TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by luvb2b, May 23, 2018.

  1. Stars aligned

    Stars aligned Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2019
    Messages:
    70
    Location:
    Europe
    Does anyone know why GS is amongst the top 10 institutional Tesla shareholders and nevertheless constantly bash the company? And they even increased their holdings > 35% last quarter?

    Positioning for a big surge maybe?

    mid-August we will know what they did in Q2. They always file in the last-possible day.

    upload_2019-7-8_10-48-43.png

    Edit: source Nasdaq institutional-holdings
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. ReflexFunds

    ReflexFunds Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2018
    Messages:
    555
    Location:
    -
    #2322 ReflexFunds, Jul 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2019
    We don't have much information so we have to make some assumptions. Some of the clearest information we have though is from FCA that 2019 EU credits are no more than EUR120m "well, in terms of the second question, the compliance costs for EMEA for this year, we're target -- we're expecting at around EUR 120 million".

    The more insane side of the TSLAQ community was extremely excited about the increased US registration delays in Q4/early Q1 (proof that Tesla and PWC were faking the accounts obviously), but I can't remember the exact increase from Q3 delays. Adjusting for a continuous spillover each quarter doesn't make such a huge difference though.
    Another possibility is that Tesla US production exceeded its FCA ghg credit contract in 2018 - if FCA committed to a maximum number of credit purchases per year it is possible Tesla had to start accumulating some GHG credits in Q4. These may have all been sold in Q1 with the new GM and FCA contracts.
    Hard to know for sure, but I definitely think the Q1 spike was most likely to be a combination of some US timing impact and higher US prices per credit.

    I don't mean to always disagree with you btw, I like your contribution here!
     
    • Informative x 3
    • Like x 1
  3. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2019
    Messages:
    544
    Location:
    Texas
    The EUR120m is just penalties. This article says 2019 compliance would be EUR390m instead of 120m without the Tesla deal, so the two things are obviously separate. It also says:

    Last year FCA had cash outlays, between credits and compliance payments, of about 600 million euros. That figure, which includes the U.S., will rise “moderately” this year.​

    The 200m non-ZEV + 140m deferred includes:
    1. US Q1 GHG from FCA (perhaps w/ some Q4 spillover)
    2. Q1 EU pooling from FCA
    3. EU pooling pre-payment (mostly deferred)
    4. US GHG from GM (might include 2018 credits FCA didn't buy)
    5. Other minor stuff ​

    I can't put hard numbers on each item, but Occam's Razor says the big jump in non-ZEV payments is from the new things, #2-4 on the list.

    Registration delays were not a new thing in Q4. Search "registration delay" (or $54,000 Paperweight, lol) and you find plenty of cases with Q3 cars. One example. People in this thread still didn't have plates in December for Q3 cars. A Seeking Alpha article in early January included a lot of data from Q3.

    Don't worry about disagreeing. I come here to find people who don't agree with me. That's how I learn.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
  4. ReflexFunds

    ReflexFunds Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2018
    Messages:
    555
    Location:
    -
    I think the EUR600m in 2018 was mostly US GHG credit purchases from Tesla and Honda and a $77m US fine. Fiat Chrysler paid $77 million in U.S. fuel economy penalties in 2018 - Reuters

    For 2019 in EU i think their message was that fines would have been EUR390m if they did nothing, but this 2019 EU fine has now been avoided 80% through Tesla pooling and 20% through new technology. So FCA avoided a EUR312m (80%*390) EU fine through a EUR120m payment to Tesla - or c.38%, which seems reasonable.
     
    • Informative x 2
  5. pschubert61

    pschubert61 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2017
    Messages:
    27
    Location:
    New England
    Q2 revenue I say 6.2 billion USD.
     
  6. dgatwood

    dgatwood Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2017
    Messages:
    413
    Location:
    Sunnyvale, ca
    My guess? They hold it because they think it is going to grow, and they bash it because they want to increase their holdings and prefer to buy low. :D
     
    • Like x 4
    • Love x 1
  7. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    14,492
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    Good point.

