National and State Renewable Energy stats

[Vostok]

The stats for January… there has been a decline in renewable generation % for the first time since June last year, but still higher than any peak prior to that. Possibly due to long periods of extensive cloud cover across much of Australia in January - solar’s relative contribution was down a bit and wind up. SA has a new peak record of 98.5%.

Renewable energy generation for January - average for the month:

• National - 34.7%
• TAS - 99.5%
• SA - 75.6%
• WA - 39.4%
• VIC - 34.2%
• NSW - 29.0%
• QLD - 21.8%

Peak renewable generation for January - and time of occurrence:

• National - 58.0% on 03 Jan 12:00
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 98.5% on 20 Jan 15:45
• WA - 75.4% on 16 Jan 15:30
• VIC - 61.0% on 19 Jan 14:00
• NSW - 60.1% on 03 Jan 12:00
• QLD - 49.8% on 29 Jan 12:00

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for January - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 11.0%
• SA - 24.1%
• WA - 17.7%
• VIC - 10.2%
• QLD - 10.1%
• NSW - 8.7%
• TAS - 3.5%

Renewable mix for January - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 34.1%, Solar: 48.7%, Hydro: 17.3%
• NSW - Wind: 25.4%, Solar: 59.6%, Hydro: 14.9%
• QLD - Wind: 12.1%, Solar: 76.7%, Hydro: 11.2%
• SA - Wind: 59.0%, Solar: 41.0%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 15.2%, Solar: 3.6%, Hydro: 81.2%
• VIC - Wind: 47.4%, Solar: 40.8%, Hydro: 11.8%
• WA - Wind: 50.2%, Solar: 49.8%, Hydro: 0.0%

 

[Anubis]

SA has a new peak record of 98.5%.

I thought SA had 100%+ for 3 whole days in a row just passed Christmas?

Looking at OpenNEM for SA, renewables generation for the 26th through 28th December were over 100% contribution to demand.
Same for 19th January.

South Australia sets smashing new renewables record in final days of 2021

South Australia’s wind and solar supplied an average of just over 100% of local demand every day for a record stretch of almost one week in December.

reneweconomy.com.au

It might be time to remind me what/how you are collecting this data.

 

[Vostok]

I thought SA had 100%+ for 3 whole days in a row just passed Christmas?

Looking at OpenNEM for SA, renewables generation for the 26th through 28th December were over 100% contribution to demand.
Same for 19th January.

South Australia sets smashing new renewables record in final days of 2021

South Australia’s wind and solar supplied an average of just over 100% of local demand every day for a record stretch of almost one week in December.

reneweconomy.com.au

It might be time to remind me what/how you are collecting this data.

My stats report generation not demand. The data is sourced from ausrealtimefueltype.global-roam.com’s API.

SA often generates significantly more power than is consumed within SA, and the excess is exported to VIC. It is somewhat arbitrary to say all the renewable generation met 100% of demand in SA, and any non-renewable component was exported to VIC.

Generation within each state is not ambiguous.

 

[cafz]

It is somewhat arbitrary to say all the renewable generation met 100% of demand in SA, and any non-renewable component was exported to VIC.

Particularly because AEMO system strength constraints mean that at least 2 gas units need to be operating in SA anyway.

 

[paulp]

My stats report generation not demand. The data is sourced from ausrealtimefueltype.global-roam.com’s API.

SA often generates significantly more power than is consumed within SA, and the excess is exported to VIC. It is somewhat arbitrary to say all the renewable generation met 100% of demand in SA, and any non-renewable component was exported to VIC.

Generation within each state is not ambiguous.

But isnt rooftop solar ambiguous? Is there daily data on how much solar is exported to the grid each day?

 

[Vostok]

But isnt rooftop solar ambiguous? Is there daily data on how much solar is exported to the grid each day?

I would say “uncertain” not “ambiguous”.

Rooftop solar production is modelled based on the known installed capacities of all rooftop solar arrays (which is known, since the installers of these systems apply for the small-scale RECs in order to lower the up-front costs for the owner) and their estimated output, based on their location and local weather (average hours of sunshine, also known for every location from BoM) which is needed to apply for the REC.

The process is described at a high level here at Q2a. It notes though that there is a growing volume of Medium Solar (larger than 100kW but below ~10MW) which is invisible to the datasets compiled on the grid if those systems are not grid-managed (a growing number aren’t), but are also too big to fall under the small-scale REC scheme, so their output is not part of the rooftop solar estimate.

Rooftop solar export to grid does not need to be known explicitly, because it and self-consumption have the effect of depressing grid demand which in turn is reflected in grid generation - since generation has to be continuously optimised to exactly meet demand (it is a zero sum game) and keep frequency at exactly 50 Hz.

