Near-future quarterly financial projections

[deffu]

Thanks! If I read your table right:
1. lease ratio increase in Q3 only impacts profit by 6~7million, an negligible factor.
2. one time expense(restricting etc) reduced ~80m and has a huge impact on earning.
3. You put zev income on par with Q2.
4. You modeled SGA the same as in Q2
5. other improvements come from gross margin improvement.

My questions:
1) zev can be a wild card, if they boost it to Q1 level of 200m, based on your calculation, tsla ill be nongaap positive.
2) how the 10% production increase translates to cost reduction is hard to model further complicated by M3 price mix change.
3) SGA saw 50m reduction from Q1 to Q2. Since Q3 EOQ push was not as crazy as Q2 and the distribution systems has been improved, Im wondering if we will see further decrease on SGA this quarter.
4) the early recognition of FSD in my opinion may only play a samll role on earnings. it may impact earning few millions.

Bottom line is loss will be narrowed if not earnings.

It's great data gathering and analysis. I think your ets. will come inline with actual no. But if you can list worse/nominal/best case scenarios separately, it would be super sweet!

updating model with latest deliveries, gotta bring estimates down vs my last post.

a big problem is the higher than expected lease percentages which reduce realized revenue this period. cash flow could be better due to inventory draw on model s/x.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

auto-credits incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 17,400 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,600 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,837 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.08 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.15 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2]1,375,470[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,484,642[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]126,400[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,197,605 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,210,813 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,127,885[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,927,099[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,164,753 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,231,534 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,279 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.9%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]17.9%[/TD2][TD2]17.3%[/TD2][TD2]15.6%[/TD2][TD2]23.2%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,880 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -198,497 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -218,497 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -238,497 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-238,497[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,634[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

 

[ReflexFunds]

There is no single source - I patched this method together using old SCTY slide decks plus pricing info from Tesla's website and SEC filings. I generally use $3/W for solar system sales and $0.50/Wh for Powerwall/Powerpack sales. For solar leasing I used 1300 annual kWh per installed kW and 13 cents per produced kWh. The solar lease portfolio is 6+ billion, but a lot of that was installed at 3.25-3.50/W so it's a bit less than 2 GW in total. This matches reasonably well with SCTY's cumulative deployment data, most of which went into the lease portfolio until the crash/bailout.

~2 billion watts installed * 1300 Wh/W * 13 cent/kWh = 338m annual solar lease revenue

Since the portfolio is probably a bit less than 2 GW and I like round numbers, I assume 320m annual revenue. I just made up the ~60/100/100/60 quarterly split. It seems to track results reasonably well. EIA shows distributed solar produces about twice as much in July as January, so I'm in the right ballpark. Using my rough assumptions Q2 breaks down as follows:

I largely agree with these numbers but just a note here that the solar lease assets on balance sheet are at cost and not at sale price. The undiscounted total revenues due from the solar lease portfolio is towards $10bn (and most of the solar assets will continue to generate revenue after the initial lease contract is finished, but likely at a lower price per kWh).

Also it will be interesting to see how the resolution of the dispute with Walmart is accounted. It is possible this contract was already written down in previous quarters when Walmart stopped paying, so it could be a reasonably sized moving part in Q3.

 

[Buckminster]

From main thread:

This will eventually happen as a side effect of having strong positive cash flow in every quarter. If that extra income is primarily reinvested via capex then that creates a strong GAAP income stream as well.

But while Tesla is growing there's always going to be the 'leading shock-wave of fast expansion' that artificially reduces GAAP income:

• increased opex (you expand your business before you can increase production and draw more customers),
• lower operational efficiencies, (expanding businesses are always less efficient than steady-state ones), there could be an up to 5-10% of gap (up to $300m-$600m expense, per quarter),
  
• increasing stock compensation GAAP expense (~$200m per quarter),
• elevated levels of capex spending depreciation and amortization GAAP expenses that are 2x-3x the level of a 'steady state' business with similar capital costs, (about +$300m per quarter),
  
• interest expense, (~$120m per quarter),
  
• elevated levels of growth-opex, such as R&D expenses, (+$300m per quarter).

If we add up these factors it's about $700m-1.2b per quarter currently (there's a lot of vagaries in the exact figures).

I.e. the sum of Tesla's businesses is already vastly profitable, just masked by various growth expenses. If Tesla slowed down to say Porsche's steady-state business they'd be even more profitable as Porsche.

