Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Spacemanspliff]

Avg time at SFO dropped from 2.12 to 1.41 days for China, but increased from 2.87 to 3.22 for EU.

Did this include the ship bound for japan or just purely china?

ps : Not sure what the below means.

If we take "idle time at pier 80" we see significant increase from Q1 to Q2. For China 0.59 to 3.07 and for EU 1.92 to 4.57. So, time at SFO + "idle time" goes up in Q2 significantly - 2.7 to 4.8 for China and 4.8 to 7.8 for EU.

Of the 3 ships to EU/CH that have unloaded too only 1 to 2 days. So, that is actually a little less than Q1. Not sure what to make of that.

To me it seems like grasping at straws to think they got more efficient at how to load and unload cars while also stuffing more cars on per ship. I'd like to know what they do during idle time.

 

[EVNow]

Did this include the ship bound for japan or just purely china?

Just China.

To me it seems like grasping at straws to think they got more efficient at how to load and unload cars while also stuffing more cars on per ship. I'd like to know what they do during idle time.

Well, looks like Idle time has nothing to do with the particular ship. It is the time between a ship departing and the next ship coming. So, basically in Q1 within hours of a ship leaving the next ship would show up. Now a ship goes and then after 2 to 3 days the next ship comes.

So, clearly they are spacing the ships out in Q2, but what this means I don't know.

In general they should be able to load 2 ships a week, if they are making cars only for outside and the capacity is 3k or so. This is what they did in Q1. In Q2 they are loading about one in 5 days. So are they making cars for abroad 3 days a week ?

 

[gluu]

Nobody has a good estimate of deliveries. Tesla quarters are too back-loaded. My guesses for Model 3 were:

35k - US (10/10/15 April/May/June)
20k - Europe (Q2 has a head start over Q1, but ramp is slower)
10k - China (total guess)​

That's 65k, plus maybe 15k S/X. They seem to have a problem with Raven S/X, but they have plenty of pre-Raven inventory so 15k is still a low bar. With some heroics they could be 70k+ Model 3 and 20k S/X, which would meet their guidance.

It wasn't clear to me why you added 30k shipped cars to your 14k/month of delivered production and 10k+ of Q1 carryover.

My read of the Tesla Carriers spreadsheet is that cars were mostly sent overseas in the first 2 months of production, then March was essentially only domestic production and delivery. This means in Q2 Month 1, deliveries outside of the 10k in transit went to North America, given that cars on ships seem to take about a month to get delivered, so the only possibility for manufacture and delivery in the same month would be in North America. This increase in domestic deliveries for month 1 is also a product of unwinding delivery hell. My guess is that April and May will see similar deliveries of 14k with a potential spike of SR+ deliveries in June due to the tax credit cliff and limited cell supply. This is why I estimate 14k a month deliveries to North America, and 30k to foreign countries assuming all the ships can get delivered.

 

[EVNow]

My read of the Tesla Carriers spreadsheet is that cars were mostly sent overseas in the first 2 months of production, then March was essentially only domestic production and delivery. This means in Q2 Month 1, deliveries outside of the 10k in transit went to North America, given that cars on ships seem to take about a month to get delivered, so the only possibility for manufacture and delivery in the same month would be in North America. This increase in domestic deliveries for month 1 is also a product of unwinding delivery hell. My guess is that April and May will see similar deliveries of 14k with a potential spike of SR+ deliveries in June due to the tax credit cliff and limited cell supply. This is why I estimate 14k a month deliveries to North America, and 30k to foreign countries assuming all the ships can get delivered.

To unwind the wave - Tesla needs to send about 15 to 17 ships of 3k each to reach 45k to 50k of shipments or one every 6 days - until GF3 (and then GF4) come online. Selling about the same in NA will given them about 100k deliveries a quarter or 400k a year.

With a lag of 1 month in delivery, that means about 15k cars will always be in transit every quarter. In the US if the delivery takes 2 weeks, that would be some 7k. So, 22k cars in transit every quarter end. It is not bad compared to 33k in transit + inventory + floor cars we had at the end of Q1. To totally smooth out the delivery waves - they need to carry 30k or so in in inventory + transit. Good thing is this will not eat up any more cash in the coming quarters since they paid for it in Q1 (and we are all paying for it in SP fall).

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Nobody has a good estimate of deliveries. Tesla quarters are too back-loaded. My guesses for Model 3 were:

35k - US (10/10/15 April/May/June)
20k - Europe (Q2 has a head start over Q1, but ramp is slower)
10k - China (total guess)​

That's 65k, plus maybe 15k S/X. They seem to have a problem with Raven S/X, but they have plenty of pre-Raven inventory so 15k is still a low bar. With some heroics they could be 70k+ Model 3 and 20k S/X, which would meet their guidance.

It wasn't clear to me why you added 30k shipped cars to your 14k/month of delivered production and 10k+ of Q1 carryover.

You think they ship 20k M3's worldwide in all of Q2 via 10 ships? Granted that in transit 10k was probably 7-8kM3 and 2-3k S/X but that still implies a fairly low car to carrier ratio especially if you are going with 15k S/X.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Eh, actually if they do 500 S/X a ship that’s 5,000 that probably fits the 15k S/X bill.

For a note: Adam Jonas’s leaked call today he stated his estimates are 82k but he hears “whispers” of in the 70’s to high 70’s.

 

[heltok]

If we plug in the supposed leaked email numbers are we then looking at Q2 profits?

