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Near-future quarterly financial projections

Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
2,010
7,298
Hi everybody. My production estimate for Q1 2020 is 105,563 units. Here is my calculation:

• Elon said they produced the 1 millionth car at the end of 9 March 2020. I'm calculating 919,572 units produced by the end of Q4 2019. That means Q1 production including 9 March should be 1,000,000-919,572= 80,428 units.
• Based on reports, I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai including 9 March was 5,884 units (2,625 in Jan + 3,898 in Feb + 1,986 units in nine days of March= 5,884 units).
• Therefore production in Fremont by the end of 9 March should be around 80,428-5,884= 74,544 units.
• Tesla said Fremont would stop production at the end of 23 March. Therefore if Fremont production was 74,544 units in 69 days, in 83 days it should be 74,544*83/69= 89,669 units.
• I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai will be 15,894 units. Therefore my total production estimate for Q1 is 89,669+15,894= 105,563 units.

Monthly production estimate for Shanghai:
  • Jan 2020: 2,625 units
  • Feb 2020: 3,898
  • Mar 2020: 9,371
  • Total: 15,894 units

March breakdown:
  • week 1: 1500 units
  • week 2: 2000
  • week 3: 2400
  • week 4: 2700
  • 30-31 March: 771
  • Total: 9,371 units
 

Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
2,010
7,298
There is a mistake in my calculation above. Q1 Shanghai until 9 March should be 8,509 units instead of 5,884. Here is the new calculation:

Hi everybody. My production estimate for Q1 2020 is 102,405 units. Here is my calculation:

• Elon said they produced the 1 millionth car at the end of 9 March 2020. I'm calculating 919,572 units produced by the end of Q4 2019. That means Q1 production including 9 March should be 1,000,000-919,572= 80,428 units.
• Based on reports, I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai including 9 March was 8,509 units (2,625 in Jan + 3,898 in Feb + 1,986 units in nine days of March= 8,509 units).
• Therefore production in Fremont by the end of 9 March should be around 80,428-8,509= 71,919 units.
• Tesla said Fremont would stop production at the end of 23 March. Therefore if Fremont production was 71,919 units in 69 days, in 83 days it should be 71,919*83/69= 86,511 units.
• I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai will be 15,894 units. Therefore my total production estimate for Q1 is 86,511+15,894= 102,405 units.

Monthly production estimate for Shanghai:
  • Jan 2020: 2,625 units
  • Feb 2020: 3,898
  • Mar 2020: 9,371
  • Total: 15,894 units

March breakdown:
  • week 1: 1500 units
  • week 2: 2000
  • week 3: 2400
  • week 4: 2700
  • 30-31 March: 771
  • Total: 9,371 units
 

Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
2,010
7,298
I started a survey that asks these two questions:

• What is your Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020?
• When do you think Tesla's Fremont factory will start vehicle production again?

You can enter your estimates here: Tesla production and delivery estimates

You can view the results here: Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey

Currently, it looks like this:
rPR6VpB.png


Here is how the average is calculated for the last column (the date column). I convert each date to the number of days from 23 March 2020 which is when Fremont stopped production. For example, if somebody estimates production will resume on 13 April 2020, that's 21 days from 23 March. If somebody estimates 20 April 2020, that's 28 days from 23 March. Then I take the average of 21 days, 28 days etc and add that average to 23 March.
 
Looks like some FSD feature (stopping for red lights/stop signs) may get released in the next release. Will it be before end of the month - so that atleast some revenue can be recognized ?
They'd be smart to save it for a future quarter. Q1 and possibly Q2 should be kitchen sink quarters.
 
I started a survey that asks these two questions:

• What is your Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020?
• When do you think Tesla's Fremont factory will start vehicle production again?

You can enter your estimates here: Tesla production and delivery estimates

You can view the results here: Tesla Delivery Estimates Survey

Currently, it looks like this:
rPR6VpB.png


Here is how the average is calculated for the last column (the date column). I convert each date to the number of days from 23 March 2020 which is when Fremont stopped production. For example, if somebody estimates production will resume on 13 April 2020, that's 21 days from 23 March. If somebody estimates 20 April 2020, that's 28 days from 23 March. Then I take the average of 21 days, 28 days etc and add that average to 23 March.

Time to add "cancelled order" column to your tracker spreadsheet?
 
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Regarding Q1 delivery estimates:

How many cars are usually listed as "existing inventory" at tesla.com at the end of each quarter? It looks like there is some inventory in Europe at least. Any idea are those cancellations since European custom orders were sold out in early Feb if I recall correctly? It wouldn't make sense to list delayed deliveries as inventory.

In the Q4 letter they stated "Due to ramp of Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, production will likely outpace deliveries this year." I think they meant some additional local inventory in Fremont & Shanghai at the end of each quarter. Certainly not European inventory at this point. In theory, they could have planned over-producing on purpose during Q1 despite seasonally weak demand if full year demand comfortably exceeds supply. Even then why to write "estimated delivery: May" on European website if that's not the case. At least they should mention it doesn't mean all trims and colors.

