big either.

    It will be interesting watch these percentages grow over the next few year, even without support of the current federal government.

    Agree, THANKS!
     
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  12. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Thanks @Blue heaven! No, I am not broadcasting these figures on Twitter because I am not on Twitter :D
     
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  13. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    According to my data, the gap is filled by gas. There are five gas plants in Tasmania (List of power stations in Tasmania - Wikipedia). The gas generation always appears to be tightly clustered around 58 MW, 108 MW, 124 MW or 164 MW - which is around 3-10% of Tassie's total demand.

    I don't know why they can't use hydro all the time. The gas turbines appear to be operated about 40% of the time, almost always during the day, very rarely overnight. 50-150 MW for 10 hours a day is way beyond any grid battery built to date.
     
  14. jamesgo

    jamesgo Member

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    PM picks winners in $1.5b manufacturing strategy
    The focus on resources and critical minerals as one of the six priorities is likely to include the manufacture of batteries and renewable energy technology.
    PM picks winners in $1.5b manufacturing strategy
     
  15. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    As an owner of tesla powerwalls filled by solar and tesla cars filled by solar, for me the info is very relevant to my objective. Due to the powerwall app, I have for the first time noticed how much solar ramps up over september.
     
  16. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    Great data Vostok. Hopefully you have time to report it somewhat regularly. The media should use your data for a bit of State shaming to get more action going.
     
  17. bay74

    bay74 Member

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    OpenNEM: NEM

    I like this one. Shows all sorts of cool stuff.
     
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  18. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Now that is awesome... the widget I no longer have to think about writing because someone has already done it :D and the data goes back to 2005! Thanks for posting!

    The only difference is that page shows NEM data only so WA misses out, whereas my data source includes WA. So I’ll still make my monthly post (I have automated the data collection and reporting so it’s minimal effort).

    It’s very interesting looking at the data back to 2005. Peak coal was in July 2008. Renewables basically didn’t exist on any meaningful scale prior to 2009. They slowly grew to 2013/14, but then the proportion looked fairly static for the next 3-4 years. A renewable investment drought. And then they took off again from the second half of 2017, solar in particular. Coal is down 25% from the peak. Even gas looks like it is being slowly squeezed out.

    The Clean Energy Act was passed in 2011 and repealed in 2014. Pure coincidence with the growth then drought in renewable investment? I think not.

    But since 2017 the economics of renewables became so compelling even troglodytic governments couldn’t stop it. The acceleration over the last 3 years has been impressive and the rate of transition will likely only increase.
     
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  19. baillies

    baillies Member

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    Opennem post weekly to Twitter, some replies have WA and other data.
    https://twitter.com/opennem
     
  20. BenT

    BenT Member

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