But "slowing down" is not Tesla's mission.

 

[Thekiwi]

Bernstein has been snapshoting price trends in US. Apparently these are so called list prices without addons, without doc fee from the website.

helpful table - but the standard range is still available for $35,400 offline is it not?

 

[jschwefel]

updating model with latest deliveries, gotta bring estimates down vs my last post.

a big problem is the higher than expected lease percentages which reduce realized revenue this period. cash flow could be better due to inventory draw on model s/x.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

auto-credits incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 17,400 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,600 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,837 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.08 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.15 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2]1,375,470[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,484,642[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]126,400[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,197,605 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,210,813 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,127,885[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,927,099[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,164,753 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,231,534 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,279 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.9%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]17.9%[/TD2][TD2]17.3%[/TD2][TD2]15.6%[/TD2][TD2]23.2%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,880 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -198,497 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -218,497 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -238,497 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-238,497[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,634[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

Thank you for this. Comparing to 3Q 2018, it looks like TSLA will report about a 9% drop in revenues. I bet the market will have fun with that.

 

[Pras]

updating model with latest deliveries, gotta bring estimates down vs my last post.

a big problem is the higher than expected lease percentages which reduce realized revenue this period. cash flow could be better due to inventory draw on model s/x.

…

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x (calc'd)

avg price model 3 (set)

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

zev+nonzev credits

1 time revenue

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time cogs

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 ex credits gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

model 3 gm ex credits

auto-credits incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

maxwell/grohmann

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv est [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2][TD2] tsla [/TD2] [TD2] Sep-19 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,787[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2] [TD2]8,700[/TD2][TD2]8,935[/TD2][TD2]6,091[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2] [TD2] 17,400 [/TD2][TD2] 17,722 [/TD2][TD2] 12,091 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,600 [/TD2][TD2] 77,634 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2] [TD2] 79,837 [/TD2][TD2] 72,531 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.08 [/TD2][TD2] 0.06 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.15 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2] [TD2] 93.00 [/TD2][TD2] 97.21 [/TD2][TD2] 113.65 [/TD2][TD2] 108.65 [/TD2] [TD2] 49.00 [/TD2][TD2] 50.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.00 [/TD2][TD2] 54.30 [/TD2] [TD2]1,375,470[/TD2][TD2]1,545,857[/TD2][TD2]1,219,184[/TD2][TD2]2,604,255[/TD2] [TD2]3,484,642[/TD2][TD2]3,575,051[/TD2][TD2]2,574,076[/TD2][TD2]3,374,248[/TD2] [TD2]211,093[/TD2][TD2]208,362[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2] [TD2]126,400[/TD2][TD2]111,219[/TD2][TD2]215,981[/TD2][TD2]94,968[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-64,100[/TD2][TD2]-500,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 5,197,605 [/TD2][TD2] 5,376,389 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2] [TD2]265,000[/TD2][TD2]244,850[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2] [TD2]103,208[/TD2][TD2]123,358[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]605,079[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2] [TD2] 6,210,813 [/TD2][TD2] 6,349,676 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2] [TD2]1,127,885[/TD2][TD2]1,264,570[/TD2][TD2]1,051,304[/TD2][TD2]1,908,505[/TD2] [TD2]2,927,099[/TD2][TD2]3,038,793[/TD2][TD2]2,213,705[/TD2][TD2]2,750,012[/TD2] [TD2]109,768[/TD2][TD2]106,322[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-49,600[/TD2][TD2]-408,800[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,164,753 [/TD2][TD2] 4,360,085 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2] [TD2]235,850[/TD2][TD2]224,369[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2] [TD2]84,631[/TD2][TD2]101,154[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]735,300[/TD2][TD2]732,022[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2] [TD2] 5,231,534 [/TD2][TD2] 5,428,630 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2] [TD2] 979,279 [/TD2][TD2] 921,046 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2][TD2]13.8%[/TD2][TD2]26.7%[/TD2] [TD2]19.9%[/TD2][TD2]18.9%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2] [TD2]48.0%[/TD2][TD2]49.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2] [TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.6%[/TD2][TD2]33.9%[/TD2][TD2]31.0%[/TD2] [TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]15.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]17.9%[/TD2][TD2]17.3%[/TD2][TD2]15.6%[/TD2][TD2]23.2%[/TD2] [TD2]11.0%[/TD2][TD2]8.4%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2] [TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-14.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2] [TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]293,898[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2] [TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]557,261[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]117,345[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2] [TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]90,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2] [TD2] 996,159 [/TD2][TD2] 1,088,504 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2] [TD2] -16,880 [/TD2][TD2] -167,458 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2] [TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]10,362[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2] [TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-118,979[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-20,000[/TD2][TD2]-40,756[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -198,497 [/TD2][TD2] -369,831 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,431[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2] [TD2] -218,497 [/TD2][TD2] -389,262 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]19,072[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2] [TD2] -238,497 [/TD2][TD2] -408,334 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2] [TD2]179,000[/TD2][TD2]176,654[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2] [TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -2.31 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-238,497[/TD2][TD2]-408,334[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2] [TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]209,863[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-28,634[/TD2][TD2]-198,471[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2] [TD2] -0.16 [/TD2][TD2] -1.12 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2]