Just trying to figure out whether I should buy some calls before or after the report. This Q harder to predict than ever.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
16,346
41,435
Seattle, WA
They'd be smart to save it for a future quarter. Q1 and possibly Q2 should be kitchen sink quarters.
Well, today is the last date they could release some features and claim some revenue. I don't think it is happening - no new firmware on TeslaFi.

Anyway, with the SP being where it is - Tesla may not care that much.

ps : Anyone knows when the numbers will be out ? What is the industry date for releasing Q1 numbers ? Earlier I could easily find the auto delivery number release calendar … no longer.
 
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dc_h

Active Member
Feb 14, 2015
3,715
14,175
Naperville, IL
Well, today is the last date they could release some features and claim some revenue. I don't think it is happening - no new firmware on TeslaFi.

Anyway, with the SP being where it is - Tesla may not care that much.

I think they intend steady releases and taking ~200 million per quarter as income. I think they've released enough enhancments and improvements to recognize more income and expect they'll do the same in Q2. I'm sure they can fiddle with this number, but easier to put this on "autopilot" and just recognize a steady revenue stream.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
16,346
41,435
Seattle, WA
I think they intend steady releases and taking ~200 million per quarter as income. I think they've released enough enhancments and improvements to recognize more income and expect they'll do the same in Q2. I'm sure they can fiddle with this number, but easier to put this on "autopilot" and just recognize a steady revenue stream.
They have definitely not released anything worth 200M this quarter.

They may be able to claim some revenue related to HW3 upgrades, though. But those will have little impact on the bottom line.
 

Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
2,010
7,298
Hi everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is 83,100 units. The first table shows how my estimate has changed over time throughout the quarter. The second table shows the monthly and regional breakdown for the estimated 83,100 units. I lowered my estimate dramatically because I expect weak sales in the US.

My estimate for production is 86,500 Fremont + 15,900 Shanghai= 102,400 units in total. Normally, production wouldn't be that important but this time it will be important because they will have some inventory to sell if the Fremont factory remains shut down for a while. In this scenario, they would have 102,400-83,100= 19,300 unsold units from Q1 production. In addition, they had 15,500 units inventory at the end of Q4 2019. That means they would be entering Q2 2020 with 34,800 units in inventory. In addition, I estimate that the Shanghai factory will produce 37,000 units in Q2 and 34K of that could be deliverable in time in Q2. That suggests they would have at least 69K units to sell in Q2 in the worst-case scenario if Fremont remains closed throughout Q2.

66cVLqC.png
 
That was me with the 83000 guess. Do I win anything. Jk. Hope we are under.
Hi everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is 83,100 units. The first table shows how my estimate has changed over time throughout the quarter. The second table shows the monthly and regional breakdown for the estimated 83,100 units. I lowered my estimate dramatically because I expect weak sales in the US.

My estimate for production is 86,500 Fremont + 15,900 Shanghai= 102,400 units in total. Normally, production wouldn't be that important but this time it will be important because they will have some inventory to sell if the Fremont factory remains shut down for a while. In this scenario, they would have 102,400-83,100= 19,300 unsold units from Q1 production. In addition, they had 15,500 units inventory at the end of Q4 2019. That means they would be entering Q2 2020 with 34,800 units in inventory. In addition, I estimate that the Shanghai factory will produce 37,000 units in Q2 and 34K of that could be deliverable in time in Q2. That suggests they would have at least 69K units to sell in Q2 in the worst-case scenario if Fremont remains closed throughout Q2.

66cVLqC.png
 
Hi everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is 83,100 units. The first table shows how my estimate has changed over time throughout the quarter. The second table shows the monthly and regional breakdown for the estimated 83,100 units. I lowered my estimate dramatically because I expect weak sales in the US.

My estimate for production is 86,500 Fremont + 15,900 Shanghai= 102,400 units in total. Normally, production wouldn't be that important but this time it will be important because they will have some inventory to sell if the Fremont factory remains shut down for a while. In this scenario, they would have 102,400-83,100= 19,300 unsold units from Q1 production. In addition, they had 15,500 units inventory at the end of Q4 2019. That means they would be entering Q2 2020 with 34,800 units in inventory. In addition, I estimate that the Shanghai factory will produce 37,000 units in Q2 and 34K of that could be deliverable in time in Q2. That suggests they would have at least 69K units to sell in Q2 in the worst-case scenario if Fremont remains closed throughout Q2.

66cVLqC.png
Troy, is your huge drop in US deliveries based on your spreadsheets or chatter about cancellations? Or is it more of a gut feel? My numbers are very close to yours everywhere else, but I don't know what to think about the US market.
 
