Near 40% loss in value on 2016 P90D--

[luvnMyTS]

This isn't even my own complaint. 2016 Tesla Model S 4-Door | eBay

2016 P90D fully loaded on e-bay (not my car) just had to lower his price to $98,500 due to lack of response for what was a $138,000 just 6 months ago. Only has 6,000 miles on it.

Pretty sad. I know, cars are not investments, but to lose 40% that quickly is pretty sad and the downside to being part of Tesla's past, not its future.

Clear evidence that each release of new features adversely affects the value of existing cars out there. Great for new buyers, bad for existing owners.

But as I said, with the latest changes, I can't see any additional "gotta have it" features coming in the near future, so NOW is probably the right time to buy a Model S and feel good that a MAJOR update won't out date your car in the next couple of months. Like the 2012 Model S, 10/2016 Model S is probably good to go for a couple of years before another gotta have it update.

 

[ChadS]

It is listed as a 90D rather than a P90D, so I assume (?) your estimate of the initial price is off and depreciation has not really been that much. My fully loaded 2015 P90DL listed just barely above the initial price you mentioned. Plus there are incentives to take in to account; the original owner is likely not "losing" that whole amount.

It also has the old nosecone, so is pre-refresh in addition to pre-AP2. Recent, fully loaded cars are definitely the ones that lose the most value if you try to sell them when young but after updates - people going whole-hog want the latest. Keeping the car longer than a few months is always going to be a better financial decision.

I would imagine future depreciation will be quite low. Look at Roadsters and early Model S prices, they hold up quite well over time.

 

[Electroman]

The actual price of that car to a customer is 138k. - 7.5k(fed tax credit) = 130.5k

So it has depreciated by about 130.5 - 98.5 = 32k

So that would be 32/130.5 = 24.5%. depreciation.

So not sure where you get 40% depreciation.

 

[Alex D]

That's an S 90 D, not a P 90 D.

 

[kort677]

you cannot claim the 7.5k tax credit as being part of the price because it does come out of your pocket before you can claim the credit and not everyone is eligible to claim the credit.

 

[outie]

you cannot claim the 7.5k tax credit as being part of the price because it does come out of your pocket before you can claim the credit and not everyone is eligible to claim the credit.

I don't think any used buyer cares whether the original owner can or not claim it. The buyer cannot claim it that's for sure. However, it is pretty standard to deduct the fed tax credit as part of the depreciation once you drive off the lot. If one tries to sell the car without factoring in the tax credit there are many other sellers who will, including Tesla.

 

[number12]

Interesting thread. Just got my trade in value on my 600 mile old X.. 22% deprecation not factoring credit. 15.2% factoring it in.

Reason you have to put both is because over next year or two there will not be a credit. I don't think trade in values will be much better after they expires.

Love these threads. With a company with such little data the more data points the better. Especially because at the core of every ap2, all other upgrade complaint threads is undeterminable deprecation.

 

[Ormond]

As a 90D, it seems overpriced. What did it cost $110,000?

 

[Ulmo]

Incorrect information; you are making false claims. I originally said they lied, but I didn't see any of your false claims in their ebay item. Your claims are wholey false, by enough to buy a house in many parts of the country.

• No HEPA air filter
• No nosecone upgrade
• Not a Model X
• Not 100kWh
• No AP2 HW
• Not premium (even tho you said premium); VIN# clearly says standard all wheel drive (MUCH much cheaper, enough to buy two used dirty energy ICE cars with similar comfort specs in addition to this brand new Tesla at the item's specs, when this car was new)
• No tax credits ($10,000 here)

This is 3 major upgrade generations out of date AND not a premium version AND not new. They chose a dark interior which means depressing to many people, although it will be easier to clean (once again, easier to take care of = aligned to lower price crowd).