Thanks.
At some point I would assume that services revenue will start to grow much faster. The idea is that with bulk of Teslas being delivered only in last 5 quarter, they will start to hit service needs only after some time.

will be interesting to plot historical service revenue against cumulative cars delivered.

 

[EVNow]

Bernstein has been snapshoting price trends in US. Apparently these are so called list prices without addons, without doc fee from the website.

@Doggydogworld One interesting thing about the S&X price cuts.

Tesla basically retired lower priced SR (and P) and cut the higher priced LR (and P w/L) price. It is possible they did this in such a way as to not affect the ASP - but saved a bit on COGS. Along with fewer discounted pre-Raven this quarter, I feel the S/X ASP will be stable compared to last quarter.

 

[EVNow]

Thanks.
At some point I would assume that services revenue will start to grow much faster. The idea is that with bulk of Teslas being delivered only in last 5 quarter, they will start to hit service needs only after some time.

will be interesting to plot historical service revenue against cumulative cars delivered.

Service revenue has been going up - but in staggered fashion.

Q1 '18 : 263
Q2 '18 : 270
Q3 '18 : 326
Q4 '18 : 531
Q1 '19 : 493
Q2 '19 : 605

What will it be in Q3 ? Small increase to 640M - or a big increase to 750M ?

 

[EVNow]

just FYI guys Troy estimates M3 ASP for Q3 51k

About $1k more than in Q2 according to @Troy.

Every $1k ASP increase of 3 makes ~10M difference to the bottomline. Given how close the models are to non-gaap break-even, any of these can easily push non-gaap loss to profit.

Moreover, $1k more ASP could also push Q3 revenue above Q2. But It will still be some $500M below Q3 '18.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

One thing ai don’t see you guys discussing much, but didn’t Tesla monetize a lot of the SCTY install base future revenues into a finance instrument that they sold through some tax break mechanism to corporations? I have no clue how much of the initial deployment base they monetized this way, but would assume at least half. Wouldn’t that put a damper on quarterly solar revenue?

 

[ReflexFunds]

One thing ai don’t see you guys discussing much, but didn’t Tesla monetize a lot of the SCTY install base future revenues into a finance instrument that they sold through some tax break mechanism to corporations? I have no clue how much of the initial deployment base they monetized this way, but would assume at least half. Wouldn’t that put a damper on quarterly solar revenue?

The VIEs were structured primarily to monetize the tax credits which Solarcity/Tesla couldn't monetise directly - it was mostly the tax credits that were monetized, and only a much smaller amount of future customer revenue.
Future customer revenue was monetized more via non recourse debt financing - so a majority of solar revenue will be used to repay non recourse solar debt, but this doesn't impact revenue, profit or free cash flow, just net cash flow.

My understanding broadly is that c.50-75% of cash raised from VIE partners was repaid in year one with tax credit proceeds. The rest is repaid to VIE partners out of solar lease customer cash flows over 5-30 years. Solarcity used a variety of different contract structures, but for most, after the initial tax credit proceeds was paid out to VIE partners, then only 20-30% of future cash flows (from actual customer revenues rather than tax credit proceeds) were paid out to VIE partners - with the bulk of cash flow paid by VIEs to Solarcity/Tesla. Many people claim that the bulk of cash flows generated by VIEs for the first 5/10 years goes to VIE partners rather than to Solarcity - this is strictly true, but only because the tax credit proceeds are paid directly back to VIE partners - the cash flow generated by actual customer revenue mostly goes to Solarcity, even for the initial years.
This VIE structure doesn't impact revenue though - just cash flow and net profit.

