Natural Gas vs Heat pumps for heating

[holeydonut]

???? So having a wider variety of better options available due to new more affordable technology like VFDs and better refrigerants while also having the intellectual curiosity to explore these options.... to you... is 'regression'???

I think the alternatives have remained rather high in cost and are not pragmatic replacements to the existing tech. For example, not everyone has crawl space or attic space that can be easily modified to allow the extra electrical and pressure lines for distributed minisplits. I can't even get a whole house fan going since I don't have an attic/ventable area in the middle of my house. And the heat pumps were like 2x more than normal outdoor condensing units with a gas furnace.

On the energy front, luckily I got some solar and batteries in. But I'm thinking a representative sample of normal homeowners wouldn't be so lucky. PG&E's electricity rates went up about +20% in the last few years; and PG&E wants another +18% for the next few years.

On the NG front, I'm mostly stuck with the previous gen tech for replacement. I can't get enough solar and my house won't support all that fancy tech folks on TMC like. And PG&E is trying to to ratchet up NG rates by 50%.

So think about it in general terms of what your average homeowner is dealing with. Odds are their older architecture or their budget won't support the advancements TMC users talk about since you know TMC users are definitely not average. Your average homeowner isn't able to rationalize the investments to HVAC and energy like @h2ofun pulled off (how much has he spent now + state incentives?) Such capital expenditure is not normal expectation for a California household. But is now a necessity to stave off budget-killing increases to the most basic elements of accessing power and heat. To me, people in one of the most prosperous regions in the World being advised to eat "stoveless meals" is regression.

We aren't talking about someone's 5G reception being spotty so they're stuck on 4G. I'm talking about people not being able to heat their homes if they're on fixed income since the price of core utilities is going up 18% to 50% while their checks only go up 5% in the same timeframe. And no, these people aren't going to be able to afford those fancy heat exchangers discussed in this thread.

 

[nwdiver]

I think the alternatives have remained rather high in cost and are not pragmatic replacements to the existing tech. For example, not everyone has crawl space or attic space that can be easily modified to allow the extra electrical and pressure lines for distributed minisplits. I can't even get a whole house fan going since I don't have an attic/ventable area in the middle of my house. And the heat pumps were like 2x more than normal outdoor condensing units with a gas furnace.

On the energy front, luckily I got some solar and batteries in. But I'm thinking a representative sample of normal homeowners wouldn't be so lucky. PG&E's electricity rates went up about +20% in the last few years; and PG&E wants another +18% for the next few years.

On the NG front, I'm mostly stuck with the previous gen tech for replacement. I can't get enough solar and my house won't support all that fancy tech folks on TMC like. And PG&E is trying to to ratchet up NG rates by 50%.

So think about it in general terms of what your average homeowner is dealing with. Odds are their older architecture or their budget won't support the advancements TMC users talk about since you know TMC users are definitely not average. Your average homeowner isn't able to rationalize the investments to HVAC and energy like @h2ofun pulled off (how much has he spent now + state incentives?) Such capital expenditure is not normal expectation for a California household. But is now a necessity to stave off budget-killing increases to the most basic elements of accessing power and heat. To me, people in one of the most prosperous regions in the World being advised to eat "stoveless meals" is regression.

We aren't talking about someone's 5G reception being spotty so they're stuck on 4G. I'm talking about people not being able to heat their homes if they're on fixed income since the price of core utilities is going up 18% to 50% while their checks only go up 5% in the same timeframe. And no, these people aren't going to be able to afford those fancy heat exchangers discussed in this thread.

??? Most people have air conditioning. If you have air conditioning you can have a heat pump. ~20 years ago with R22 and solid state power electronics that cost ~$2k/kW heat pumps weren't cost effective against resistance electric or gas. That's changed. It's beyond insane that we're still installing split systems that don't also operate as a heat pump. It's beyond insane that we're still installing these cheap SEER 13 POSs.

The problem is people thinking only for today and MAYBE up to tomorrow afternoon. A SEER 18 system is a ~$500 premium over a SEER 13 but why spend $500 extra dollas when it's 'only' gonna save you $70/mo...... right? ........ it's sick.

NG has been HEAVILY subsidized by fracking for ~10 years. It's basically a waste product from oil. Hopefully the end of that screwed up welfare will inject some sanity into the market. NG needs to go up ~300% before it hits parity with sanity. Right now it's literally cheaper to run a NG generator than buy electricity.

Who's suggesting 'stove less' meals. There's a whole thread on how cheap induction stoves are

 

[holeydonut]

??? Most people have air conditioning. If you have air conditioning you can have a heat pump. ~20 years ago with R22 and solid state power electronics that cost ~$2k/kW heat pumps weren't cost effective against resistance electric or gas. That's changed. It's beyond insane that we're still installing split systems that don't also operate as a heat pump. It's beyond insane that we're still installing these cheap SEER 13 POSs.

The problem is people thinking only for today and MAYBE up to tomorrow afternoon. A SEER 18 system is a ~$500 premium over a SEER 13 but why spend $500 extra dollas when it's 'only' gonna save you $70/mo...... right? ........ it's sick.

I overhauled 2 complete HVAC systems that were previously each NG furnace + outdoor condenser + evaporator.

For the AC, I was able to get combos that had an AHRI calculated 18 SEER (unique combination of evaporator, air handler, and outdoor condenser) for about $4k cheaper each system than a comparable system using a heat pump ($8k price differential for my 2x system home). I had several bids on this... I could never get a heat pump bid to be anywhere within reason to a regular condenser bid.

And since my house is solar-constrained (I can't really add more panels without convincing a neighbor to take down a redwood), going heat pump still presents an energy problem that I won't be able to self-generate enough to power it.

I disagree with the notion that a heat pump system is a reasonable substitute to the old-style combo (but still a nice SEER) with today's prices on the hardware.

 

[nwdiver]

And since my house is solar-constrained (I can't really add more panels without convincing a neighbor to take down a redwood), going heat pump still presents an energy problem that I won't be able to self-generate enough to power it.

So your choices would have been at best 1kWh of heat per kWh from NG or ~4kWh of heat per kWh from a heat pump. Which makes more sense?

The fact the cost of NG is rising is a market correction from years of subsidization not regression. It's just a return of sanity.

 

[holeydonut]

So your choices would have been at best 1kWh of heat per kWh from NG or ~4kWh of heat per kWh from a heat pump. Which makes more sense?

The fact the cost of NG is rising is a market correction from years of subsidization not regression. It's just a return of sanity.

I dunno about you, but I'm not made of money, Going with the heat pumps as a real decision (and not a hypothetical internet musing) wasn't an option due to the costs involved. Installers kept saying they had to re-do my pressure lines and also had to do some mods to get the heat pump exchanger (I guess it's an evaporator coil on steroids?) to fit above my air handler. And the labor was just "more" because I'm not an HVAC pro and I really don't know wtf it all entails.

This is what I've been trying to explain to you... when faced with real world decisions on how to put a plan together to "go greener"... the problem is those plans require large amounts of green money.

And since most people are constrained on money, they'll be further constrained by money when their Energy and NG prices shoot through the roof and they weren't able to afford the glorious investments necessary to avoid the problem in the first place.

There used to be a program called Energy Upgrade California in 2013-2015. This public investment plan was well intended to get people access to funds if they boosted the SEER of their HVAC and also took steps to improve HERS test results and other energy-saving investments. That way someone who maybe could only afford a 13 SEER unit and double pane windows could actually get their ducts re-sealed, 18 SEER, and triple pane.

The program helped like 15,000 homes and cost like $150mm. Like half of the money was spent just running the program; the rest actually went to incentives. The program died pretty fast.

http://www.calmac.org/publications/EUC_Home_Upgrade_Process_Evaluation_Report_Draft_2016.08.24_%28CLEAN%29.pdf

http://www.calmac.org/publications/RES_5.1_HUP_FINAL_REPORT_ATR_06-30-17.pdf

Edit: from the look-back in 2017 report:

The program has consistently produced savings below expectations.

One interesting thing ... if you take the energy savings from that 2017 report and apply PG&E's mammoth 2025 rate proposal... suddenly the savings start to equalize against the costs. And assuming these investments are 10 to 20 years... maybe the program would do net good! Too bad this upgrade program is dead. Sad.


If such a program were available today to help people get efficient variable speed heat pumps instead of "old condenser only" stuff, maybe I'll change my tune about how reasonable it would be to go with heat pumps.

 

[nwdiver]

I dunno about you, but I'm not made of money, Going with the heat pumps as a real decision (and not a hypothetical internet musing) wasn't an option due to the costs involved. Installers kept saying they had to re-do my pressure lines and also had to do some mods to get the heat pump exchanger

Further reinforces the insanity of not installing the correct equipment to begin with. Why are SEER 13s that aren't heat pumps still going into new builds? It's usually ~$500 more for a SEER 18 Heat pump and the labor is the same.

You also don't need an attic or HVAC knowledge to install a mini-split. Just a wall. Most houses I've seen have walls

 

[holeydonut]

Further reinforces the insanity of not installing the correct equipment to begin with. Why are SEER 13s that aren't heat pumps still going into new builds? It's usually ~$500 more for a SEER 18 Heat pump and the labor is the same.

