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Near-future quarterly financial projections

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If there were 3,500 at the end of Q4 2020...
Just to be clear, it was 5500 at end of Q4 2020 and 3500 at end of Q1 2021.
I assume Tesla loaners are eventually sold as used? But how and when do they get moved to the used inventory? Does that actually count as a 'sale' eventhough it's internal? I would guess not but do we know how it's handled in the bookkeeping?
They sell some cars as "demos" after a six months or a year or so with a few thousand miles on them. All dealers do that. Tesla very occasionally lists a longer term car (2-3 years old) for sale in the US or Europe.

They moved ~1500 long term cars from Finished Goods Inventory to PP&E a year or two back. I assume they've done this other times, but the amounts were too small to mention. I assume auditors won't let them keep cars in FGI more than a year. If they sell while still in FGI it counts toward deliveries and Auto Sales Revenue. It also dings margin due to discounting for the miles on the odometer. Once moved to PP&E they depreciate it. I assume depreciation expense goes into Services & Other, but Tesla doesn't say. After they depreciate it down far enough they can sell for cheap, maybe to an employee or something. I assume these sales count in Services & Other, same as used cars, and would not affect Auto Sales Revenue or Auto gross margin.

The real question is whether they count older cars sold out of PP&E as deliveries. I assume they do. If not then those 3500 cars could have been sold years ago, with no way for us to track them. Tesla doesn't disclose any of this, and analysts rarely ask. One did ask a few years ago if they depreciated demos and loaners, but Deepak blew him off with a non-answer.

Also, some people say Tesla counts "engineering cars" which never get sold in their production totals, and that explains a big chunk of the 3500 gap between production and deliveries. I think it's unlikely they include such cars in their production count. Even if they do it's dozens of cars, not thousands.
 
Expanded my crude & conservative Earnings estimates to 2022 and included my vehicle estimates.

over $10 GAAP EPS in 2022.

Only displaying GAAP net income, and I don't have a handle on vehicle lease numbers so have just rolled that into automotive total (ditto regulatory credits).

some assumptions:

- Model 3 capacity maxes out at 125k per quarter between Fremont & Shanghai (500k annual total)
- less than 10k of deliveries from Austin/Berlin in 2021 (closer to zero assumed), volume deliveries in Q122, with aggressive ramp.
- ASPs hold up due to introduction of US tax credit
- CT & Roadster start prodcution around mid-2022, Semi in Q122, but slow ramp.
- No big jumps in growth from Energy & Services, but both become increasingly profitable.

Please feel free to disagree and point out where you differ substantially with my figures/assumptions.
View attachment 660071
Just realized I should have stuck with my original estimate for Q2 in the post above, with the 201,500 delivery estimate.
 
Latest Q2 Forecast
Slight tweaks to my forecast; the most significant change is that I reduced Bitcoin impairment from $115m to $104m.
My non-GAAP EPS is $1.06 with Impairment and $1.14 excluding impairment. Wall Street EPS consensus is $0.96.

1626013914549.png
 
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Even My 2021 Bear Case Scenario Beats Wall Street EPS Estimates

I assume:
- nothing from Berlin and Austin and thus no Semi and no Cybertruck
- I assume no Model X in 2021 (Refresh to 2022)
- growth in deliveries of about 25k in Q3 and 25k in Q4 coming from:
-----------Ramp up of Model S in Fremont
-----------Ramp up of Model Y in Shanghai
- Declining Regulatory Credits in Q3 and Q4
- No further Bitcoin impairments
- No Deferred Tax Benefit recognized

- I slightly tweak pricing and margins but nothing that moves the needle much.
- SG&A bounces down and then down due to CEO Award compensation timing.

Even with this bear case, I have $5.00 in EPS vs Wall Street of $4.48 (a 12% beat).
Wall Street will likely start to move their estimates up as we progress into Q3.


1626023721106.png
 
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Well, the fat part of at least one 'S curve' is behind us now: :D

James Stephenson on Twitter: "Here's my projection of CEO Performance Award stock-based compensation expense. >70% of the $2.283B maximum that can be expensed over the 10-year life of the plan has been expensed already and >$1B of that hit over the last 4 quarters, so I expect it to taper down rapidly."

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James predicts that Elon's 2018 CEO Comp plan will be fully expensed in the next 5 quarters.