These types of vehicles are selling at a premium right now because the factory has a 2 month wait. I seriously don't see how he paid 130K for that car; it's not a 130K car new, much less now. But if this were December, this car could start in the 60K-70K range, only because it has low miles and a large battery. Right now, 75K gets you a brand new 70D plus extras fresh from the factory with a 2 month wait. He can jack up the price because it is available now.

There's more fishy. Most people selling low mileage cars today to order AP2 & P100D have fully optioned cars. That is not a fully optioned car by any means. This makes most people think "huh -- that's weird.", not "oh that's a premium owner trading in his fun car".

 

[Racerx22b]

So at the end of the day you're saying the tax credit is really not a credit at all. Just the government fronting you a hit on depreciation?

Furthermore, if you are in a position where you are not able to obtain the tax credit you actually take a $15,000 depreciation hit the second you take ownership? (Loss of a $7500 rebate + a $7500 hit on depreciation = $15,000)

This logic is not logical.

 

[shokunin]

These numbers are all off since the OP thought This was a P90d when it's 90D and theres no way to configure a 138k 90D.

The used car value is what the open market is willing to pay. Most people who can afford this car is likely to be eligible for the tax credit. Why pay 92k for a used car versus new at 100k-7.5k credit.

Whether the original person was able or not able to take credit makes no difference on what the market will pay.

 

[Canuck]

Pretty sad. I know, cars are not investments, but to lose 40% that quickly is pretty sad and the downside to being part of Tesla's past, not its future.

You say cars are not investments and then you turn around and talk about value as if it is an investment. For many, there's value to owing these vehicles regardless of the % of depreciation after you drive it off the lot (or service center for me). You actually don't lose anything unless you sell it and it makes no sense to me buy one only to sell if a few months later. I know circumstances change but if you can't afford taking a hit should your circumstances unexpectedly change, then you shouldn't be buying any expensive vehicle in the first place.

Also, if you keep them a few years they depreciate along the lines of other vesicles in the same price range. I don't see anything "sad and the downside to being part of Tesla's past." My Model S purchase, which I bought new in 2014, was one of the best things I've bought.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

So at the end of the day you're saying the tax credit is really not a credit at all. Just the government fronting you a hit on depreciation?

Furthermore, if you are in a position where you are not able to obtain the tax credit you actually take a $15,000 depreciation hit the second you take ownership? (Loss of a $7500 rebate + a $7500 hit on depreciation = $15,000)

This logic is not logical.

I see the tax credit as something that helps the manufacture. So they could lower the apparent price to the consumer up to $7500 depending on the size of the battery. It's going to go away soon and I say good riddance because it's only applicable to a new car. It magnifies the depreciation on Electric cars, and makes them seem like they have a lousy resale value.

I'm not sure of your comparison though.

If you had a 1 day old Tesla that you registered, and that you needed to sell the depreciation would likely be approximately $7500 + the normal depreciation amount since it's no longer BRAND new. If you're able to claim the tax rebate the total depreciation is only the additional part to the $7500, and not the $7500. If you're not in a position to claim the tax credit then your lose is $7500 + the additional one day old depreciation amount. Now that $7500 might be exactly $7500. I'm sure it's actually less when factoring both of them in. But, the depreciation is way higher than a car without that tax credit.

The majority of buyers can claim the tax credit so it has a significant weight. To someone who can't claim the tax credit a 1 day old Tesla sounds like a really good deal. It allows them to benefit from the tax credit, and not get harmed by it.

 

[sdorn]

So at the end of the day you're saying the tax credit is really not a credit at all. Just the government fronting you a hit on depreciation?

Furthermore, if you are in a position where you are not able to obtain the tax credit you actually take a $15,000 depreciation hit the second you take ownership? (Loss of a $7500 rebate + a $7500 hit on depreciation = $15,000)

This logic is not logical.

The tax credit is there to help get the initial cost of buying an electric car down closer to a comparable ICE car. When you are talking about a car like the Nissan Leaf it would be virtually impossible to convince people to pay more for an EV with 85 miles of range than they would pay for a comparable ICE car with 300+ miles of range.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The tax credit is there to help get the initial cost of buying an electric car down closer to a comparable ICE car. When you are talking about a car like the Nissan Leaf it would be virtually impossible to convince people to pay more for an EV with 85 miles of range than they would pay for a comparable ICE car with 300+ miles of range.

