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National and State Renewable Energy stats

Discussion in 'Australia' started by Vostok, Aug 23, 2020.

  1. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Awesome stuff! But don’t forget, it’s impossible to run a “modern economy” on renewable energy. Can’t be done. Don’t be fooled, renewable fanatics want us to live in caves. \s

    When I post the stats for October on Sunday, I’ll also post the diurnal charts, showing the average over the month of renewable percentages for each 15 minute period of a day, to investigate the assertion that there are periods of time when “the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow”. How true (or not) is this? All will be revealed...
     
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  2. Petros

    Petros Member

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    Bring it on @Vostok. We need data!
     
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  3. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    Just to jump on this old post... yes, there is plenty of generation and storage capacity to run fully on hydro. The answer is most likely economic. When demand is high in Victoria (e.g. summer afternoon hot days), the hydro dams in Tassie will run flat out and export to Victoria. It's very profitable for them to do so because they get a good rate on the wholesale energy market. As a result at other times they will often use some gas generation to conserve hydro storages for use at the profitable times.

    This didn't always use to happen, you may remember a small cable outage a few years ago - since then, minimum storage levels have been instigated and they are not allowed to drain their storages below certain levels at certain times of the year.

    Regarding a battery, there is no need, the hydro dams are a battery and have way more capacity than any lithium ion battery system built or proposed to date. Looking at the front page of their website, they had 6485 GWh stored as of Monday!
     
  4. cafz

    cafz Member

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    Do any of the Tassie dams actually have pumped storage ability? Last time I looked it seemed like the only pumped storage in the NEM was Tumut 3, Wivenhoe and Shoalhaven (all of which operated very infrequently in pumped storage mode).
     
  5. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    No pumped storage, but since its always running 60-80% of the region, it's not really necessary (if there is excess wind or solar, just use that and run the dams a bit slower), as opposed to places where hydro makes up a small amount of generation capacity and is only used when fast-reponse peak generation is needed.

    Having said that - Hydro Tasmania is looking at adding pumped hydro to some of their systems - Pumped hydro - to back up the Marinus Link interconnector proposal.
     
  6. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Here’s the renewable energy stats for October. The biggest change is solar’s contribution to the renewable mix - nationally 37.1% compared to 31.7% last month. Hydro up a bit and wind down a lot as proportions. VIC now over 30% and WA over 25%. QLD actually went backwards. Overall, a slight increase in renewable generation nationally compared to September.

    I’ll publish the diurnals later today.

    Renewable energy generation for October - average for the month:
    • National - 28.8%
    • TAS - 99.6%
    • SA - 63.4%
    • VIC - 31.7%
    • WA - 25.3%
    • NSW - 20.4%
    • QLD - 15.8%
    Peak renewable generation for October - and time of occurrence:
    • National - 51.0% on 03 Oct 12:45
    • TAS - 100% on many occasions
    • SA - 90.3% on 06 Oct 10:30
    • WA - 64.7% on 25 Oct 13:15
    • VIC - 59.2% on 25 Oct 10:45
    • NSW - 48.8% on 10 Oct 13:00
    • QLD - 43.2% on 30 Oct 12:45
    Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for October - invisible to AEMO:
    • National - 6.9%
    • WA - 15.5%
    • SA - 13.0%
    • QLD - 6.8%
    • VIC - 6.1%
    • NSW - 4.8%
    • TAS - 2.2%
    Renewable mix for October - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:
    • National - Wind: 38.5%, Solar: 37.1%, Hydro: 24.4%
    • NSW - Wind: 37.5%, Solar: 47.4%, Hydro: 15.1%
    • QLD - Wind: 16.5%, Solar: 77.0%, Hydro: 6.4%
    • SA - Wind: 70.8%, Solar: 29.2%, Hydro: 0.0%
    • TAS - Wind: 14.5%, Solar: 2.2%, Hydro: 83.3%
    • VIC - Wind: 53.0%, Solar: 25.8%, Hydro: 21.2%
    • WA - Wind: 38.7%, Solar: 61.3%, Hydro: 0.0%
     
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  7. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    As promised, here is the national diurnal of renewable generation as a proportion of all generation. This chart shows the average renewable generation for each 15 minute period in a day, averaged across the month, and split by source.

    diurnal.png

    How to read this chart? For example, at 3am, the average renewable generation nationally in October was 20.3%, comprising 14.8% wind and 5.5% hydro. At 12:15, renewable generation averaged 41.8%, comprising 4.4% hydro, 8.7% wind and 28.6% solar.

    What this shows that while the "sun doesn't shine" at night, it is shining somewhere in the country at all times during the day. Even better, it turns out the wind is always blowing somewhere. Wind generation varied between 8.6% and 14.9% across the 24 hours - a pretty reliable and continuous source of power.

    If there's interest, I can post the diurnals for each state. There are some really fascinating differences (to me at least :D)
     
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  8. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    The chart doesn't tell you wind is always blowing. It tells you that on average the wind is blowing. But we knew that already. What makes renewables challenging is the variability and in particular the minima.
     
  9. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    Can you post SA and NSW. I’m keen to see what green energy impacts the new interconnector will have between these two states
     
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  10. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    “But we knew that already”. Clearly some don’t, because even our Prime Minister has been known to criticise renewable energy in those terms by saying “when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing”. So if “we knew that already”, and presumably that includes the PM whose job should include understanding this stuff, then why would he perpetuate a comment about the wind not blowing if, in fact, it is always blowing somewhere? It is dishonesty or ignorance?