You also don't need an attic or HVAC knowledge to install a mini-split. Just a wall. Most houses I've seen have walls

Where is this 13 SEER thing coming from? I have never said anything advocating 13 SEER and I don't think anyone has advocated 13 SEER in this thread.

My wife nixed mini splits when she said they looked super lame (hence my question a few pages ago about how ya'll overcame the "Best Western" complaint). Admittedly, the one quote I had for Minisplits wasn't really that much more than what I went with. It just got nixed primarily for all the holes it'd take to add to all my walls; the cost to run the electrical; and it looking lame.

PS, if I knew how my home's architecture sucked so much for energy improvements, I probably wouldn't have bought it. But does anyone really get to choose their house in this Bay Area housing market? Not really.

Edit: PSS... I'm not talking about options for a new build... I'm talking about what is supposed to happen with the millions of existing homes.

 

[nwdiver]

Where is this 13 SEER thing coming from?

SEER 13 is the minimum efficiency allowed and most contractors I've seen just buy them by the truckload and toss them in their new builds. Why do they care... they're not going to pay the electric bills and most buyers aren't informed enough to know.

I guess it depends on how much you're willing to pay for a bare wall. My mini-splits are one of the best energy investments I've made. I don't think I've used >1,000kWh in a month for heating or cooling since I installed them. My rental in WA went from >$300/mo for resistance heat to ~$80/mo with heat pumps. But if you're bothered that much they also make picture frame versions.

 

[iPlug]

In June 2018 we replaced our central ducted AC and NG furnace with a Carrier Infinity Greenspeed 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source heat pump, top of the line at the time (newest unit available today has higher SEER). Original prior equipment was installed when the house was new in 2001. Doubled our SEER. $19k after tax at the time.

It would have cost more to install an equivalent SEER AC without heat pump + top of the line NG furnace and we still would have lower efficiency.

 

[holeydonut]

In June 2018 we replaced our central ducted AC and NG furnace with a Carrier Infinity Greenspeed 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source heat pump, top of the line at the time (newest unit available today has higher SEER). Original prior equipment was installed when the house was new in 2001. Doubled our SEER. $19k after tax at the time.

It would have cost more to install an equivalent SEER AC without heat pump + top of the line NG furnace and we still would have lower efficiency.

$19k? Yeah... that's about $5k more than what I ended up paying for each half of my two zone system. Which admittedly isn't 20.5 SEER, but with my 3 ton system and space constraints, I couldn't find a matching AHRI system that got over 20 SEER and had to settle for 18 SEER (I don't have an attic or crawl space to mount the air handler and coil... it all goes in a closet or some stupid alcove in the garage).

But for the highest end (edit: non-heat-pump system) I could find for the best price... here's a copy/paste from a quote I got from a Bryant dealer for just the Downstairs. Unfortunately he couldn't meet the timing requirements of my install (wife wanted it all done in 1 day). About $17k after tax. Normal folks aren't made of money to throw down $19k for a new 3 ton system. That's why I'm saying the heat pump idea sounds great on paper, but falls apart in practice for normal people who aren't flush with wealth. And NG rates doing a moonshot underneath millions of homeowners who cannot make the leap to heat pumps is terrible.

Install a Bryant Evolution 97 % 3 1/2 ton 80,000 btu modulating variable speed furnace model 987mb42080c17
Install a 3 ton variable speed Bryant Evolution Extreme 26 (up to 26 SEER) 186CNV
Install a 3 ton coil to match
Install Connex Evolution Controller with WIFI
Install new gas flex and shut off valve
Install new pvc flu
Connect to existing gas
Connect to existing electrical
Install new whip
Install new a/c pad
Install new fuses
Install new circuit breaker
Seal registers for duct test
H.E.R.S TEST ($325)
PERMIT ($500)
WARRANTY 10 YEARS PARTS AND LABOR
TOTAL COST $15,800

 

[iPlug]

$19k? Yeah... that's about $5k more than what I ended up paying for each half of my two zone system. Which admittedly isn't 20.5 SEER, but with my 3 ton system and space constraints, I couldn't find a matching AHRI system that got over 20 SEER and had to settle for 18 SEER...

Also 2-zone here. So not just higher SEER and several times higher HSPF for heating, but ours is infinitely variable speed and 4-ton, which add a significant premium to price. Very pleased as this has lived up to our expectations and more.

Variable speed is awesome. Not just the most efficient, but it's nice to maintain precise temperature control and not get blasted intermittently with hot or cold air. It's super quite and once at goal maintained temp can only hear it if right next to one of the return air registers.