 

[Remus]

If we plug in the supposed leaked email numbers are we then looking at Q2 profits?

Guidance was 90k with gaap loss. And even with the email a "safer" estimate would be in the 80s. So probably still loss.

But this and the California number makes me very optimistic about the long term demand, because Toyota first invaded California too, and went on to dominate the u.s. car market. It took Toyota two decades. Looks like I don't have to wait that long for Tesla to do the similar

 

[gluu]

The stock is currently pricing a repeat of Q1. Looks like a good time to load up...

 

[Doggydogworld]

You think they ship 20k M3's worldwide in all of Q2 via 10 ships? Granted that in transit 10k was probably 7-8kM3 and 2-3k S/X but that still implies a fairly low car to carrier ratio especially if you are going with 15k S/X.

Last quarter 16 ships carried ~25k Model 3s that got delivered in Q1 plus another ~5k that spilled into Q2. This quarter it looks like 11 or 12 ships will make the cutoff. Loading times have been similar, implying (12/16) * 30k = 22.5k Model 3s. If none of those spill over into Q3, that's 22.5k + 5k = 27.5k overseas Model 3s delivered in Q2. My estimate was 30k.

I see Q1's 10.6k in transit as being 4k US Model 3s (mostly SR+) and 5k overseas split more or less evenly between China and Europe. The other 1.6k are S/X (several hundred fewer than the prior quarter).

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Last quarter 16 ships carried ~25k Model 3s that got delivered in Q1 plus another ~5k that spilled into Q2. This quarter it looks like 11 or 12 ships will make the cutoff. Loading times have been similar, implying (12/16) * 30k = 22.5k Model 3s. If none of those spill over into Q3, that's 22.5k + 5k = 27.5k overseas Model 3s delivered in Q2. My estimate was 30k.

I see Q1's 10.6k in transit as being 4k US Model 3s (mostly SR+) and 5k overseas split more or less evenly between China and Europe. The other 1.6k are S/X (several hundred fewer than the prior quarter).

Gotcha, whats your source for 30k overseas deliveries and what was your avg per carrier?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Gotcha, whats your source for 30k overseas deliveries and what was your avg per carrier?

Q1 Model 3s were 20k Europe and 5k+ China. Spillover into Q2 was 2.5k +/- for each Europe and China. So those 16 boats carried roughly 30k Model 3s. Source is the thread on this forum that shows European deliveries through April and a link posted on the Investor Roundtable thread the other day to a twitter bear with China numbers through April. I don't have the links to either handy, but someone else here might.

 

[kbM3]

Interesting, I had read that differently. Operating cash flow excluding capex should be positive...

However, now that I look it up, Capex is not part of operating cashflow, so no reason to call it out unless they mean it like you are saying.

“Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2“

Yep — guidance is very clear: OCF-CapEx > 0

Aka free cash flow positive

Could have been clearer:

OCF > CapEx.

 

[EVNow]

Could have been clearer:

OCF > CapEx.

I wonder - how much flexibility do they have in booking capex. Do they have to recognize it when the shipment lands or when they get the bill or ...

Basically can they adjust the capex in a quarter depending on how much cash they got that quarter - knowing capex is ordered months in advance.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I wonder - how much flexibility do they have in booking capex. Do they have to recognize it when the shipment lands or when they get the bill or ...

Basically can they adjust the capex in a quarter depending on how much cash they got that quarter - knowing capex is ordered months in advance.

Capex is a cash flow line item, so it only appears when they finally pay the supplier. That can be a few quarters after construction occurs or machinery arrives.

 

[EVNow]

Capex is a cash flow line item, so it only appears when they finally pay the supplier. That can be a few quarters after construction occurs or machinery arrives.

Oh yes, until then it just sits in payables.

So, Tesla probably has the flexibility to adjust their payment to match cash flow. Ofcourse if they have a really bad quarter like in Q1, they won't care. If they are close (like may be in Q2) - they can adjust the timing of the payment. I guess they can also negotiate the terms of payment.

What I'm getting to is, only over a longer period we can determine whether Tesla is Op cash > Capex.

 

[neroden]

Seriously, do you really think ship loading time is really proportional to number of cars? I am pretty sure they could load more cars in the same number of days and just be more relaxed about it. All other evidence is more cars per ship Q2 than Q1 including a direct statement about it on the conference call.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Seriously, do you really think ship loading time is really proportional to number of cars? I am pretty sure they could load more cars in the same number of days and just be more relaxed about it. All other evidence is more cars per ship Q2 than Q1 including a direct statement about it on the conference call.

They load as fast as permitted under local regulations and union rules so they can get back on the water. They don't make money sitting in port.

 

[EVNow]

Here is my latest iteration of rough p&l. With an optimistic 92k deliveries, I get a non-GAAP EPS of $0.06 and revenue of $6.5B.

Yahoo finance avg analyst estimate today is : $-0.44 EPS (non-GAAP) and revenue of $6.22B.

The main difference from last time is that I've increased the deliveries, but also in Q4 assuming no GF3 deliveries and yet 117k deliveries. That pushes ASP up from earlier. Also I've made some changes @Doggydogworld suggested. Pushed up Energy generation & storage as well as services.

 

[endofpetroleum]

Can someone explain how TSLA intends to handle its convertible notes? $900mi convertible paid out as cash this year, $600mi due in Nov, $1.3bi due early '21, $1bi due early '22.

A quick analysis of how these obligations - assuming they are paid out in cash - will impact the company?