Near-future quarterly financial projections

[mongo]

did that note come out today? no rating/price target change though?

@larmor street estimates i took from yahoo.

Seems that way, the quote I included links back to a fuller summary by @mulder1231

 

[brian45011]

Jonas thinks you may be correct :

5. Compared with MS 3Q forecast, the 8,192 total delivery beat (all models) could drive $600mm of incremental revenue and at least $200mm of incremental pretax, potentially making Tesla OP Positive on a GAAP basis for 3Q vs. our forecast of nearly $100mm US GAAP OP loss.

OP is before Other Income(Expense), Interest, Taxes and NCI lay-off. Incremental OP of $200mm on incremental Revenue of $600mm implies an incremental 33.3 GM% and static OpEx.

 

[mongo]

OP is before Other Income(Expense), Interest, Taxes and NCI lay-off. Incremental OP of $200mm on incremental Revenue of $600mm implies an incremental 33.3 GM% and static OpEx.

Thanks for that. If there were 200 million additional pre-tax OP, would that flow down to EPS with a 79% tax rate correction factor? If so, that is almost $1 per share.

 

[brian45011]

Puzzled why the sp is not taking off...

Perhaps because there was no mention of positive earnings and cash flow in the 8k?

The share price is like tide levels--constantly up & down.

 

[luvb2b]

Perhaps because there was no mention of positive earnings and cash flow in the 8k?

The share price is like tide levels--constantly up & down.

something else interesting, the average revenue estimate on the street is 6.1b, with the high at 6.94b. my projections are right around 7b. now it could be that i should come down on % of s/x leased and that is causing me to skew high. but even going back to the last 2 quarters (11% of s/x leased) i would still come to ~6.9b revenue.

that's a super-wide gap as well vs. expectations. i gotta believe we see this correct as models get updated, it's too easy to adjust for extra units to miss revenue by a lot.

 

[moneyburner1]

here's my latest update with all new information. don't understand why there is large amounts of whitespace, i tried editing but couldn't fix.

there are upside to my cash forecasts due to in-transit drawdown. 1b free cash flow is not out of the question and there's even a shot at possibly 4b in cash by end of 18q4 - that would match tesla's highest ever cash balance.

i'm still taking a bit of a break but will try to check comments. thanks.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

dio

dpo

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,470[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,190[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,660 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 62,000 [/TD2][TD2] 55,840 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.07 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 59.00 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,682,120[/TD2][TD2]2,675,275[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,596,000[/TD2][TD2]3,294,560[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]197,807[/TD2][TD2]201,398[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,575,927 [/TD2][TD2] 6,271,233 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]140,450[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]231,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,299,027 [/TD2][TD2] 6,942,683 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,979,706[/TD2][TD2]1,975,105[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,804,880[/TD2][TD2]2,767,430[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]122,641[/TD2][TD2]124,867[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,907,227 [/TD2][TD2] 4,867,402 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]147,473[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]161,700[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,645,046 [/TD2][TD2] 5,571,573 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,653,981 [/TD2][TD2] 1,371,110 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]29.4%[/TD2][TD2]29.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]24.2%[/TD2][TD2]21.1%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]350,000[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]620,000[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,185,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,175,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 468,981 [/TD2][TD2] 196,110 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 302,981 [/TD2][TD2] 30,110 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 282,982 [/TD2][TD2] 10,111 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 332,983 [/TD2][TD2] 60,112 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.82 [/TD2][TD2] 0.33 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]332,983[/TD2][TD2]60,112[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]540,983[/TD2][TD2]260,112[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.96 [/TD2][TD2] 1.43 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 80.00 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2][TD2] 79.31 [/TD2] [TD2] 77.00 [/TD2][TD2] 81.00 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2][TD2] 80.47 [/TD2] [TD2]3,531,562[/TD2][TD2]2,957,585[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,199,840[/TD2][TD2]1,141,263[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,454,173[/TD2][TD2]4,884,667[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]374,443[/TD2][TD2]371,101[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 9,710,018 [/TD2][TD2] 9,484,616 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,212,861[/TD2][TD2]2,252,225[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,333,264[/TD2][TD2]6,336,631[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,933,736[/TD2][TD2]11,404,808[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]420,841[/TD2][TD2]427,841[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 31,745,582 [/TD2][TD2] 31,040,982 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,763,491[/TD2][TD2]4,945,725[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,370,000[/TD2][TD2]2,291,250[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]531,087[/TD2][TD2]540,534[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,829,577 [/TD2][TD2] 10,942,509 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]774,501[/TD2][TD2]788,279[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,258,750[/TD2][TD2]3,172,500[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 24,515,448 [/TD2][TD2] 24,775,907 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,927,191 [/TD2][TD2] 4,962,132 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]282,982[/TD2][TD2]10,111[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]465,416[/TD2][TD2]444,788[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]48,847[/TD2][TD2]33,246[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-58,577[/TD2][TD2]-571,389[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]469,858[/TD2][TD2]-1,530,202[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]-153,484[/TD2][TD2]2,341,503[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]22,871[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,428,041 [/TD2][TD2] 1,105,929 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-600,000[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -660,000 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 573,978 [/TD2][TD2] 721,161 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,957,585 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,531,562 [/TD2][TD2] 2,957,585 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

Great Job your estimate.

