Everybody has anecdotal experience with automated lane changes using Navigate on Autopilot (NOA). We see comments such as "works for me every time", "kinda sketchy", or "merged into the fast lane without considering the guy coming at 100 mph". All of these observations are true, but don't offer a statistical way to measure quality or success rate. So I decided to take on that task.
I have a unique "commute" covering 330 miles each way, weekly, with about 263 miles on highways enabled for NOA. Most of the route is similar to I-95 in South Carolina: wide center median separating opposing traffic, 2 lanes of traffic in each direction. Given that traffic conditions will never be identical week-to-week, and each traffic interaction is potentially unique, using the same route on the same day of the week at similar times should mitigate outliers and trend towards results that are as consistent as possible.
My parameters include a 72 mph target speed (posted limit 70 mph). NOA speed based lane change setting: Mad Max (Disabled, Mild, Average, Mad Max).
Scoring system:
Perfect average score for a drive would be +1.0, while a failed lane change on each attempt would yield an average score of -1.0.
Today with 2019.8.5 3aaa23d, NOA initiated 78 lane changes, with 0.647 average points per attempt (detailed results below). I plan to track this trend over time, and hopefully identify discrete improvements with relevant future firmware updates. I probably won't consider FSD until I see Tesla starting to march the 9's on this scale.
I have a unique "commute" covering 330 miles each way, weekly, with about 263 miles on highways enabled for NOA. Most of the route is similar to I-95 in South Carolina: wide center median separating opposing traffic, 2 lanes of traffic in each direction. Given that traffic conditions will never be identical week-to-week, and each traffic interaction is potentially unique, using the same route on the same day of the week at similar times should mitigate outliers and trend towards results that are as consistent as possible.
My parameters include a 72 mph target speed (posted limit 70 mph). NOA speed based lane change setting: Mad Max (Disabled, Mild, Average, Mad Max).
Scoring system:
- Success (+1 point): Successful lane change, no negative interaction with other motorists
- Uncomfortable success (+0.5 points): Successful lane change, but negative interaction with other motorists
- AP abort (-0.5 points): Autopilot initiated but aborted lane change (did not complete)
- Driver decline (-0.75 points): NOA indicated intent to change lanes, driver declined on screeen in order to avoid: (1) negative interaction with other motorists, or (2) a poor tactical choice
- Driver abort (-1 point): Driver aborted an autopilot-initiated lane change in progress, either for safety or to avoid a negative interaction
Perfect average score for a drive would be +1.0, while a failed lane change on each attempt would yield an average score of -1.0.
Today with 2019.8.5 3aaa23d, NOA initiated 78 lane changes, with 0.647 average points per attempt (detailed results below). I plan to track this trend over time, and hopefully identify discrete improvements with relevant future firmware updates. I probably won't consider FSD until I see Tesla starting to march the 9's on this scale.