So it doesn’t matter why the grid demand is what it is - whether self-consumption is up or export is up - the net result is less grid generation required.

 

[cafz]

...and their estimated output, based on their location and local weather (average hours of sunshine, also known for every location from BoM)

Note that it's not based directly on the weather - APVI have monitoring at ~6000 small scale PV installations spread across the country, and that live monitored output is used to extrapolate out to the production of the known small-scale solar in the same "2 digit postcode" region.

 

[Vostok]

The stats for February. Better than January despite the massive amount of rain down the east coast recently!

Renewable energy generation for February - average for the month:

• National - 34.9%
• TAS - 99.3%
• SA - 78.1%
• VIC - 35.4%
• WA - 34.2%
• NSW - 30.1%
• QLD - 21.4%

Peak renewable generation for February - and time of occurrence:

• National - 61.5% on 06 Feb 12:00
• TAS - 100.0% on 01 Feb 01:15
• SA - 98.1% on 02 Feb 17:15
• WA - 73.8% on 07 Feb 16:45
• VIC - 63.5% on 01 Feb 14:45
• NSW - 61.1% on 06 Feb 12:00
• QLD - 52.6% on 13 Feb 10:30

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for February - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 10.7%
• SA - 24.0%
• WA - 16.3%
• VIC - 11.1%
• QLD - 9.3%
• NSW - 7.9%
• TAS - 3.8%

Renewable mix for February - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 35.6%, Solar: 48.4%, Hydro: 16.0%
• NSW - Wind: 28.3%, Solar: 56.4%, Hydro: 15.2%
• QLD - Wind: 13.9%, Solar: 75.3%, Hydro: 10.8%
• SA - Wind: 60.2%, Solar: 39.8%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 18.3%, Solar: 3.9%, Hydro: 77.9%
• VIC - Wind: 48.3%, Solar: 43.9%, Hydro: 7.9%
• WA - Wind: 48.0%, Solar: 52.0%, Hydro: 0.0%

 

[Vostok]

The stats for March. Given the amount of crappy weather on the east coast, still pretty impressive solar production, but it’s caused a bit of a hit to renewable production, down a couple of percent.

I’ve also added the stats for the “sun not shining wind not blowing” index, namely, total amount of time for which solar and wind production in each state was zero. Answer: never this month, except in QLD. So if anyone hits you with ”what happens when the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow?” you can point to the stats which prove this basically never happens. The sun is always shining or the wind is always blowing somewhere.

Renewable energy generation for March - average for the month:

• National - 32.3%
• TAS - 99.1%
• SA - 75.7%
• WA - 34.6%
• VIC - 30.4%
• NSW - 28.2%
• QLD - 19.4%

Peak renewable generation for March - and time of occurrence:

• National - 57.3% on 19 Mar 13:15
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 97.5% on 25 Mar 16:15
• WA - 71.5% on 04 Mar 16:30
• VIC - 64.1% on 31 Mar 14:30
• NSW - 60.6% on 20 Mar 13:00
• QLD - 50.8% on 20 Mar 11:45

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for March - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 9.6%
• SA - 23.8%
• WA - 14.3%
• QLD - 9.3%
• VIC - 8.6%
• NSW - 7.3%
• TAS - 2.8%

Renewable mix for March - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 35.3%, Solar: 46.5%, Hydro: 18.2%
• NSW - Wind: 30.2%, Solar: 56.0%, Hydro: 13.8%
• QLD - Wind: 11.4%, Solar: 78.6%, Hydro: 10.0%
• SA - Wind: 59.2%, Solar: 40.8%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 14.6%, Solar: 2.9%, Hydro: 82.5%
• VIC - Wind: 49.5%, Solar: 38.7%, Hydro: 11.9%
• WA - Wind: 54.3%, Solar: 45.7%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for March - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 120 minutes across 4 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[Hairyman]

The stats for March. Given the amount of crappy weather on the east coast, still pretty impressive solar production, but it’s caused a bit of a hit to renewable production, down a couple of percent.

I’ve also added the stats for the “sun not shining wind not blowing” index, namely, total amount of time for which solar and wind production in each state was zero. Answer: never this month, except in QLD. So if anyone hits you with ”what happens when the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow?” you can point to the stats which prove this basically never happens. The sun is always shining or the wind is always blowing somewhere.