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Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
2,010
7,298
Troy, is your huge drop in US deliveries based on your spreadsheets or chatter about cancellations? Or is it more of a gut feel? My numbers are very close to yours everywhere else, but I don't know what to think about the US market.

  • There were 861 US deliveries reported in my Model 3 Order Tracker here in Q4 2019 compared to 546 this quarter.
  • In the Model 3 Order Tracker, deliveries reported for March are not as high as it should be compared to February.
  • I'm getting reports that US deliveries will be low.
  • My estimate for Canada is high. This affects my estimate for US because one of the three methods I use to calculate US deliveries is based on making a calculation for North America and then splitting that number into US and Canada. Canada is high because, in the Model 3 Order Tracker, more buyers from Canada reported taking delivery in Q1 2020 than in Q4 2019. In case people want to check the numbers themselves, here is the Order Tracker and here is a video that shows how to filter and sort the data. Some people enter a VIN date but don't enter a delivery date. I count those too.
 

mrdoubleb

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jul 2, 2013
2,615
14,579
Budapest, Hungary
  • There were 861 US deliveries reported in my Model 3 Order Tracker here in Q4 2019 compared to 546 this quarter.
  • In the Model 3 Order Tracker, deliveries reported for March are not as high as it should be compared to February.
  • I'm getting reports that US deliveries will be low.
  • My estimate for Canada is high. This affects my estimate for US because one of the three methods I use to calculate US deliveries is based on making a calculation for North America and then splitting that number into US and Canada. Canada is high because, in the Model 3 Order Tracker, more buyers from Canada reported taking delivery in Q1 2020 than in Q4 2019. In case people want to check the numbers themselves, here is the Order Tracker and here is a video that shows how to filter and sort the data. Some people enter a VIN date but don't enter a delivery date. I count those too.
Troy,

I know you are very much aware of the current status of the European data we collect as you are one of the if not THE key contributor...

So without Germany and the UK we are at 15,568 for the quarter and you were expecting 24k. Germany was showing strength lately and the UK is becoming one of the biggest markets for Tesla, so those two should boost the numbers significantly. Still, I don`t expect and additional 8k from these two markets in March. UK December 2014 was 2824, Germany 1129, so at most I would expect 4k from these countries in March. Possibly less.

What`s your take on the data coming in? I think we are trending <80k deliveries globally.
 
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Troy

Active Member
Aug 24, 2015
2,010
7,298
Hi @mrdoubleb. EU looks like 20,100 right now compared to my estimate at 24K. So that would be 3,900 less. However, my US estimate might be 1500 less than actual. Therefore my best guess right now is, the actual number could be 80,700 (83,100 - 3,900 + 1500).

Just to be clear, I never change my estimate after the quarter is over because that would be wrong because we start getting actual numbers from Europe on the very next day. Therefore my estimate is still 83,100 units. Generally, I'm off by 3-4K. I would be happy with that kind of error. Let's hope US is not lower than my already very low estimate.
 
Troy,

I know you are very much aware of the current status of the European data we collect as you are one of the if not THE key contributor...

So without Germany and the UK we are at 15,568 for the quarter and you were expecting 24k. Germany was showing strength lately and the UK is becoming one of the biggest markets for Tesla, so those two should boost the numbers significantly. Still, I don`t expect and additional 8k from these two markets in March. UK December 2014 was 2824, Germany 1129, so at most I would expect 4k from these countries in March. Possibly less.

What`s your take on the data coming in? I think we are trending <80k deliveries globally.
The UK BIK change is a huge deal, similar to but less extreme than the Netherlands in Q4 with large block sales to leasing companies. I expected almost 10k deliveries in the UK this quarter, but after seeing record quarters in France, Belgium, Italy, etc. I'd adjust that to 8k.

6 of the 7 ships that went to Zeebrugge in Q1 also went to Southampton. They've never done that before. IMHO Troy's 24k Europe estimate looks pretty good.
 
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EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
16,346
41,435
Seattle, WA
Looks like UK deliveries got impacted quite a bit, anecdotally. They were trying to find "essential workers" who could get out of home and take deliveries. Some they delivered to home.

Model 3 Orders and Deliveries

ps : They should just stop this quarter end circus and deliver normally, even at the end of the quarter.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
16,346
41,435
Seattle, WA
Good news - 88k deliveries on 101k production.

Unfortunately Tesla didn't break out Y from 3. I'm guessing 1,200 Ys delivered of 1,500 produced.

Big question now is - what is the auto margin. It improved dramatically from 13.3% to 15.9% to 19.2% in Q1->Q2->Q3 last year, ending with 19.9% in Q4. My assumption was in Q1 it would be 19%, given GF3 and Y ramp up. Now with all the inefficiencies associated with Covid, I won't be surprised if the margin has dropped further. With 19%, I get a gaap loss of about $100M. With 18% margin, it goes to $150M loss.
 
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