Near-future quarterly financial projections

[RobbyJ]

Question: is anyone taking into account the cost of 1000+ ventilators @ 35.000 USD apparently? They will probably get some discount, but are giving them away free + free shipping.
So let's keep it at 35.000 USD x 1000 = 35 million.
Not saying they shouldn't have done it of course, just wondering if anyone is adding the cost into their model?

 

[hobbes]

Question: is anyone taking into account the cost of 1000+ ventilators @ 35.000 USD apparently? They will probably get some discount, but are giving them away free + free shipping.
So let's keep it at 35.000 USD x 1000 = 35 million.
Not saying they shouldn't have done it of course, just wondering if anyone is adding the cost into their model?

I would guess that is not Tesla´s but Elon´s money. But I have nothing to back that up.

 

[dc_h]

I would guess that is not Tesla´s but Elon´s money. But I have nothing to back that up.

I doubt they’re 35,000 in cost to Tesla. They can’t make cars right now, so the engineers have a great and useful project. Hopefully they make a couple to few thousand and we don’t need them again and they move on. Total cost 10-20 million but needed and positive

 

[RobbyJ]

I doubt they’re 35,000 in cost to Tesla. They can’t make cars right now, so the engineers have a great and useful project. Hopefully they make a couple to few thousand and we don’t need them again and they move on. Total cost 10-20 million but needed and positive

I'm not talking about the ones they're making themselves out of M3 parts, I'm talking about the 1000 they bought out of China and are giving away for free.
So the question remains for the smart people making calculations

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm not talking about the ones they're making themselves out of M3 parts, I'm talking about the 1000 they bought out of China and are giving away for free.
So the question remains for the smart people making calculations

All 1,000 weren't the $35k invasive ones. A bunch of them were the cheaper BiPap ones that they were given crap about.

 

[Singer3000]

There is enough money in the bank for Tesla to weather one quarter of lowered production. Will it be Europe or US that get shorted or will it be shared evenly. I don’t know and I frankly I don’t care. It’s a more bullish signal I think to just ignore Europe as it would show robust US demand. That’s the real tail risk I’m tracking lower demand over some period of time which would increase inventory and probably lower margins through sales incentives.

Q2 would be the perfect time to finally unwind the wave.

I cannot speak for other markets as I haven’t bothered checking. But there is a bucket load of inventory Model 3 (including SR+) on the UK site for immediate delivery, both new and used.

I find it bizarre that anyone can think we won’t see substantially lower demand for Tesla’s cars, given the economic shock the world is facing is arguably unparalleled in recorded human history.

 

[willow_hiller]

I cannot speak for other markets as I haven’t bothered checking. But there is a bucket load of inventory Model 3 (including SR+) on the UK site for immediate delivery, both new and used.

I find it bizarre that anyone can think we won’t see substantially lower demand for Tesla’s cars, given the economic shock the world is facing is arguably unparalleled in recorded human history.

I don't think anyone honestly believes demand won't be reduced. It's just that pre-pandemic demand was greater than supply, and now due to factory-floor shutdowns post-pandemic demand be greater than supply.

 

[FrankSG]

I've finished my Q1'20 earnings forecast. For the reasoning behind my decisions, please refer to my blog.

Summary

• 
  
  
  • Automotive Revenue = $4.96B
  • Automotive Sales Gross Margin Excluding Credits = 18.3%
  • Automotive Sales Gross Margin Including Credits = 20.9%
  • Total Revenue = $6.05B
  • Gross Profit = $1.08B
  • EBIT = $70M
  • GAAP Proft = -$150M
  • GAAP EPS = -$0.78
  • Non-GAAP EPS = $0.78
  • Free Cash Flow = $25M

Energy

Automotive

Income

Cash Flows

 

[jeewee3000]

I've finished my Q1'20 earnings forecast. For the reasoning behind my decisions, please refer to my blog.

Thank you for sharing your numbers. I always appreciate your input, however quiet I may be at recent times.

 

[hobbes]

I've finished my Q1'20 earnings forecast. For the reasoning behind my decisions, please refer to my blog.

Summary

• 
  
  
  • Automotive Revenue = $4.96B
  • Automotive Sales Gross Margin Excluding Credits = 18.3%
  • Automotive Sales Gross Margin Including Credits = 20.9%
  • Total Revenue = $6.05B
  • Gross Profit = $1.08B
  • EBIT = $70M
  • GAAP Proft = -$150M
  • GAAP EPS = -$0.78
  • Non-GAAP EPS = $0.78
  • Free Cash Flow = $25M

Energy

View attachment 532178

Automotive

View attachment 532173
View attachment 532174
View attachment 532175

Income

View attachment 532179
View attachment 532180

Cash Flows

View attachment 532176
View attachment 532177

Thanks for your detailed analysis, very much appreciated. Especially like your comentary on the blog post, too.

One question: you write $0,78 for non-GAAP EPS in your commentary but the table says $-1.12 - am I reading something wrong or is it a typo?

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks for your detailed analysis, very much appreciated. Especially like your comentary on the blog post, too.

