Natural Gas vs Heat pumps for heating

[wwhitney]

Electric only is a big mistake. All those electric only homes are going to get electricity from NG power plants

If all electricity came from natural gas plants, then for some heating loads with heat pumps, that will be a slight win in total natural gas usage; for other conditions, it will be a wash or a slight loss. For electric resistance heating, it will be a significant increase in natural gas uasge.

But not all electricity presently comes from natural gas. And in 10 or 20 or 30 years when those natural gas plants are consigned to peak load only, very little of the electricity will come from fossil fuels, so it will be a significant win.

Installing natural gas infrastructure into a building built today to lock in fossil fuel usage for the next 50 years is a poor design choice.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[Ampster]

Installing natural gas infrastructure into a building built today to lock in fossil fuel usage for the next 50 years is a poor design choice.

There are also safety issues with natural gas. I am reducing my usage by installing heat pump/AC units and a heat pump water heater.

 

[holeydonut]

If all electricity came from natural gas plants, then for some heating loads with heat pumps, that will be a slight win in total natural gas usage; for other conditions, it will be a wash or a slight loss. For electric resistance heating, it will be a significant increase in natural gas uasge.

But not all electricity presently comes from natural gas. And in 10 or 20 or 30 years when those natural gas plants are consigned to peak load only, very little of the electricity will come from fossil fuels, so it will be a significant win.

Installing natural gas infrastructure into a building built today to lock in fossil fuel usage for the next 50 years is a poor design choice.

Cheers, Wayne

I agree with you for new construction. But I think PG&E slamming existing homes with monster rate hikes on natural gas seems like a poorly thought out way to get people to reduce consumption of natural gas.

What's worse is there is no buzz about PG&E's proposed NG rate hike at all in the news. I posted about it in the Energy Policy forum but people are too busy arguing about global warming to really care about getting absolutely bamboozled trying to keep their family warm in California.

 

[getakey]

If all electricity came from natural gas plants, then for some heating loads with heat pumps, that will be a slight win in total natural gas usage; for other conditions, it will be a wash or a slight loss. For electric resistance heating, it will be a significant increase in natural gas uasge.

But not all electricity presently comes from natural gas. And in 10 or 20 or 30 years when those natural gas plants are consigned to peak load only, very little of the electricity will come from fossil fuels, so it will be a significant win.

Installing natural gas infrastructure into a building built today to lock in fossil fuel usage for the next 50 years is a poor design choice.

Cheers, Wayne

today, 35% of electricity in CAISO comes from NG and 7% from nuclear. The nuclear is going away. What is going to fill that 7% void and meet the increased electrical demand with NG heating going away?

 

[h2ofun]

today, 35% of electricity in CAISO comes from NG and 7% from nuclear. The nuclear is going away. What is going to fill that 7% void and meet the increased electrical demand with NG heating going away?

Come one, we all know we are being told solar, etc. Yep, a joke, so now we all get to buy our own electrical systems so they can say we are "green"

 

[wwhitney]

today, 35% of electricity in CAISO comes from NG and 7% from nuclear. The nuclear is going away. What is going to fill that 7% void and meet the increased electrical demand with NG heating going away?

The nuclear going away will be a big discontinuity, but the other processes are more gradual over decades. I'm not in the business of forecasting energy markets, but my WAG is: on the 1 year time frame, more use of natural gas plants. On the 10 year time frame, there will be enough additional renewables.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[aesculus]

That is still the case. There hasn't been any switchover over to month by month only since that is part of NEM2 and they can't change that.

Sounds like it's a fixed costs that is set on a day basis but calculated monthly. And can be offset monthly (yearly?) during true up for any month where you used more energy than you sent back.

See page 28. But it's still not 100% clear.

https://www.pge.com/pge_global/local/assets/data/en-us/solar-renewables/green-energy-incentives/solar-and-renewable-metering-and-billing/how-to-read-your-bill/NEM_brochure.pdf

 

[holeydonut]

today, 35% of electricity in CAISO comes from NG and 7% from nuclear. The nuclear is going away. What is going to fill that 7% void and meet the increased electrical demand with NG heating going away?

Lol did you see the article where someone asked the Director of PG&E's planning/policy this question, and his response was that planning energy use on a MW basis is a 'losing' strategy? Then he proceeded not to answer the question which leads most readers to infer the 'strategy' to offset Diablo is more NG and more imports. California won't allow more wind (on shore or off shore) so I can't really guess what other generation sources they're expecting.

Why Plans to Replace Diablo Canyon With 100 Percent Clean Energy Could Fall Short | KQED

PG&E says it will replace the nuclear plant with renewable energy, but it's not as easy as it sounds.

www.kqed.org

 

[holeydonut]

The nuclear going away will be a big discontinuity, but the other processes are more gradual over decades. I'm not in the business of forecasting energy markets, but my WAG is: on the 1 year time frame, more use of natural gas plants. On the 10 year time frame, there will be enough additional renewables.

Cheers, Wayne

For a time, I thought the solution was to do a crap ton of solar + batteries to generate a ton in the daytime then discharge the equivalent of Diablo at night. But then the studies around how much $ that would be came back and that doesn't seem feasable.

I don't know what other renewable source California is going to add to generate during sunset time in the coming decade to make your hypothesis work. We can't even get the offshore wind farm approved.

If only PG&E could harness California wildfires to generate energy... We'll be 100% on forest fire suds by 2050.

 

[getakey]

The nuclear going away will be a big discontinuity, but the other processes are more gradual over decades. I'm not in the business of forecasting energy markets, but my WAG is: on the 1 year time frame, more use of natural gas plants. On the 10 year time frame, there will be enough additional renewables.