 

[moneyburner1]

Dear all,

I am still struggeling with the potential Impact of deferred Revenue for Q3.

Looking at the 10-Q filing from Q2:


Revenue Recognition


Automotive Sales Revenue


Automotive Sales with and without Resale Value Guarantee


Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to deliveries of new vehicles, and specific other features and services that meet the definition of a performance obligation include access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) features and over-the-air software updates. Deferred revenue related to the access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot and FSD features and over-the-air software updates on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantee amounted to $1.19 billion and $882.8 million as of June 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively. Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2018 was $113.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2019 . From the deferred revenue balance as of January 1, 2018, revenue recognized during the six months ended June 30, 2018 was $44.5 million. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees, we expect to recognize $567.0 Million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the various performance periods of the obligations, which is up to the eightyear life of the Vehicle.


As Tesla stated they will recognize 567 Million over the next 4 quarters - and I take the $113,5 Million as "base line for superchargeres and Internet connectivity" for 2 quarters - that would give $227 Million for 1 year.

Would not the rest of $340 Million ($567 -$227) recognized for V10 with Summon for Q3?

That would bring Tesla even into US-Gaap Profit...

 

[Doggydogworld]

Dear all,

I am still struggeling with the potential Impact of deferred Revenue for Q3.

Looking at the 10-Q filing from Q2:


Revenue Recognition


Automotive Sales Revenue


Automotive Sales with and without Resale Value Guarantee


Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to deliveries of new vehicles, and specific other features and services that meet the definition of a performance obligation include access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (“FSD”) features and over-the-air software updates. Deferred revenue related to the access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Autopilot and FSD features and over-the-air software updates on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantee amounted to $1.19 billion and $882.8 million as of June 30, 2019 and December 31, 2018, respectively. Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2018 was $113.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2019 . From the deferred revenue balance as of January 1, 2018, revenue recognized during the six months ended June 30, 2018 was $44.5 million. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees, we expect to recognize $567.0 Million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the various performance periods of the obligations, which is up to the eightyear life of the Vehicle.


As Tesla stated they will recognize 567 Million over the next 4 quarters - and I take the $113,5 Million as "base line for superchargeres and Internet connectivity" for 2 quarters - that would give $227 Million for 1 year.

Would not the rest of $340 Million ($567 -$227) recognized for V10 with Summon for Q3?

That would bring Tesla even into US-Gaap Profit...

I think some of the 113.5m was Navigate on Autopilot. The Supercharger/connectivity stuff scales with fleet size, I seem to recall estimating it at ~300/car/year but would need to revisit that math.

Some of the 567 will be city NOA and other features they expect to release in the next 12 months. The V10 rollout kind of straddled the Q3/Q4 boundary, giving them some freedom to pick which quarter gets the revenue.

 

[EVNow]

Would not the rest of $340 Million ($567 -$227) recognized for V10 with Summon for Q3?

Summon is a small part of FSD. Tesla also needs to upgrade to HW3 all the older than Q2 cars.

Tracking FSD Feature Complete

Enh summon has also not been delivered to EU.

I'd say only about 10% of that $340M can be recognized in Q3 for V10.

 

[Josuke]

I believe auto margins can surprise to the upside. The margins for S/X were abysmal in Q1/Q2 due to reduced production, retooling and heavy discounts on pre-raven inventory. The drop in S/X margins probably played a larger role in the overall auto margins than the inefficient model 3 international deliveries. Q3 was the first quarter were majority of the sales were Raven inventory with the more efficient production line (single shift but 2/3 of previous max production, cheaper model 3 drive trains, single battery pack, 90% reduction in warehouse costs, single GA line instead of two). Check out the ER letters for the evidence.

Q1: Model 3 margins ~20% but auto margin ex credits was 13.3%
Q2: Model 3 margins improved and auto margin ex credits improved to 15.9% but Model S/X margins declined QoQ

An increase of margins from my Q2 estimate of 5% back up to 20% with an ASP of $94k for 14790 S/X non-lease sales could mean an increased profit of $208mil.

 

[EVNow]

An increase of margins from my Q2 estimate of 5% back up to 20% with an ASP of $94k for 14790 S/X non-lease sales could mean an increased profit of $208mil.

Troy says the ASP on 3 has increased but X has decreased.

