Near-future quarterly financial projections

[EinSV]

Not sure how much of that capex they will actually cover from internal cash generation and how much from debt they are going to get from China banks.

They are forecasting that 100% of capex each quarter will be covered by operating cash flows. Financing cash flows, including debt from China banks, are separate for accounting purposes. (The mechanics of which bills are paid from which pot of $ is a different issue.)

Will be great if they can pull it off.

 

[EVNow]

They are forecasting that 100% of capex each quarter will be covered by operating cash flows.

I see it slightly differently - they can cover the Capex (for which they don't already have loan agreements) through internal cash generation i.e. unstated point is they won't need to raise any more capital. Which of course, they did

Anyway, with about 80k deliveries in Q2, they can generate about 450M from operations.

 

[EinSV]

I see it slightly differently - they can cover the Capex (for which they don't already have loan agreements) through internal cash generation i.e. unstated point is they won't need to raise any more capital. Which of course, they did

Anyway, with about 80k deliveries in Q2, they can generate about 450M from operations.

I went back and re-read the Q1 letter to make sure -- it seems clear they are just saying operating cash flow minus capex>0 each quarter.

This is what they said in their letter -- literally that operating cash flow minus capex should be positive each quarter in 2019:

"Our 2019 capex, the vast majority of which will be to grow our capacity and develop new vehicles, is expected to be about $2.0 to $2.5 billion. We believe this amount should be sufficient to continue to develop our main projects, such as Gigafactory Shanghai, Model Y and Tesla Semi, as well as for the further expansion of our Supercharger and service networks.

Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2" https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f

I agree that if they are able to stay free cash flow positive they won't need any more capital this year. They do have a fairly big convertible payment due in November ($566M), but that shouldn't be an issue with the amount of cash they have in the bank.

 

[mongo]

Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2.

Interesting, I had read that differently. Operating cash flow excluding capex should be positive...

However, now that I look it up, Capex is not part of operating cashflow, so no reason to call it out unless they mean it like you are saying.

 

[EinSV]

Interesting, I had read that differently. Operating cash flow excluding capex should be positive...

However, now that I look it up, Capex is not part of operating cashflow, so no reason to call it out unless they mean it like you are saying.

“Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2“

Yep — guidance is very clear: OCF-CapEx > 0

Aka free cash flow positive

 

[tmoz]

Will feel much better if they hit that. I'm also assuming that if demand, supported by word of mouth advertising, became a problem, it wouldn't take many advertising dollars to juice up demand to match capacity.

 

[EVNow]

I agree that if they are able to stay free cash flow positive they won't need any more capital this year. They do have a fairly big convertible payment due in November ($566M), but that shouldn't be an issue with the amount of cash they have in the bank.

If they sell 90k, like their guidance, they could make about 550M in operating cash flow. This level of cash flow along with loans they can get in China (and EU for the GF there) should be enough for them to sustainably grow until Y comes online in volume in 2021.

They can sell 150k 3+Y a quarter, giving them some 1.3B in cash flow from 2022. All this with 20k S+X per quarter.

Ofcourse, robotaxi is the wild card. But probably won't happen until after Y is selling in volume.

 

[kakamora]

These cars will be "made in China", so if US relations become a concern, they can emphasize this local build aspect in their communication.

Hope you are right. But a Toyota produced in Texas or Mississippi is still considered a Japanese car. - And when the Nationalist propaganda on both sides is in full throttle, it becomes even more concerning.

I sooo hope you are right.

 

[XHabjab]

Hope you are right. But a Toyota produced in Texas or Mississippi is still considered a Japanese car. - And when the Nationalist propaganda on both sides is in full throttle, it becomes even more concerning.

I sooo hope you are right.

The ironic part of that is that the top 10 cars sold in the USA are Toyotas, Hondas, Nissans and Teslas. Most of the haters think that Tesla is the foreign car.

 

[Remus]

Hope you are right. But a Toyota produced in Texas or Mississippi is still considered a Japanese car. - And when the Nationalist propaganda on both sides is in full throttle, it becomes even more concerning.

I sooo hope you are right.

Multiple waves of anti Japan protests and even vandalism of Japanese cars several years ago in China, sales of of Japanese cars bounced back shortly after.

It will pass

 

[gluu]

P&D numbers are critical for this quarter. Anyone have good estimates?

Tesla Carriers

Tesla is guiding 90-100k deliveries and an increase in the number of cars in transit.

The current best estimates of april deliveries was 24k, of this 10k was in transit. So 14k manufactured and delivered in month 1.

12 ships at 2500 cars each = 30k, assuming they all get delivered this quarter.

If we conservatively estimate 14k delivered in May/June we have 28k

So 24 + 28 + 30 = 82k deliveries with a conservative (0) increase in month over month manufactured and delivered.

A ramp of 2k per month puts us at 88k.

So far it's looking more parabolic, June deliveries seem like they'll be substantially higher while April/May may be quite similar.

If we look at ships loaded in April and cars delivered, less in transit from Q1, they manufactured 14k + 5 ships at 2500 each = 26500. This would imply a production rate of ~ 6k cars per week S/3/X.

 

[Doggydogworld]

P&D numbers are critical for this quarter. Anyone have good estimates?

Tesla Carriers

Tesla is guiding 90-100k deliveries and an increase in the number of cars in transit.

The current best estimates of april deliveries was 24k, of this 10k was in transit. So 14k manufactured and delivered in month 1.