 

[holeydonut]

Also 2-zone here. So not just higher SEER and several times higher HSPF for heating, but ours is infinitely variable speed and 4-ton, which add a significant premium to price. Very pleased as this has lived up to our expectations and more.

Variable speed is awesome. Not just the most efficient, but it's nice to maintain precise temperature control and not get blasted intermittently with hot or cold air. It's super quite and once at goal maintained temp can only hear it if right next to one of the return air registers.

My house is stupid... the upstairs and downstairs are separate zones so they need their own systems. They are not connected and cannot use a single piece of kit

If you were able to get 2 heat pumps for $19k then I think our situations would be comparable lol.

I agree all the highest end gear is very nice and more efficient. Not a pragmatic solution though for the average California homeowner though. And soon if NG prices shoot up people will have less $ to divert toward their HVAC systems.

 

[iPlug]

Hopefully prices will also improve substantially when chip shortage eases and more so with economies of scale as these become mass produced and common place the way AC has been.

 

[yblaser]

Interesting discussion.

I was trying to compare energy cost between an NG furnace and a heat pump here in SCE/SoCal Gas territory. Given the time averaged electricity cost (~$0.22/kWh) and gas cost (~$1.4/therm) and assuming the furnace is 85% efficient, the break even point is a heat pump with a COP of about 4.

A 13 HSPF corresponds to a COP of a little less than 4 but I assume that is averaged across the climates and season in the US. Would you expect to get a much higher average COP operating in a moderate climate like coastal southern California? By how much?

Certainly if you have excess solar or you can avoid peak electricity pricing it makes the energy costs of the heat pump more attractive.

 

[iPlug]

...Would you expect to get a much higher average COP operating in a moderate climate like coastal southern California? By how much?...

COP is highest when outside temperature is nearest to desired inside temperature, so moderate coastal climates would achieve excellent COP values. Depending on the unit you are interested in, the manufacturer may have data sheets that chart COP against this temperature delta.

 

[eml2]

COP is highest when outside temperature is nearest to desired inside temperature, so moderate coastal climates would achieve excellent COP values. Depending on the unit you are interested in, the manufacturer may have data sheets that chart COP against this temperature delta.

Every heat pump should have an AHRI certified reference number. Using this ref #, you can find all the relevant info from here:

Home Page

www.ahridirectory.org

 

[iPlug]

Every heat pump should have an AHRI certified reference number. Using this ref #, you can find all the relevant info from here:

Home Page

www.ahridirectory.org

Have looked there in the past but have not found a large trove of information such as plot COP against outside temperature delta. If you have found this, please let me know where else to dig on their site.

 

[yblaser]

COP is highest when outside temperature is nearest to desired inside temperature, so moderate coastal climates would achieve excellent COP values. Depending on the unit you are interested in, the manufacturer may have data sheets that chart COP against this temperature delta.

Thanks. I do understand the theory of heat pumps, was just looking for some real world numbers to understand the value proposition.

Not looking to change over any time soon so I don't have any model picked out, but at some point my AC/furnace is going to need replacement and would consider a heat pump if there is enough value in energy savings vs the price differential to install.

My current AC condenser is one of those slim horizontal discharge types and I don't have room for a full sized unit, so my choices are likely to be more limited too.

 

[tomuo]

No-one's mentioned a hidden cost of installing a high SEER heat pump.
By necessity they are either multistage or infinite variable.
Both of those require more wires between the air handler and the thermostat.

Any house over 25 years old is likely to be stuck with 4 wire thermostat wiring in the walls.
All the 13 SEER units are going to be single stage, and work fine on 4 wires.
There's tricks that can be done to expand this to devices that need 5 wires, but you need more than that for a high efficiency heat pump.

Ripping up walls and ceilings, and/or stapling a wire around half the outside of the house is an extra cost.

 

[tomuo]

I'm heatpump here in SoCal/SCE country, I only have one winter of heating data so far, and that's before I got my PowerWall and switched to the 4-9pm peak electric.
But I think I'm coming out ahead vs the old gas heater.
SoCal puts the 2nd tier of NG cost fairly low, so easy to hit during Winter and Summer with a single family home. So the savings during the Winter are at the marginal 2nd tier rate, and don't need to feel guilty when the inevitable "California doesn't have enough natural gas supply" warnings come out.

Last Winter, mid tier electric started at 8am (cheapest at night), so I timed everything to get cosy before then in the morning.
This year it's going to be even more smoother, cheap until 4pm, and the kids have their gaming computers in their rooms as space heaters for the evenings!

and I definitely don't miss the "cooking metal / dust" smell from the vents.