Renewable energy generation for March - average for the month:

• National - 32.3%
• TAS - 99.1%
• SA - 75.7%
• WA - 34.6%
• VIC - 30.4%
• NSW - 28.2%
• QLD - 19.4%

Peak renewable generation for March - and time of occurrence:

• National - 57.3% on 19 Mar 13:15
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 97.5% on 25 Mar 16:15
• WA - 71.5% on 04 Mar 16:30
• VIC - 64.1% on 31 Mar 14:30
• NSW - 60.6% on 20 Mar 13:00
• QLD - 50.8% on 20 Mar 11:45

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for March - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 9.6%
• SA - 23.8%
• WA - 14.3%
• QLD - 9.3%
• VIC - 8.6%
• NSW - 7.3%
• TAS - 2.8%

Renewable mix for March - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 35.3%, Solar: 46.5%, Hydro: 18.2%
• NSW - Wind: 30.2%, Solar: 56.0%, Hydro: 13.8%
• QLD - Wind: 11.4%, Solar: 78.6%, Hydro: 10.0%
• SA - Wind: 59.2%, Solar: 40.8%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 14.6%, Solar: 2.9%, Hydro: 82.5%
• VIC - Wind: 49.5%, Solar: 38.7%, Hydro: 11.9%
• WA - Wind: 54.3%, Solar: 45.7%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for March - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 120 minutes across 4 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

Thanks for adding the data on solar and wind droughts. Can you share the source?

 

[Anubis]

I’ve also added the stats for the “sun not shining wind not blowing” index, namely, total amount of time for which solar and wind production in each state was zero. Answer: never this month, except in QLD. So if anyone hits you with ”what happens when the sun doesn’t shine and wind doesn’t blow?” you can point to the stats which prove this basically never happens. The sun is always shining or the wind is always blowing somewhere.

So if we take this across the NEM states (NSW, ACT, Qld, Vic, SA, Tas), there probably are NO times the wind/solar isn't available with them covering each other.
And if we could get WA and NT, and even NZ into the NEM (ANZ EM??), we could have more renewal generation outside each states peak use. Imagine the huge solar farms we could have in NT and WA deserts, which could be 1 to 2 hours west of the major markets and 1 to 2 hours east of Perth.
Ahhh, if only our politicians had vision.

Renewable energy generation for March - average for the month:

• TAS - 99.1%

That would be right, I was in Tasmania for 3 weeks in March and they couldn't generate 100% this month.
Up-to 0.9% of my charging didn't come from renewables...

 

[Vostok]

Thanks for adding the data on solar and wind droughts. Can you share the source?

You're welcome. I have a cron job running on a remote server logging the realtime NEM plus APVI data (Open NEM) every 15 minutes from https://ausrealtimefueltype.global-roam.com/api/SeriesSnapshot.

I then process that data every month with my own python script which directly generates the summary data posted here. The SNSWNB index is calculated by finding every 15 minute instance where solar + wind generation was zero in each state and in national aggregate.

There's also an OpenNEM GitHub which provides some package tools for coding geeks to visualise this data but I haven't used it. I also recently discovered this.

 

[Vostok]

So if we take this across the NEM states (NSW, ACT, Qld, Vic, SA, Tas), there probably are NO times the wind/solar isn't available with them covering each other.

Most likely. The generation by source across all states including WA are added together in a time-consistent manner every 15 minutes for the "National" total. Take WA out and I expect we'd still see zero in the SNSWNB index.

My next addition will be average renewable generation when solar is zero. Lots of people have a crack at EV owners by saying when they are charging overnight they are just burning coal. I've only tried this calculation once, more than a year ago, and renewable generation overnight in South Australia was still over 50%.

 

[Vostok]

The stats for April. A year ago the national renewable figure for April was 27.9%.

Renewable energy generation for April - average for the month:

• National - 31.5%
• TAS - 96.3%
• SA - 70.4%
• WA - 32.8%
• VIC - 28.4%
• NSW - 26.7%
• QLD - 19.9%

Peak renewable generation for April - and time of occurrence:

• National - 60.5% on 17 Apr 12:45
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 97.1% on 02 Apr 13:15
• WA - 75.0% on 23 Apr 14:00
• VIC - 66.5% on 17 Apr 13:30
• NSW - 61.7% on 03 Apr 12:45
• QLD - 51.5% on 15 Apr 13:00

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for April - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 8.6%
• SA - 17.9%
• WA - 14.3%
• QLD - 9.3%
• NSW - 7.4%
• VIC - 6.5%
• TAS - 1.8%

Renewable mix for April - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 37.8%, Solar: 42.0%, Hydro: 20.2%
• NSW - Wind: 33.1%, Solar: 53.5%, Hydro: 13.5%
• QLD - Wind: 17.1%, Solar: 73.5%, Hydro: 9.4%
• SA - Wind: 66.5%, Solar: 33.5%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 13.6%, Solar: 1.9%, Hydro: 84.5%
• VIC - Wind: 55.0%, Solar: 31.7%, Hydro: 13.3%
• WA - Wind: 52.4%, Solar: 47.6%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for April - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 120 minutes across 1 period
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[paulp]

The stats for April. A year ago the national renewable figure for April was 27.9%.

