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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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- elon is an ass
NannerAirCraft
Member
Wow is the Model X really selling that good in China? Do we know if this data from JL Warren is accurate?
This seems a little dubious to me. There very well may be (read: there definitely will be) some pull-forward from Q3 to Q2 for the tax credit drop-off. But we're talking half the drop-off dollar amount compared to Q4 to Q1, and in a seasonally much stronger quarter (Q3 vs Q1).
So 10k in China, should be around 17k in Europe, leaves 64k for North America to top Q4. With 28k already done in the US in April+May, the expected uptick in Canadian numbers and the Raven refresh hitting the US, the missing 36k is not impossible to reach. I would still think it looks like a tough goal though.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why only 17k? I was thinking about 20k, leaving a total of 60k for NA.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Yeah, 17k is too low. Q1 was 23k. NO+NL+SP is running 500 ahead of Q1. That's mostly due to NL which is double what Q1 was at this point last quarter. NO and SP are down 8-10%. Barring some weird June anomaly in the rest of Europe it looks like 20k is in the bag and 21-22k is likely.
This quarter we had 2 fewer ships hit Europe than Q1 -6 vs 8. That's about 7-9k cars fewer to deliver.
Q2 so far had 8.5k deliveries which is great for the first 2 months - that's why it appears we are ahead -, but I don't see 16k for June in the cards.
I would love to be wrong, after all we had 6 ships, which could mean 20-22k cars based on Q1 avg. volumes. But when you look at the pace of deliveries, Norway for example, is 2400 cars behind Q1 and is doing ~250 cars a day with 4.5 business days to go (.5 being the Saturday). Almost to the day a quarter ago they did 550 as a record day.
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It seems like the SR+ flood wave is going to hit Norway too late to count towards Q2, unless this week still has a surprise in store. Well, at least it will be a good start for Q3 then.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
But 4k+ of cars from those Q1 ships weren't delivered until Q2. They won't have the same logjam in Q2 - the last ship arrived on the 20th vs. 24th and the third-to-last ship arrived on the 4th vs. the 16th. Local logistics should be better the second time around, too.
True, they have 4k from Q1 that went into April, so theoretically they could have enough cars at hand to crack 23k total - assuming none of that slips to Q3. But that is a big if, given the last ship arrived last week and we now have these supposed homologation issues.
On the Norway numbers you are talking same day last quarter, I was talking what they need to crack Q1 figures. Below is the graph for Q2 (red) vs Q1 (orange) in Norway - you tell me if you think this looks like it`s catching up. Last 5 days of Q1 deliveries in Norway were 583, 339, 283, 465, 303 (plus somehow 3 on the 6th day, Sunday). That`s almost 2k cars in 5 days. This time we are ~2300 cars form Q1 totals, so they would need to do even better to catch up.
Just trying to be a bit more realistic guys. We have gone down this road many times, extrapolating too bravely only to be disappointed.
Norway:
Spain:
The Netherlands is the one outlier that may make the difference, with about ~900 up compared to same time Q1
Can you explain more about the Hong Kong change? The ON change was announced July 11, 2018 and only allowed for existing registered vehicles and inventory vehicles sold within the following 60 days to receive the rebate. That is, Tesla couldn't produce a bunch and ship them to sell before 9/11. If you're talking about the 2017 HK changes, I don't think they had any such restriction, although the phase-out period was slightly shorter.
Also, the ON program was a rebate, which meant that many people who would have otherwise been unable to afford it due to not paying enough taxes could then do so. The HK program was different in that it allowed people to pay a lower registration fee, but they still had to pony up for an expensive car. Lastly, a new federal credit was also added after the provincial one ended. IMHO, there are too many differences to say with sufficient certainty that your HK model can be extended to ON.
That said, I hope you're right. It did come off as condescending though ("Sigh"), particularly given that you didn't disclose having any personal knowledge of Canadian culture or economy or having lived there. Since I do, Canadians are far more frugal when it comes to car purchases than Americans. Honda Civic was always the best selling car there while Camry or Accord were here. So perhaps losing such a large rebate would have a lasting impact. Especially since many Ontarians think that Doug Ford is a fluke; more of a referendum against the old premier, Kathleen Wynne. So some may be waiting for the next election to see if the rebates return.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
It won't catch up - that's why I said Norway will be down 1000-1500 from Q1.
Norway was 4575 as of yesterday. Add 4.5 days @ 250/day to get 5700 for the quarter. If the rest of Europe is down as much as Norway, Q2 will be:
23k * (5700 / 7046) = 18.6k
If the Netherlands and Spain also maintain last week's pace they'll end up at 2900 and 560, respectively. Projecting all three countries across the rest of Europe gives:
23k * (5700 + 2900 + 560) / (10,434) = 20.1k
That assumes no final week ramp. I can't get 17k from the visible data -- I have to assume the unseen data will be really bad. That's possible, of course. Norway was below 200 today vs. my 250/day assumption. Germany had a very disappointing May and without a big June could be down 1500 (over 40%) from Q1. On the flip side, the UK will almost certainly be up ~500 because the first Model 3s just arrived. Countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Italy look like they'll collectively be up 500 or more.
We'll know soon enough. Meanwhile, it seems SR+ deliveries are happening in Europe so the rumors were wrong.
So what are the cash flow from operations and gaap estimates with the current model?
According to Fredtake,
* delivered over 49,000 vehicles in North America
* Have over 12,000 additional orders
* 5,000 of those 12,000 orders don’t have a scheduled delivery
Tesla orders surge for record quarter, but deliveries are the bottleneck - Electrek
So we are a little short. Maybe that's why Elon headed out to Europe today to solve " a logistics problem" (again!).
Edit: Yep.. from the horse's mouth:
In leaked email, Elon Musk says Tesla is very close to setting a record for deliveries in one quarter. But whether the company pulls it off comes down to one of the things it struggles with most
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Definitely a possibility. A weird sort of Osbourning...
The sigh was because I didn't feel like applying my model again. It has been working pretty well, but I wasn't in the mood to do the math.
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 87K world deliveries for Q2, based on other people's hard work researching numbers. I'm figuring 55K US + 22K Europe + 10K China/Other.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
49k deliveries with 22k in June means 27k April+May. Fred's June 5 article said North America April+May was 30.5k and InsideEVs says 28.3k in the US alone. My guess is the 49k is legit and they've only done ~19k in June but redefined the bonus equation to make it 22k so sales and delivery people won't throw in the towel.
Cash flow depends too much on inventories, which depend on production for which we have no useful info.
At 90k deliveries I estimate 300m GAAP loss. A few thousand deliveries one way or the other doesn't really move the needle, margins are the issue now.
Thanks for clarifying. I'd bought LEAPs and been absent for a while. Jumped back on for EoQ.