ASP for Q3 2019: Model S: There were too few entries Model X: $4,519 lower than Q2 Model 3: $1,027 higher than Q2​

It's mostly US. You can see the country in column B here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p5vN-xTC5yM0siwdP9XCldds2b_CGV36yuJvs1PHp48/edit#gid=1013703808… Also, you can see the previous quarter in cell S31 here docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p5vN-xTC5yM0siwdP9XCldds2b_CGV36yuJvs1PHp48/edit#gid=1225085873… If you click on the price, a screenshot will open.
​

Overall I don't think there will be a big jump in margin in either direction for any of the models.

 

[EVNow]

From @Troy 's spreadsheet we get -

For S :
Quarter Average Sale Price
Q3 2018 $99,287
Q4 2018 $99,934
Q1 2019 $103,404
Q2 2019 $104,634
Q3 2019 $93,304

For X :
Quarter Average Sale Price
Q3 2018 $107,520
Q4 2018 $108,414
Q1 2019 $100,908
Q2 2019 $103,916
Q3 2019 $99,397

Calculated S&X ASP (including reg. credits) from ERs :

Q3 2018 $104,800
Q4 2018 $106,000
Q1 2019 $103,000
Q2 2019 $95,175

The calculated ASP matches with the avg from surveys in Troy's spread sheet till Q1. In Q2 we see a big decrease in ASP in the ER that is not in the survey - I think because the survey has few, if any, inventory sales of discounted pre-Raven cars. But in Q3 we see the big decrease in the survey because of price cuts. Along with pre-Raven discounted sales in Q3, I don't know whether we will see another big decrease in ASP ...

According to my model -
S&X ASP : $95,000
Revenue : $6.32B
non-Gaap : $26M loss

S&X ASP : $90,000
Revenue : $6.24B
non-Gaap : $40M loss

So, not a big difference in P&L (assuming same margin).​

 

[Doggydogworld]

From [SIZE=14px][COLOR=rgb(2, 2, 2)]So, not a big difference in P&L ([B]assuming same margin[/B]).[/COLOR][/SIZE]

That's quite the assumption! Price cuts have zero affect on COGS, obviously, though we can hope Tesla found enough Raven cost savings to offset at least a portion of the cuts.

I find it odd that Troy's ASP dropped 11k for Model S from Q2 to Q3, but only 4k for Model X. The price cuts were the same, correct? Is he running into serious sample rate issues or something?

I still say 93k ASP for S/X in Q3 and I'll guess 75k COGS.[/user]

 

[EVNow]

That's quite the assumption! Price cuts have zero affect on COGS, obviously, though we can hope Tesla found enough Raven cost savings to offset at least a portion of the cuts.

The reason I didn't change margin is my model uses combined margin for all models. I'll play around and see how overall margin may get impacted.

I find it odd that Troy's ASP dropped 11k for Model S from Q2 to Q3, but only 4k for Model X. The price cuts were the same, correct? Is he running into serious sample rate issues or something?

I still say 93k ASP for S/X in Q3 and I'll guess 75k COGS.[/user]

# of samples for S is quite low - compared to X (180 vs 1,000). We don't know how skewed that has made the sample.

 

[EVNow]

That's quite the assumption! Price cuts have zero affect on COGS, obviously, though we can hope Tesla found enough Raven cost savings to offset at least a portion of the cuts.

Assumption :
Q2 :
17.7% (non-lease) margin
S&X : ASP : 95k, COGS : 78k
3 : ASP 50k, COGS : 41k

Q 3:

S&X : ASP : 90k, COGS : 76k
3 : ASP 49k, COGS : 40k

(non-lease) margin : 17.5% <- calculated

Basically 5k reduction in S&X ASP will wipe out 0.5% improvement in margin I was assuming.

If instead of assumed 1k drop in 3 ASP, it goes up by $1k to 51k (like the survey says) -
Q 3:
S&X : ASP : 90k, COGS : 76k
3 : ASP 51k, COGS : 40k

(non-lease) margin : 19.9% <- calculated

So, depending on what we take from the surveys, the margin will overall stay the same as Q2 or go up by 2%.

ps :

According to my model -
S&X ASP : $90,000
3 ASP : $49k
non-lease margin : 17.7%
Revenue : $6.240B
non-Gaap : $64M loss

S&X ASP : $90,000
3 ASP : $51k
non-lease margin : 19.9%
Revenue : $6.388B
non-Gaap : $73M profit
​