Renewable energy generation for April - average for the month:

• National - 31.5%
• TAS - 96.3%
• SA - 70.4%
• WA - 32.8%
• VIC - 28.4%
• NSW - 26.7%
• QLD - 19.9%

Peak renewable generation for April - and time of occurrence:

• National - 60.5% on 17 Apr 12:45
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 97.1% on 02 Apr 13:15
• WA - 75.0% on 23 Apr 14:00
• VIC - 66.5% on 17 Apr 13:30
• NSW - 61.7% on 03 Apr 12:45
• QLD - 51.5% on 15 Apr 13:00

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for April - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 8.6%
• SA - 17.9%
• WA - 14.3%
• QLD - 9.3%
• NSW - 7.4%
• VIC - 6.5%
• TAS - 1.8%

Renewable mix for April - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 37.8%, Solar: 42.0%, Hydro: 20.2%
• NSW - Wind: 33.1%, Solar: 53.5%, Hydro: 13.5%
• QLD - Wind: 17.1%, Solar: 73.5%, Hydro: 9.4%
• SA - Wind: 66.5%, Solar: 33.5%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 13.6%, Solar: 1.9%, Hydro: 84.5%
• VIC - Wind: 55.0%, Solar: 31.7%, Hydro: 13.3%
• WA - Wind: 52.4%, Solar: 47.6%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for April - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 120 minutes across 1 period
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

I like the SNSWNB index. It shows that other than in hydro tasmania, the other states were always able to generate renewables, although maybe not to the level desired.

 

[Vostok]

This is a good read... A recent article from reneweconomy

Low emissions, lower prices: South Australia’s remarkable shift to wind and solar

South Australia’s rapid transition to wind and solar has left other states in its wake, and it’s winning on emissions and prices too.

reneweconomy.com.au

South Australia should be a global case study, especially since it only has wind+solar as renewables and allegedly (according to certain politicians and sections of the media) these “intermittent” sources can never reliably power a large grid. Uh huh. It takes only one counter-example to disprove a theorem.

While there have been some bumps along the way in this transition in SA, they have basically broken the back of it and they are now cashing in, big-time. Good on you SA for sticking at it.

As power prices surge in QLD and NSW - the two most coal-dependent states - who’s laughing now? Not Angus Taylor, that‘s for sure.

 

[doggy1]

Our power prices went up 38.6% yesterday! Included in the letter was a statement that the DMO (Default Market Offer) would likely increase significantly on July 1. Apparently the DMO has already been calculated and was supposed to be released on May 1 but Angus Taylor apparently has delayed its announcement until the 25th of May. Conveniently 4 days after the election! Surprise, surprise that he did not want this information known in the lead up to an election......after all the hooha about how electricity prices had been reduced so much...........

 

[cafz]

Crooked as a three dollar bill.

 

[Vostok]

The stats for May and we’re still above 30%! A year ago the figure was 27.3%.

Renewable energy generation for May - average for the month:

• National - 30.9%
• TAS - 99.6%
• SA - 63.5%
• VIC - 30.2%
• NSW - 26.8%
• WA - 26.4%
• QLD - 15.4%

Peak renewable generation for May - and time of occurrence:

• National - 56.6% on 03 May 13:15
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• WA - 98.7% on 04 May 00:45
• SA - 97.9% on 21 May 12:00
• VIC - 62.8% on 03 May 13:45
• NSW - 56.1% on 17 May 13:00
• QLD - 52.6% on 29 May 12:45

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for May - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 5.4%
• SA - 12.3%
• WA - 9.9%
• QLD - 5.3%
• NSW - 4.9%
• VIC - 4.2%
• TAS - 0.9%

Renewable mix for May - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 37.9%, Solar: 29.4%, Hydro: 32.7%
• NSW - Wind: 33.0%, Solar: 37.7%, Hydro: 29.3%
• QLD - Wind: 20.8%, Solar: 64.2%, Hydro: 15.1%
• SA - Wind: 73.7%, Solar: 26.3%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 13.7%, Solar: 0.9%, Hydro: 85.4%
• VIC - Wind: 48.9%, Solar: 21.2%, Hydro: 29.9%
• WA - Wind: 58.6%, Solar: 41.4%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for May - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 720 minutes across 11 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[Vostok]

I've updated my script to report from next month the renewable percentages in each state and nationally for when solar production is zero, i.e. renewable percentages at night. We've all heard the comments about "what happens when the sun goes down?" and accusations that EVs are "coal fired" when charged overnight.

I did a dry run for this month to date... and the results are unexpected and very interesting