One question: you write $0,78 for non-GAAP EPS in your commentary but the table says $-1.12 - am I reading something wrong or is it a typo?

Thanks for pointing out this mistake. I copy pasted the numbers from Q1'19 and Q2'19 by accident. Fixed it now both in the blog and forum post.

 

[Nate the Great]

Thanks for pointing out this mistake. I copy pasted the numbers from Q1'19 and Q2'19 by accident. Fixed it now both in the blog and forum post.

Did your analysis include FSD revenue?

 

[Doggydogworld]

I've finished my Q1'20 earnings forecast. For the reasoning behind my decisions, please refer to my blog.

Summary

• 
  
  
  • Automotive Revenue = $4.96B
  • Automotive Sales Gross Margin Excluding Credits = 18.3%
  • Automotive Sales Gross Margin Including Credits = 20.9%
  • Total Revenue = $6.05B
  • Gross Profit = $1.08B
  • EBIT = $70M
  • GAAP Proft = -$150M
  • GAAP EPS = -$0.78
  • Non-GAAP EPS = $0.78
  • Free Cash Flow = $25M

Energy

View attachment 532178

Automotive

View attachment 532173
View attachment 532174
View attachment 532175

Income

View attachment 532179
View attachment 532197

Cash Flows

View attachment 532176
View attachment 532177

Thanks for posting your very detailed model. The first thing that jumps out at me is $1.75/W solar sales. I use 2.75/W. Also, I estimate solar leasing revenue of ~70m in Q4 and Q1 due to low kWh production. I used to use ~30% gross margin for solar sales, but that's probably slipped a bit. I also use 30% full year margin for solar leasing, but I don't know how they handle seasonality. I don't think energy storage margin is anywhere near 40%, BTW. It's been negative most quarters, slightly positive more recently.

3250 solar roofs is a lot more than I would guess, but hopefully we'll find out soon enough.

 

[roblab]

Question: is anyone taking into account the cost of 1000+ ventilators @ 35.000 USD apparently? They will probably get some discount, but are giving them away free + free shipping.
So let's keep it at 35.000 USD x 1000 = 35 million.
Not saying they shouldn't have done it of course, just wondering if anyone is adding the cost into their model?

1000 times $35 is $35,000. No where near 35 million. 3% of a million. And I doubt that shipping is all that expensive, either.
Us the American way of counting, and don't toss all those extra zeros onto your figures.

 

[willow_hiller]

1000 times $35 is $35,000.

The European convention for a thousands separator is our convention for a decimal point.

EDIT: Realized way too late that was the joke. And judging by your disagrees I'm guessing I'm not the first to miss the joke either.

 

[MP3Mike]

1000 times $35 is $35,000. No where near 35 million. 3% of a million. And I doubt that shipping is all that expensive, either.
Us the American way of counting, and don't toss all those extra zeros onto your figures.

The full invasive ventilators are ~$35k/each. So if Tesla provided a 1,000 of them, which they didn't, it would be $35 million.

 

[roblab]

Ahh, thank you. Glad I don't need a ventilator, as I couldn't afford a Model 3.

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks for posting your very detailed model. The first thing that jumps out at me is $1.75/W solar sales. I use 2.75/W. Also, I estimate solar leasing revenue of ~70m in Q4 and Q1 due to low kWh production. I used to use ~30% gross margin for solar sales, but that's probably slipped a bit. I also use 30% full year margin for solar leasing, but I don't know how they handle seasonality. I don't think energy storage margin is anywhere near 40%, BTW. It's been negative most quarters, slightly positive more recently.

3250 solar roofs is a lot more than I would guess, but hopefully we'll find out soon enough.

Although my solar model turned out to be extremely close in Q4 on revenues, I've lost some confidence in it, because I've realised the Leasing/Sales breakdown Tesla used to give was residential only. Furthermore, it looks like they've now stopped reporting these numbers, so it'll be harder to track them going forward.

With regards to Solar Roof, have you seen this tweet?

Tesla on Twitter

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Although my solar model turned out to be extremely close in Q4 on revenues, I've lost some confidence in it, because I've realised the Leasing/Sales breakdown Tesla used to give was residential only. Furthermore, it looks like they've now stopped reporting these numbers, so it'll be harder to track them going forward.

With regards to Solar Roof, have you seen this tweet?

Tesla on Twitter

Pretty good agreement for the items you outline in your Q1 figures. I am a bit more optimistic regarding the margins and that there will be some increases in credits and one-off items. Profit wise it will be these non-operational items that we cannot gauge from the outside that will determine if Q1 is a smallish loss of the size you estimate or a very small profit.

Certainly expecting it to be much better than Q1 last year

 

[Nate the Great]

Although my solar model turned out to be extremely close in Q4 on revenues, I've lost some confidence in it, because I've realised the Leasing/Sales breakdown Tesla used to give was residential only. Furthermore, it looks like they've now stopped reporting these numbers, so it'll be harder to track them going forward.

With regards to Solar Roof, have you seen this tweet?

Tesla on Twitter

I believe they are referring to building, not installing.

This would help with Q2, though.