One Questions:
Why increases the common equity by more than 1.055.000 ?


Kind regards

 

[oneday]

Great Job your estimate.

One Questions:
Why increases the common equity by more than 1.055.000 ?


Kind regards

It’s just assets - liabilities. Assets are increasing faster than liabilities.

 

[defc0n]

Exited at 5.3k with no other mention of a record week.
Given the cash control, and cell production constraints it's very unlikely that Tesla would have lined up suppliers in time to average 6k.

The 3 additional battery cell lines from Panasonic might not be operational quickly enough to be able to do a 6k average for the quarter?

 

[SPadival]

The 3 additional battery cell lines from Panasonic might not be operational quickly enough to be able to do a 6k average for the quarter?

Pana just said they will deliver it faster than estimated earlier. And then there is this !!

● Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

 

[Smokey4141]

here's my latest update with all new information. don't understand why there is large amounts of whitespace, i tried editing but couldn't fix.

there are upside to my cash forecasts due to in-transit drawdown. 1b free cash flow is not out of the question and there's even a shot at possibly 4b in cash by end of 18q4 - that would match tesla's highest ever cash balance.

i'm still taking a bit of a break but will try to check comments. thanks.
===========================================================================

luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!

Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...

ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)

People's Grain on Twitter

People's Grain on Twitter


But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...

But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...

 

[NikeWings]

Hi @luvb2b I get different Q1 and Q2 dpo and dio results when deriving straight off the Qs.
I use a rolling quarterly AP average and net the quarterly change in inventory. What's your calc?

For example, 6/30 dpo:
[(6/30AP + 3/31AP)/2] / [(6/30COGS + 6/30Inv - 3/31Inv)/91]

 

[kakamora]

Great modeling. QQ does the gross margin for model 3 seem a bit high. I thought they were trying to get to 16% at some point in the qtr but now for the whole qrt.

Headwinds to company est:
-not at 6k per week
-Logistics nightmare

Tailwinds to company est:
-dual motor %
-M3P %

Maybe I missed part of the thread where this was discussed.

 

[Smokey4141]

luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!

Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...

ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)

People's Grain on Twitter

People's Grain on Twitter


But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...

But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...

 

[generalenthu]

@luvb2b When your buy the car, there's a destination and doc fee of $1200. This is not part of the ASP I suppose. Is that right?

 

[brian45011]

@luvb2b When your buy the car, there's a destination and doc fee of $1200. This is not part of the ASP I suppose. Is that right?

I suspect the any over/under on the destination/document fee vs cost for performing those services would be charged to SG&A.

I concur with Smokey that SG&A has to scale up with a large increase in sales/deliveries, but at an appreciably lower percentage increase than the increase in Revenues. I also believe SG&A will have to absorb some if not all the legal and consulting costs related to the Aug 7 et seq controversies.

My assumptions (with same delivery numbers) now yield a net loss of $128.8 MM vs Luvb2b's net profit of $80.1MM

 

[generalenthu]

I suspect the any over/under on the destination/document fee vs cost for performing those services would be charged to SG&A.

I concur with Smokey that SG&A has to scale up with a large increase in sales/deliveries, but at an appreciably lower percentage increase than the increase in Revenues. I also believe SG&A will have to absorb some if not all the legal and consulting costs related to the Aug 7 et seq controversies.

My assumptions now yield a net loss of $128.8 MM vs Luvb2b's net profit of $80.1MM

Elon did say they had to execute well on Sunday to be sure. So we can say they turned a mild GAAP profit based on that.

Rough math: 10 million in SG&A scale up turns to 500 more sales / logistics people, at an all in cost of 80k per annum. Aternately, that's $120 more per car delivered. Given that, if luv is underestimating sg&a, that's not by more than 50 million at best.

 

[brian45011]

Elon did say they had to execute well on Sunday to be sure. So we can say they turned a mild GAAP profit based on that.

Rough math: 10 million in SG&A scale up turns to 500 more sales / logistics people, at an all in cost of 80k per annum. Aternately, that's $120 more per car delivered. Given that, if luv is underestimating sg&a, that's not by more than 50 million at best.

My estimate for SG&A is $65 million higher than his (but I do not include the $20 million fine in Q3.)

 

[moneyburner1]

It’s just assets - liabilities. Assets are increasing faster than liabilities.

Thanks for your Feedback !
Mathematically you are Right.

But from an Accounting perspective the common equity is Changed by the P&L result (+60.112) , changes in common stock (I am not Aware of) and other comprehensive loss / income that is normally not significant.

Therefore from my Point of view I do not understand the increase of common equity.


Would be great to get some insights here.

Cheers

 

[Thekiwi]

luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!

Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...

ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)

People's Grain on Twitter

People's Grain on Twitter


But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...

But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...

Can’t really take that Twitter thread seriously with conclusions like this mixed in:

“19/ Furthermore, the OEMs should smell blood in the water. It doesn't take a rocket scientist and a Deepak to realize that if they don't purchase any Tesla credits for a while, they will inflict mega pain on Musk and Co. In fact, it could push them to bankruptcy.”

Anyone who thinks Tesla is relying on ZEV credits to stay solvent is deluded.

 

[NateB]

luvb2b, really great work on your forecast for Q3/Q4...
I appreciate how much work was involved in setting it up, and then continuing to update it...
As you may notice, this is my first post, and yes, your post made me sign up! So well done!!

Anyway, the reason I'm posting is, there are two things I'm concerned about on your projections...
The first one, ZEV credits, is a small one, but the SG&A, I think there's no way that can be even close...

ZEV credits:
I think those will turn out to be $0...
I could be wrong, but there was an interesting thread - two threads, actually - on Twitter regarding these...
Anyway, he sold me, but at the very least, worth a read even if you choose to disagree..
Hoping you can read these threads - (don't know if you have a Twitter account)

People's Grain on Twitter

People's Grain on Twitter


But next, on the SG&A, I just don't see how it's even close to being possible those could be barely up from Q2, when sales of the M3 have literally tripled from Q2...
If Tesla used a standard dealership model, maybe that could work - the dealership would be on the hook for those costs...

But with Tesla, they absorb ALL of the costs a normal dealership would pay for itself...
The increased costs of prepping, detailing, paperwork time, servicing of new and just delivered cars, shipping, rentals/loaners, etc...
To say nothing of the additional people at the Service Centers required to handle all that...
All of that is charged to Tesla, and most of it should more or less ramp up roughly equal with the number of cars sold...
There may be some scale effects in a few of those areas, but, there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged from the Q2 number...
Anyway, something to consider... I don't have any idea what the number truly will be, and I'm sure you know more than I do about this, but....just seemed a little (more than a little) out of whack...
Thanks for your time...

Thanks for your post! You made me think more about SG&A growth. Luckily we have a precedent to evaluate the assertion that "there's no possible way sales tripled and SG&A barely budged..." Somehow, in Q3 2016, Tesla was able to increase deliveries to 24,800 from 14,400 in Q2 2016 with minimal increase in SG&A (from $321 mil to $337 mil). This was a factor of 1.7 increase in deliveries (as opposed to the 2x increase this year, counting all models). In Q3 2016, Tesla was pulling out all of the stops to show a single-quarter profit (as they are this quarter), so they almost certainly did some one-time shuffling of expenses that was not sustainable. But it is not "impossible" to offset increased paperwork and detailing expenses with a combination of cost-cutting measures (9% layoffs at the end of Q2) and probably some accounting tricks. So I think that it is possible that SG&A stayed close to flat this quarter, although in this case we should pay real attention to Q4 SG&A, to assess the relative importance one-time vs. sustainable cost savings.

On the other hand, another data point we have is that SG&A increased by $65 mil in Q2 2018, while deliveries increased by 10,800. Very naively interpreted, this would imply a marginal SG&A increase of $6,000 per car, which, if applied this quarter, would imply an extra $258 mil SG&A on 42,700 extra deliveries. If this were true, combined with reduced ZEV credits, Tesla would probably not even be operating profit positive. Elon bizarrely seems to have hinted that Tesla did achieve "OPP" by posting this video on twitter on Oct 1. So my guess is that SG&A increase was less than $100 mil, but that Tesla did not achieve positive net income this quarter. At least one of the attempted one-time accounting "rearrangements" that might have pushed Tesla to net profitability this quarter (recognition of additional "enhanced autopilot" revenue from the last ~2 years, due to release of fully automated lane changes) did not quite get done in time, but should help Q4.