Cheers, Wayne

you cannot add more renewables without storage. Renewables are variable and solar does not work at night nor as much in the winter. Add a bunch of electric heaters and now you have a much higher load in the winter than we do now. To meet demand, there will have to be more NG plants not less

 

[sorka]

I agree with you for new construction. But I think PG&E slamming existing homes with monster rate hikes on natural gas seems like a poorly thought out way to get people to reduce consumption of natural gas.

What's worse is there is no buzz about PG&E's proposed NG rate hike at all in the news. I posted about it in the Energy Policy forum but people are too busy arguing about global warming to really care about getting absolutely bamboozled trying to keep their family warm in California.

Fortunately the newer hybrid heat pump water heaters that run on electricity only but have UEFs of nearly 4x cost about the same per BTU as NG for all but the coldest climates. When compared to propane, which is what I'm on, it's about half the cost so I'm in the process of converting everything over to electric.

I was already electric on cooking. Water heater is next month. HVAC AC/Heat will be replaced next year with a heat pump only which fortunately won't require a service or breaker upgrade given the heat pump side of the HVAC is already lower power than AC.

I'm going to lose out on net credits this year since I made more than planned and will be leaving it on the table at true-up. But next year I should be able to use everything I generate and get rid of my propane bill.

 

[aesculus]

If only PG&E could harness California wildfires to generate energy... We'll be 100% on forest fire suds by 2050.

True but frightening.

My napkin math says the the movement to total EV's would require a 2x-3x increase in grid load. Then add in the unknown load increase from NG heating to electric heating. Without fusion I think we are doomed.

 

[aesculus]

Fortunately the newer hybrid heat pump water heaters that run on electricity only but have UEFs of nearly 4x cost about the same per BTU as NG for all but the coldest climates. When compared to propane, which is what I'm on, it's about half the cost so I'm in the process of converting everything over to electric.

Can you tell me what manufacture you used? My demand heaters are quite a few years away from needing to be replaced but the cost of NG could tip that quickly. And when I get tossed from EVA1 solar may be better spent on offsetting NG than selling it back.

 

[h2ofun]

Fortunately the newer hybrid heat pump water heaters that run on electricity only but have UEFs of nearly 4x cost about the same per BTU as NG for all but the coldest climates. When compared to propane, which is what I'm on, it's about half the cost so I'm in the process of converting everything over to electric.

I was already electric on cooking. Water heater is next month. HVAC AC/Heat will be replaced next year with a heat pump only which fortunately won't require a service or breaker upgrade given the heat pump side of the HVAC is already lower power than AC.

I'm going to lose out on net credits this year since I made more than planned and will be leaving it on the table at true-up. But next year I should be able to use everything I generate and get rid of my propane bill.

Kinda what I did. All I have left is propane water heater, stove stop, and spa heater. Everything else is electric. I now have 4 mini split heat pump compressors on 10 heads. I love having the house at 74 now.

 

[wwhitney]

you cannot add more renewables without storage.

Not sure if we've hit that point yet, but yes, in the long run we will likely need storage.

To meet demand, there will have to be more NG plants not less

Quite possibly yes in the short run.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[getakey]

this is from this WSJ article - not sure if it is behind a paywall

Opinion | Get Ready for the Blackouts

Mismanagement and the push for renewables are degrading the reliability of the U.S. electrical grid.

www.wsj.com

Three things are weakening the grid. One is the rush to add renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which depend on amenable weather to function. Second, over the past few years, numerous coal and nuclear plants that provide baseload power and help keep the grid stable have closed. Third, regional transmission organizations such as Ercot in Texas and Caiso in California are mismanaging the system. They are not providing enough incentives to ensure reliability such as providing payments to generators that have on-site fuel storage.

Renewable energy promoters don’t want to admit that wind and solar are undermining the grid. But the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a nonprofit trade group, said in a report last month that “changing resource mix” is the most urgent challenge for reliability. The group says America’s electric generation capacity “is increasingly characterized as one that is sensitive to extreme, widespread, and long duration temperatures as well as wind and solar droughts.”

 

[wwhitney]

Three things are weakening the grid.

The article is behind a paywall (you can check yourself by trying to access it form a private or incognito browser window). Certainly those three things have the potential to decrease grid reliability. But do you have any data on non-storm/wildfire related outages over time? I.e. has it started happening?

I can't comment on the article behind the paywall, but I expect it to make the error of improperly accounting for the costs of business as usual. The issue is how to decarbonize electrical power production while minimizing transition costs and difficulties.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[getakey]

well, there may be one today

Electric Systems

A Flex alert will be in effect today. Conserve power from 4-9PM to help prevent outages.

The content will change tomorrow - above is quote from today

 

[h2ofun]

well, there may be one today

Electric Systems

A Flex alert will be in effect today. Conserve power from 4-9PM to help prevent outages.

The content will change tomorrow - above is quote from today

I love with my solar and batteries, whats a flex alert?

 

[getakey]

Thats what CAISO call it

Grid status:
THE CALIFORNIA INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR HAS ACTIVATED THE FLEX ALERT PROGRAM FROM 4:00 PM ON SEPTEMBER 8, 2021 TO 9:00 PM ON SEPTEMBER 8, 2021 DUE TO A HIGH DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY. TO REDUCE STRESS ON THE SYSTEM, PG&E IS REQUESTING THAT ALL CUSTOMERS VOLUNTARILY CONSERVE ELECTRICITY.


As of:
Wednesday, September 8, 2021 at 4:40:26 AM