12 ships at 2500 cars each = 30k, assuming they all get delivered this quarter.

If we conservatively estimate 14k delivered in May/June we have 28k

So 24 + 28 + 30 = 82k deliveries with a conservative (0) increase in month over month manufactured and delivered.

A ramp of 2k per month puts us at 88k.

So far it's looking more parabolic, June deliveries seem like they'll be substantially higher while April/May may be quite similar.

If we look at ships loaded in April and cars delivered, less in transit from Q1, they manufactured 14k + 5 ships at 2500 each = 26500. This would imply a production rate of ~ 6k cars per week S/3/X.

Nobody has a good estimate of deliveries. Tesla quarters are too back-loaded. My guesses for Model 3 were:

35k - US (10/10/15 April/May/June)
20k - Europe (Q2 has a head start over Q1, but ramp is slower)
10k - China (total guess)​

That's 65k, plus maybe 15k S/X. They seem to have a problem with Raven S/X, but they have plenty of pre-Raven inventory so 15k is still a low bar. With some heroics they could be 70k+ Model 3 and 20k S/X, which would meet their guidance.

It wasn't clear to me why you added 30k shipped cars to your 14k/month of delivered production and 10k+ of Q1 carryover.

 

[kakamora]

P&D numbers are critical for this quarter. Anyone have good estimates?

Tesla Carriers

This is some awesome data. hat tip to the person gathering it. Thank you for sharing. Bookmarked.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

12 ships at 2500 cars each = 30k, assuming they all get delivered this quarter.

Getting that 12th offloaded and delivered seems dicey, would have to go to China for any real shot. Seems better to conservatively estimate 11 ships.

I think there will be a wave of deliveries for S/X in NA for June. I know for a fact S/X's were coming out of the factory in early May with international plates and it looks like in the past few days people have started to get Vins/deliveries in NA.

 

[anon]

I know for a fact S/X's were coming out of the factory in early May with international plates and it looks like in the past few days people have started to get Vins/deliveries in NA.

That's interesting info, suggests that there need not have been as significant a delay in Raven S/X production as I had imagined from the delayed US deliveries. Did you see new S/X just on one day or were you near the factory often at that time? I'm just wondering if you know if they were building international cars over a sustained period of several days without obvious shutdowns.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

That's interesting info, suggests that there need not have been as significant a delay in Raven S/X production as I had imagined from the delayed US deliveries. Did you see new S/X just on one day or were you near the factory often at that time? I'm just wondering if you know if they were building international cars over a sustained period of several days without obvious shutdowns.

I mean there might have been a delay in US production but I believe they were starting international first which makes sense.

It was roughly May 7th, I was driving by and I haven't been back since. I observed X's in the main staging lot and multiple carriers coming fresh from the lots with international plates, suggesting international production for that day.

 

[anon]

I mean there might have been a delay in US production but I believe they were starting international first which makes sense.

It was roughly May 7th, I was driving by and I haven't been back since. I observed X's in the main staging lot and multiple carriers coming fresh from the lots with international plates, suggesting international production for that day.

That's interesting, thanks.

 

[EVNow]

P&D numbers are critical for this quarter. Anyone have good estimates?

Tesla Carriers

Tesla is guiding 90-100k deliveries and an increase in the number of cars in transit.

The current best estimates of april deliveries was 24k, of this 10k was in transit. So 14k manufactured and delivered in month 1.

12 ships at 2500 cars each = 30k, assuming they all get delivered this quarter.

If we conservatively estimate 14k delivered in May/June we have 28k

So 24 + 28 + 30 = 82k deliveries with a conservative (0) increase in month over month manufactured and delivered.

A ramp of 2k per month puts us at 88k.

So far it's looking more parabolic, June deliveries seem like they'll be substantially higher while April/May may be quite similar.

If we look at ships loaded in April and cars delivered, less in transit from Q1, they manufactured 14k + 5 ships at 2500 each = 26500. This would imply a production rate of ~ 6k cars per week S/3/X.

Couple things to consider.
- Unwinding of the wave. Are they doing it or not. They are definitely making and delivering 3 in NA. S+X is difficult to figure out because of refresh.
- They said they will be loading the ships full instead. If true they should be sending far more than 2,500.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Couple things to consider.
- Unwinding of the wave. Are they doing it or not. They are definitely making and delivering 3 in NA. S+X is difficult to figure out because of refresh.
- They said they will be loading the ships full instead. If true they should be sending far more than 2,500.

-We will know ahead of the production report if they are unwinding the wave just by keeping a normal cadence of car carriers through the EOQ. I think S&X will have a wave but will be much more manageable.
-I think doggy's point regarding no difference in loading time so far is fair and should mean that for this quarter we assume 2,500 avg or so conservatively.

 

[EVNow]

-I think doggy's point regarding no difference in loading time so far is fair and should mean that for this quarter we assume 2,500 avg or so conservatively.

Avg time at SFO dropped from 2.12 to 1.41 days for China, but increased from 2.87 to 3.22 for EU.

ps : Not sure what the below means.

If we take "idle time at pier 80" we see significant increase from Q1 to Q2. For China 0.59 to 3.07 and for EU 1.92 to 4.57. So, time at SFO + "idle time" goes up in Q2 significantly - 2.7 to 4.8 for China and 4.8 to 7.8 for EU.

Of the 3 ships to EU/CH that have unloaded too only 1 to 2 days. So, that is actually a little less than Q1. Not sure what to make of that.