    To specifically answer your question, here's the cumulative distribution function of national wind generation since 1 July this year. Looks like an almost perfect Gaussian curve - as one would expect given the theory of the aggregation of a large number of independent sources each exhibiting a degree of randomness (central limit theorem).

    Wind generation is less than 20% of its peak capability only 9.1% of the time, and less than 10% of peak capability only 1.7% of the time, and has never been zero during any 15 minute period over the past 4 months. Ergo, the wind is always blowing, somewhere!

    wind.png
     
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  11. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Here you go...

    SA.png NSW.png

    Note the vertical axis on SA goes to 100% renewable while NSW only goes to 50%.

    SA has a fairly stable renewable diurnal where solar complements the wind (although it is possible that wind generators are deliberately braked during solar production as a grid stabilisation measure).

    NSW has a low background of renewable generation, swamped by solar during the day. This will need to be addressed with more wind power. Snowy 2.0 should also help a lot to soak up excess solar once the massive REZ's come on line in coming years.
     
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  12. paulp

    paulp Active Member

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    Thats interesting data. I live on the beach and note that the wind tends to be less in the middle of the day and stronger in the afternoons, which is what the chart shows. We also have a significant number of solar/wind/battery projects planned in SA. Our distribution network is archaic, but these are all being planned near the interconnector or other suitable high voltage transmission lines. I presume these projects will deliver mostly into nsw, as households are already being threatened with blackouts due to too much solar causing instability.
     
  13. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Here's the renewable energy stats for November. On the cusp of hitting 30% nationally and closing in on 10% of the nation's power coming from 'behind the meter' solar.

    Renewable energy generation for November - average for the month:
    • National - 29.5%
    • TAS - 98.8%
    • SA - 67.0%
    • VIC - 29.7%
    • WA - 27.4%
    • NSW - 23.3%
    • QLD - 18.7%
    Peak renewable generation for November - and time of occurrence:
    • National - 52.2% on 15 Nov 11:30
    • TAS - 100% on many occasions
    • SA - 89.6% on 11 Nov 13:45
    • WA - 69.2% on 30 Nov 13:15
    • VIC - 54.6% on 16 Nov 12:15
    • NSW - 48.1% on 14 Nov 14:15
    • QLD - 45.6% on 1 Nov 11:45
    Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for November - invisible to AEMO:
    • National - 9.0%
    • SA - 16.6%
    • WA - 16.2%
    • QLD - 8.5%
    • VIC - 8.0%
    • NSW - 7.2%
    • TAS - 3.7%
    Renewable mix for November - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:
    • National - Wind: 36.0%, Solar: 45.9%, Hydro: 18.1%
    • NSW - Wind: 26.8%, Solar: 52.8%, Hydro: 20.4%
    • QLD - Wind: 12.8%, Solar: 80.0%, Hydro: 7.3%
    • SA - Wind: 65.7%, Solar: 34.3%, Hydro: 0.0%
    • TAS - Wind: 23.2%, Solar: 3.8%, Hydro: 73.0%
    • VIC - Wind: 51.0%, Solar: 36.1%, Hydro: 12.9%
    • WA - Wind: 40.0%, Solar: 60.0%, Hydro: 0.0%
     
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  14. Petros

    Petros Member

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    That's terrific, and will only get better as more renewables are added.
    But, if I'm interpreting this right, it's bound to look better as we progress through summer, and maybe by winter renewables will fade back to a smaller proportion of our energy mix.

    What we need is to get improved integration of renewable energy into the NEM. I'd hate to see renewable sources of energy being shut down because that energy can't be used due to govt favouritism towards coal, gas and diesel. So we need a federal govt which is up to that task.
     
  15. Anubis

    Anubis Member

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    If that started happening, we (the people) should really take the govt to task for making us pay more for electricity.
    After all these years of the govt saying we pay too much, that sort of policy would be very visible and hopefully an election loser.

    Is it the federal government or the state governments that coordinate/manage electricity supply?
     
  16. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    Any chance of other states (Tas)? :)
     
  17. Vostok

    Vostok Active Member

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    Yes, in winter it will be smaller because solar will be less, in July the national percentage was 21.5%. It will be interesting to see YoY change for given months.

    This is a little tricky. Coal and gas have lower limits to what they can generate before the whole plant has to go offline. Given long startup times, this is risky to do regularly. Eventually other dispatchable sources will solve this problem, but not yet.

    In terms of rooftop solar, I don’t think it’s unreasonable that future inverters need to be controllable by the grid authority and be throttled when the local grid can’t take any more solar export. Electricity generation and consumption is a zero sum game - the electrons have to go somewhere. If there’s nowhere for them to go, voltage rise and grid instability results. The network tier above most local grids was never designed to “run backwards”. So too much rooftop solar generated in the wrong location can’t be sent to somewhere else in the grid far away that might need it.

    Having a home battery is incentivized in that scenario, as the household gets to keep more of their own solar, and the grid operator likes is as it reduces the amount of grid export.
     
  18. QBN_PC

    QBN_PC Member

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    The NEM is Federal.

    WA and NT aren't connected to the NEM, so they handle their affairs locally. Plus there are a lot of isolated/islanded communities in NEM states (especially in SA).
     
  19. cafz

    cafz Member

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    AEMO manages the WA Wholesale Electricity Market as well as the NEM.
     
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  20. Petros

    Petros Member

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