Exciting implication. China production and deliveries could be over 165k and up to 175k. Fremont appears to be ramping and S/X should finally be well over 10,000. 290-300k is not out of reach, which would beat estimates and blow out earnings. Production around 300,000 would also allow Tesla to delay some deliveries at the end of the quarter and setup a ridiculous Q1. US delayed deliveries are the big wild card for Q4.
"I assume chip shortage is solved" - for Tesla (& possibly some Chinese firms), not legacy, huge open goal to anyone making half-decent EVS, ICE not even on the pitch.
That 54k Shanghai delivery number for October includes a mandatory week-long holiday (Oct 1-7 for Chinese National Day). Assuming production was 95% of deliveries, that implies a full monthly production rate of 95%*54k/75% = 68.4k.
Delivery timelines are the product both of demand and of Tesla's choices around production mix allocation. So it could be true that Plaid delivery timelines are short because of weak demand for plaid, or because Plaid production is being prioritized heavily due to higher margins. In the past we've seen Tesla do this kind of thing, especially during the 2017-2018 Model 3 ramp.
In that case probably your plaid mix estimate is probably closer to reality.Here’s one order tracker: Teslike Model S/X Order Tracker
The stats on the options/ASP sheets in there aren’t current, but I expect them to be at least moderately representative of the base/plaid split. I mean, if 80% of orders were non-plaid historically, I don’t see that changing to 100% plaid now, and if all base reservation holders were getting the silent treatment while plaid deliveries were happening right and left, I think there would be more of an uproar.
The model X waiting room here on TMC has info on the X orders and deliveries: Refreshed 2021 Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room
Most orders are non-plaid and there have been zero confirmed plaid deliveries. One person who took delivery at the factory was told all plaids are on hold due to regulatory delays, but there’s only the one source as far as I know. Another person was told by an SA that plaid deliveries had happened in NY if I recall correctly, but that’s being treated as unreliable as there’s been no reports or pics of any customer plaid X by anybody anywhere. Again that’s just the X, and you’re probably right that most who want a super car don’t pick an SUV… though the Cayenne and Urus seem to do OK. And the X is a pretty good family compromise for those who enjoy both roller-coasters and procreation.
You may also be right that the impact of lower S/X ASP isn’t huge… still I’d rather start from more defensible assumptions and build a great case from there, rather than being crazy optimistic from the start.
I'd support comp. plan 5% of TSLA company that starts westing at $5000, ends at $10000, and is conditioned (every tranche!) that Tesla has market cap that is at least twice of second largest company, for 6 months running.
Largely agree, but he only needs to hold specific positions until the last tranche vests (next year?). After that, as long as he is employed at Tesla, he can exercise the vested options. Post exercise, there is no comp plan based leverage beyond the linkage between Tesla's performance and his available resources (this being the rationale behind the 5 year holding period).
but on tesla u.s. model s config page, plaid still shows est. delivery of June 2022. this shows a of backlog orders? if they can make it, they can delivery everyone they made?Here’s one order tracker: Teslike Model S/X Order Tracker
The stats on the options/ASP sheets in there aren’t current, but I expect them to be at least moderately representative of the base/plaid split. I mean, if 80% of orders were non-plaid historically, I don’t see that changing to 100% plaid now, and if all base reservation holders were getting the silent treatment while plaid deliveries were happening right and left, I think there would be more of an uproar.
The model X waiting room here on TMC has info on the X orders and deliveries: Refreshed 2021 Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room
Most orders are non-plaid and there have been zero confirmed plaid deliveries. One person who took delivery at the factory was told all plaids are on hold due to regulatory delays, but there’s only the one source as far as I know. Another person was told by an SA that plaid deliveries had happened in NY if I recall correctly, but that’s being treated as unreliable as there’s been no reports or pics of any customer plaid X by anybody anywhere. Again that’s just the X, and you’re probably right that most who want a super car don’t pick an SUV… though the Cayenne and Urus seem to do OK. And the X is a pretty good family compromise for those who enjoy both roller-coasters and procreation.
You may also be right that the impact of lower S/X ASP isn’t huge… still I’d rather start from more defensible assumptions and build a great case from there, rather than being crazy optimistic from the start.
I’m not sure that will get you $10 Billion earnings - its closer to $6 Billion.