I predict that Gigas Austin and Berlin will be online and at volume production in that time, and FSD will be generally available.

I also predict Tels will be debt-free by that time. $$$ is going to start piling up in the many billions.

Cheers!
 
Even My 2021 Bear Case Scenario Beats Wall Street EPS Estimates

I assume:
- nothing from Berlin and Austin and thus no Semi and no Cybertruck
- I assume no Model X in 2021 (Refresh to 2022)
- growth in deliveries of about 25k in Q3 and 25k in Q4 coming from:
-----------Ramp up of Model S in Fremont
-----------Ramp up of Model Y in Shanghai
- Declining Regulatory Credits in Q3 and Q4
- No further Bitcoin impairments
- No Deferred Tax Benefit recognized
- I slightly tweak pricing and margins but nothing that moves the needle much.
- SG&A bounces down and then down due to CEO Award compensation timing.

Even with this bear case, I have $5.00 in EPS vs Wall Street of $4.48 (a 12% beat).
Wall Street will likely start to move their estimates up as we progress into Q3.


View attachment 683477
Thanks for all the great work. I'm not a finance person. I'm really interested in the P/E & shareprice qualities of your predictions.

Can I ask you to consider another row or 2 for

P/E ratio (forward, Trailing 12 months?). 656.95/5 gets us to 131.39 from over 600/1100 not too long ago. 656.95/(1.64*4 qtrs) gets to p/e of 100? Compare to Appl - 32.56, FB - 30, Goog 32. None growing at Tesla's rate.

Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio
 
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Thanks for all the great work. I'm not a finance person. I'm really interested in the P/E & shareprice qualities of your predictions.

Can I ask you to consider another row or 2 for

P/E ratio (forward, Trailing 12 months?). 656.95/5 gets us to 131.39 from over 600/1100 not too long ago. 656.95/(1.64*4 qtrs) gets to p/e of 100? Compare to Appl - 32.56, FB - 30, Goog 32. None growing at Tesla's rate.

Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio
Yes - I can add that going forward. One thing to note:

When we see the P/E on Yahoo and other stock sites, you will see P/E using GAAP EPS. The Analysts use Non-GAAP.
The reason why these Market Sites use GAAP EPS is because that is what is published in the SEC filing (Non-GAAP is not).

Using GAAP EPS is incorrect in my view because the stock compensation is incorrectly counted twice.
EPS is Earnings divided by the "fully diluted" Shares. That means GAAP EPS has stock option expense in the numerator (earnings) and assumes the stock options are exercised and included in the denominator (shares). The impact is double counted as it decreases the numerator and increases the denominator.

Thus non-GAAP EPS (which exludes stock compensation from earnings) is a better calculation in my opinion.
 
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It will be interesting to see how valuation measures change over time, even after earnings in a few days/weeks - Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Valuation Measures & Financial Statistics

Forward P/E is based on consensus (as I understand) and isn't based on 50-150% growth. 50% minimum, but 2 new Gigafactories/4680 supply will be huge growth catalysts. I'm curious when 5 year expected PEG ratio gets below 1 (Peter Lynch benchmark). Again, it's based on VERY conservative consensus, so will lag reality/Tesla growth

1626103163357.png
 
How's that long-term model coming along @accountant?
Done !
I kept it to a 5 year model and you can find details here:
 
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I know people have shared James's stuff here before, but he has trailing earnings *tripling* from 2Q21 to 4Q21? Am I reading that right?
He is assuming $1.6B in Deferred Tax Benefit in Q4 2021 which distorts the growth.
But even deducting that benefit Tesla more than doubles their TTM earnings from Q2 to Q4.
 
Thus non-GAAP EPS (which exludes stock compensation from earnings) is a better calculation in my opinion.

Since we're stuck with reporting GAAP EPS to the SEC, can we examine the effect of the TSLA SP on Elon's CEO Comp expense?

Am I correct that the amnt that Telsa claims in SBC expense varies with the SP at the time the expense is booked? Ie: Tesla must claim the cost of the shares at current market value?

If so, is there a benefit to Tesla to fully expensing Elon's SBC before the next runup ie: back to $900 or even $1,200 per share as some bullish analysts have set their 12-mth price tgt? TIA.

Paging @st_lopes for tax issues.

Cheers!