    Indeed it hasn't.

    That said, I doubt Tesla would get to S&P inclusion levels even if they did optimize for GAAP profit (which they might have).

     
    • Like x 1
  8. Spacemanspliff

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2018
    Messages:
    233
    Location:
    California
    Trying to learn here.

    How does a company post a negative net income yet post positive operating cash flow?

    Where does the roughly 450M in Depreciation come back from?

    Is the 200M stock based compensation added back because its not a true "cost" ?
     
  9. anthonyj

    anthonyj Stonks

    Joined:
    May 16, 2018
    Messages:
    1,623
    Location:
    NJ
    I think Mr. Larry Ellison needed a good amount of ZEV credits in Q2. You know, for experimental reasons.
     
    • Funny x 3
  10. AlexS

    AlexS Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2018
    Messages:
    560
    Location:
    Estonia
    can someone estimate how much Tesla saves in q2 compared to q1 thanks to 7% job cuts?
     
  11. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    5,909
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Those 2 are non-cash expenses.

    Ofcoure, that depreciation has already been paid with cash earlier as Capex. stock based compensation will be paid in stock in the future (some of it in the current quarter as well).
     
    • Like x 2
  12. Stars aligned

    Stars aligned Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2019
    Messages:
    70
    Location:
    Europe
    #2332 Stars aligned, Jul 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2019
    I expect not too much, maybe flat. Increase in stock based compensation may neutralising savings again. See snippet from last Q's 10-Q below. And I don't expect anything from R&D.

    If there is any savings at all it would be below 50mn.

    But we won't have that 43mn restructuring cost anymore.

    upload_2019-7-9_10-12-55.png
     
  13. Spacemanspliff

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2018
    Messages:
    233
    Location:
    California
    So operating cash flow basically backs out prior cap ex expenses via depreciation. How do they come to 500M? Just glancing at Q4 2018 they had 1.9B and now its 500Mish each quarter. If they are underspending on capex now (roughly 300M) how does that play out in the future?

    Does the "Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of effect of business combinations" usually refer to inventory? Q4 it was +199M and Q1 its -676M.
     
  14. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    5,909
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Depreciation is complicated. There are fixed amounts as well as variable amounts depending on # of cars produced. There was a discussion around this in this thread you can search for - which gives some details.

    It is inventory, receivables, payables etc. In the spreadsheet I posted it is rows 15 through 24.
     
    • Like x 3
    • Helpful x 1
  15. Stars aligned

    Stars aligned Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2019
    Messages:
    70
    Location:
    Europe
    I've seen this as well, my interpretation is they sold assets and leased back.
     
  16. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    5,909
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    No - the big difference was inventory increase in Q1 because they couldn't deliver a lot of cars. As I said here before, the reverse happened in Q2 - so we'll see a big drop in inventory and a big cash flow increase.
     
    • Like x 3
    • Helpful x 1
  17. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2018
    Messages:
    4,865
    Location:
    Vienna
    Have you posted the latest version of your spreadsheet, if not, would you mind posting it again? Thanks!
     
  18. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    5,909
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    Here. I've cleaned up a bit from the last time I posted.
     

    Attached Files:

    • Love x 2
  19. Stars aligned

    Stars aligned Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2019
    Messages:
    70
    Location:
    Europe
    And see also this snippet from Q2 update:
    • We adopted the new leasing standard, ASC 842 on January 1, 2019, which resulted in (i) recognition of right-of-use assets of $1.29

      billion (as “Operating lease right-of-use assets”) and lease liabilities of $1.24 billion for operating leases on the consolidated balance sheet, and (ii) de-recognition of build-to-suit lease assets (from “Property, plant & equipment”) and liabilities of $1.62 billion and $1.74 billion, respectively, with the net impact of $96.7 million recorded to accumulated deficit.
     
  20. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    5,909
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    None of these have cash flow impact. It didn't even have P&L impact - just moving around numbers in B/S.
     
    • Like x 2

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC