EVNow
Well-Known Member
Don't they need to do some assembly in Zeebrugge - I thought they did that for tax reasons. Or is that only for S/X ?
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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- elon is an ass
No idea on their methodology, my estimate per ship is in my post above. Think it’s 660 model 3 avg for 6 ships and 775 for 5 ships.
I feel very confident in 7k, the only way they get 8k now is a large bump (respectively for China) in S/X orders in June and some model 3’s from the last boat.
June S/X is hard to predict but given past trends over 1.5 years:
the final month of delivers for S/X has been at the least 2x the 2nd month of deliveries and at times 3.5 times the 2nd month.
If we just do 2x we get 1000 S and 1500X for June which seems very reasonable given a new model bump.
The Trans-Pacific trade is heavily eastbound - to the US - exports in the opposite direction are not able to fill a ship - in my experience - containerships came in 100% full and left 70% full plus empties. I doubt if the auto RO-RO trade is different. So owners would rather load a return cargo of vehicles on every vessel going westbound rather than have any return empty. I doubt if the rates are different for one thousand or two thousand vehicles per vessel since it is the loading and unloading that generates wharfage fees at both ends...
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Total loading time for the 8 boats to China was about 2/3rds of the 8 boats to Europe. Since we know they sent ~24k Model 3s to Europe in Q1, that implies ~16k to China. They only delivered 7,748 of those in Q1, leaving 8k+ available on 4/1. Some (1500?) were in transit with waiting customers who took delivery in early April, but that leaves almost 7k of new inventory to be sold gradually during Q2.
This is just a theory, but it fits:
1) Tesla had good reason to ship a lot of unsold Model 3s to China in Q1 ahead of the possible 4/1 tariff hike
2) Of 12k unsold Model 3s on 3/31 almost none were in Europe and there's no reason for more than 5k in the US
3) Ample inventory on 4/1 helps explain Q2's short loading times
If true we can't use ship count to predict China Q2 the way we can in Europe.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've been thinking about the loading time & # of cars. The assumption has been Loading time = (load time per car)*(number of cars).
Seems to me it should be Loading time = fixed setup time + (load time per car)*(number of cars).
No idea what the fixed time is and how big that is compared to the actual loading time. Depending on this the estimates would be mostly accurate or materially inaccurate.
So we could have a discrepancy here but the numbers I saw through April were a total of 10,072 with 2300 of that being sold in April. (Matches roughly with your 7.7 sold in Q1)
2300 sold in the month of April with your number of in transit as 1500 means 800 were sold organically in April. That’s like 1 month of Canada numbers without some tax credit drop off, compared to a 3 month average of 3,357 which seems really low to me bull or bear (75% drop)
That being said if Tesla had 7k inventory left, plus what docks with ships with your higher boat average, with S/X sales that could be 13-14k units to sell in China.
That would give them a possible (perfect world) high end of
12
23
66
*1 edit forgot Japan
I feel like if Musk had a chance at 102 he would be throwing the kitchen sink at it...
Which is why we have this bonus structure?
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here is an interesting article I found (from 2012). @Doggydogworld @neroden @Spacemanspliff
Around the World With 5,500 Cars
Good question would be, why are EU ships taking so long to leave. Apparently takes just a working day to unload 3,000 cars @ 400/hour. I expect loading to take roughly the same amount time.
Around the World With 5,500 Cars
Good question would be, why are EU ships taking so long to leave. Apparently takes just a working day to unload 3,000 cars @ 400/hour. I expect loading to take roughly the same amount time.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I just put 1500 in transit as an example number, but yeah that would imply 800 of April's 2300 Model 3 sales were from inventory.
My main point is boat-counting works OK for European Model 3 estimates and we know 63-66k for North America, but China is a black box as always. Also, the pre-Raven S/X inventory mystery adds uncertainty. If it's concentrated in US it's included in the 63-66k. If most are in Europe a blowout sale could drive sales well above our 22-23k estimate. If most are in China, though, they can't do a blow-out sale. Tesla is a premium brand in the west, but it's a super-premium brand in China and discounting a super-premium brand does more harm than good.
I mean they had Chinese carriers dock late in Q1 so 1500 doesn’t seem unreasonable for in transit maybe even light.
I just can’t imagine a 800 model 3 sales month in China.
They cut prices on S/X in Q1 when they were struggling to move units and we heard about it from consumers in China, so maybe they don’t want to do that again? But I think Elon would cut prices anyways for this push and it would make more sense to consumers if they knew this was in response to make way for a new model.
You are right S/X/3 inventory location is a big mystery. Would inventory sales show up on Insideevs or the EU registrations?
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes to EU registrations. No idea to Insidevs - I'll have to contact statik for that. I'll shoot him an email.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
That would only be April orders they could match to inventory and deliver by end of April.
Maybe, but price response changes a lot as you move upscale. I see this with houses - if you drop the price 10% below market in a mid-range tract you'll get tons of traffic and offers, but at the high end it'll be seen as damaged goods/undesirable. That's why high end carmakers hide discounts in leases and/or have dealers quietly offer deep discounts to long-standing customers. Reducing MSRP or running "$15k below factory invoice" ads is counter-productive at the high end where people care more about status than utility.
Mostly no. You might be able to track the VINs from Norway's daily data. But their S/X deliveries seem to ramp halfway through each quarter when ships start to arrive. That implies most sales are new production. Not the 75Ds, of course, but those are now a small portion of the total.
With the inventory theory only matching 10% of their supposed 7-8k in Chinese inventory seems like a stretch.
So we basically have no way to know how many inventory S/X they are moving. Interesting.
@Doggydogworld
@EVNow had some good thoughts regarding COGS earlier this week when it was being discussed, wanted to hear your thoughts.
Added delivery costs to the COGS:
In reference to your difference in COGS between LR/AWD/P and SR+
He's right and you yourself said Tesla doesn't use super premium materials. I just don't get how this car is not 8k+ cheaper to build.
@EVNow had some good thoughts regarding COGS earlier this week when it was being discussed, wanted to hear your thoughts.
Added delivery costs to the COGS:
In reference to your difference in COGS between LR/AWD/P and SR+
He's right and you yourself said Tesla doesn't use super premium materials. I just don't get how this car is not 8k+ cheaper to build.
Not always true at the top of the market where the prices are so high that it takes a long time to make a sale (a price drop is seen as "must sell now" in that case), but I know what you're talking about; it probably would apply to the S/X price range.