It probably didn't help much in going from a 2015 Leaf to a P100DL

That's one hell of an upgrade.

Did you have Nvidia stock or something like that?

 

[JPUConn]

My Classic S is a flip phone now! Fortunately there are still many people using wired land lines so I'm still happily ahead of the curve.

On the original topic - Tesla heavily discounted 2016 pre refresh inventory to hit quarterly sales targets and that has to flow down to resale if there is still ample supply of discounted new.

 

[sdorn]

It probably didn't help much in going from a 2015 Leaf to a P100DL

That's one hell of an upgrade.

Did you have Nvidia stock or something like that?

The Leaf was originally an "extra" car that I leased because it was virtually free after the $7500 federal credit and $5000 state credit (no longer available in GA). I liked driving it so much I decided to get rid of my BMW 550i. The lease is up on the Leaf early next year so went all in on the P100DL.

 

[Canuck]

The tax credit is there to help get the initial cost of buying an electric car down closer to a comparable ICE car.

That's its effect but it's purpose is to combat climate change, reduce oil dependence (especially foreign) and promote sustainability.

 

[ChadS]

This is not really on topic (though I try a little in the 3rd paragraph below), but since it came up:

The US federal tax credit was ORIGINALLY intended to simply level the playing field. (At least, based on the amount it was set at. The very fact that they thought about having one at all was likely because of reasons such as the ones that Canuck notes. Though if they really wanted to address those, they would have set it higher, or removed petroleum subsidies...but I am getting ahead of myself). Around 2007 the Bush administration wanted to put an incentive on EVs but was struggling with the amount, so they asked the DOE for ideas. The DOE asked around, and somebody at Plug In America got involved. He suggested the same amount that gas cars are subsidized. (I imagine he actually suggested MORE than that, but nobody wanted to consider doing more) So in 2008 the Government Accountability Office looked at how much petroleum was subsidized, and came up with $2/gal. Over the average ICE lifespan (12 years, 12k miles/year, 24mpg at the time IIRC), they figured an average gas car gets about $12k in subsidies.*

However, that's over the lifespan. The EV tax credit was to be applied at the beginning, so they calculated the net present value of that $12k to be $7,500. And here we are, with a "level" field between gas cars and EVs. At least, until the EV tax credit expires.

There are a LOT of problems with the way the tax credit is structured; a couple have been mentioned in this thread, and in another thread I think I named about 10 other problems. Complicating resale value calculations as in this case is definitely one of the downsides. I'd rather see the petroleum subsidies removed and let the market work, but that's not how the subsidy game works...

The reason I mention this is that a lot of people complain about the federal subsidy because it "just gives money to rich Tesla buyers". In fact, if those Tesla buyers were to buy a Porsche Panamera instead, they would benefit MORE from petroleum subsidies over the life of the vehicle. The tax credit is not an incentive to buy an EV; it is a convoluted attempt to remove an existing incentive to buy a gas car, and it more than pays for itself (I have done research on incentive effectiveness rates and hope to get permission to publish some in another thread very soon, but in this case it doesn't matter - even if the effectiveness rate of the EV tax credit was 0, there would still be a net savings due to the higher subsidized costs of gas cars).

* Those were only direct subsidies (though "subsidies" here includes tax credits and the like, not only checks from the government). This amount does NOT include $85B/year for patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a number almost that large per year in health effects, pollution mitigation, trying to keep friendly governments in critical Middle East countries, etc. Sources: JOLT and conversation with a Plug In America volunteer that met with the DOE at the time.

 

[luvnMyTS]

It IS a P90D. Look at the photo of the gauge cluster. Apparently the guy didn't put "P" in the listing details, but it is in fact a Performance model.