Near-future quarterly financial projections

[EVNow]

Yeah, it's not 3, but I like a little up side
Wasn't the hit on Q1 non-raven inventory was already taken in Q1 with the price adjustment expense?

Not about inventory revaluation - but actual selling price of pre-Raven S&X with discounts would bring down ASP (and margin).

 

[Doggydogworld]

Not about inventory revaluation - but actual selling price of pre-Raven S&X with discounts would bring down ASP (and margin).

Exactly. You only write down inventory if the estimated sale price is below your carrying cost - i.e. COGS. You don't write down a bunch of 75k COGS pre-Ravens in Q1 just because they're suddenly worth 80k instead of 100k. You sell them in Q2 at 80k and 6% gross margin....

If you estimate they're only worth 70k, then you write them down 5k each in Q1. And you sell them in Q2 at zero gross margin. There is no scenario in which you write them down in Q1 and sell them at 25% gross margin in Q2. Unless you cheat.

 

[mongo]

Exactly. You only write down inventory if the estimated sale price is below your carrying cost - i.e. COGS. You don't write down a bunch of 75k COGS pre-Ravens in Q1 just because they're suddenly worth 80k instead of 100k. You sell them in Q2 at 80k and 6% gross margin....

If you estimate they're only worth 70k, then you write them down 5k each in Q1. And you sell them in Q2 at zero gross margin. There is no scenario in which you write them down in Q1 and sell them at 25% gross margin in Q2. Unless you cheat.

I think I see, the GM calculations includes the Q1 offset. However, the Gross/Net profit for Q2 will be improved by the amount of the previous offset, correct?

 

[EVNow]

I think I see, the GM calculations includes the Q1 offset. However, the Gross/Net profit for Q2 will be improved by the amount of the previous offset, correct?

Yes, the write downs were only for price reductions in Q1. The discounting due to refreshed S/X will be reflected in lower ASP & margin in Q2.

 

[mongo]

Yes, the write downs were only for price reductions in Q1. The discounting due to refreshed S/X will be reflected in lower ASP & margin in Q2.

I assumed the Q1 write downs covered all non-raven inventory. If that is correct, the ASP and margin will take a hit in Q2 (since they track the adjustment), but the loss in profit (depending on accuracy of the adjustment) has already occurred.

Thanks for the education!

 

[EVNow]

I assumed the Q1 write downs covered all non-raven inventory. If that is correct, the ASP and margin will take a hit in Q2 (since they track the adjustment), but the loss in profit (depending on accuracy of the adjustment) has already occurred.

Thanks for the education!

Just to be clear - this is how I see it, using arbitrary numbers.

Pre-Q1 : $80k each (COGS), Price $100k
End Q1 : $75k each after write down of $5k because of price adjustment to $75k
Sold in Q2 : $80k
So, margin 7% instead of 20%. Also ASP is $80k, instead of $100k. Basically profit of $5k in Q2, instead of $20k.

 

[CalX]

I'm not so worried about production, but instead on leasing and the effect it will have on q2 profit. I haven't seen much info on the model 3 leasing take rate. Any ideas?

 

[EVNow]

I'm not so worried about production, but instead on leasing and the effect it will have on q2 profit. I haven't seen much info on the model 3 leasing take rate. Any ideas?

I expect low rate of leasing - 5% or so. You hardly hear anyone leasing in the forums. Not giving the option to buy at the end makes it unattractive. People like having that option. All this for 3. S&X have had about 20% leasing for a while.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

@Doggydogworld

I saw what you posted regarding Anton’s numbers. What number do you not agree with? Seemed pretty reasonable to me.

The only upside I could see is they pump out more than 1k a day for the final 6 days in NA.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yes, the write downs were only for price reductions in Q1. The discounting due to refreshed S/X will be reflected in lower ASP & margin in Q2.

I thought the write down after the price drop in Q1 was done because Tesla has guaranteed the trade-in price on cars that were sold with financial lease. On my S P100DL they guarantee a 49k trade in after 5 years (150k kilometers). That was not a risk when it sold for 165k (I paid a lot less by the way), but it is now that a new one sells for 110k. Tesla will probably not be able to move it for 49k after the trade-in, so had to take a write down on those guaranteed trade-in contracts.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Troy Teslike on Twitter

View attachment 423819
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And Troy is generally making conservative estimates:

• His 19.7k estimate for Europe is in line with what @Doggydogworld and @schonelucht are expecting based on the Q2 current data and historic trends.

With Q2 nearly complete, it looks like just over 8000 Model 3 in NO/NL/SP, down ~15% from Q1. S/X should be just over 1400, up ~40% from Q1.

If these numbers apply across Europe (always a big if), that projects to ~16,850 Model 3 and ~4,450 S/X, or 21.3k total vehicles. With a more favorable mix than Q1.

With the arrival of the Model 3 in the UK and Ireland, I’d expect final European numbers closer to 22k.

 

[EVNow]

I thought the write down after the price drop in Q1 was done because Tesla has guaranteed the trade-in price on cars that were sold with financial lease. On my S P100DL they guarantee a 49k trade in after 5 years (150k kilometers). That was not a risk when it sold for 165k (I paid a lot less by the way), but it is now that a new one sells for 110k. Tesla will probably not be able to move it for 49k after the trade-in, so had to take a write down on those guaranteed trade-in contracts.

There are two different things.

In Q1 they had an inventory write down of 81M. This is what I'm talking about.

Automotive sales with resale value guarantee was -390M. This is what you are talking about.

 

[EVNow]

With Q2 nearly complete, it looks like just over 8000 Model 3 in NO/NL/SP, down ~15% from Q1. S/X should be just over 1400, up ~40% from Q1.

If these numbers apply across Europe (always a big if), that projects to ~16,850 Model 3 and ~4,450 S/X, or 21.3k total vehicles. With a more favorable mix than Q1.

With the arrival of the Model 3 in the UK and Ireland, I’d expect final European numbers closer to 22k.

The S/X ratio in Q1 was 32/68. In Q2 it is 45/55. So, S is selling slightly better in Q2 than Q1. Infact most of the growth from Q1 is in S sales.

Wonder whether we see similarly better S sales in US.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The S/X ration in Q1 was 32/68. In Q2 it is 45/55. So, S is selling slightly better in Q2 than Q1. Infact most of the growth from Q1 is in S sales.

Wonder whether we see similarly better S sales in US.

Yup. Model S deliveries currently up 95% over Q1. Model X deliveries currently up 12% over Q1. Combined, S/X deliveries up 39% over Q1. The remainder of this weekend’s deliveries should nudge those numbers, but not in any meaningful way. Europe may be less religious than the US, but they seem to take their Sundays off more seriously.

InsideEVs has S/X deliveries in the US up 41% through the first 2 months of the quarter. Grain of salt & all because they’re just estimates, but if worldwide growth of 40% happens, we’ll end up at about 16.9k S/X deliveries. Big improvement over Q1, but still well shy of 2017-2018 numbers.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The S/X ratio in Q1 was 32/68. In Q2 it is 45/55. So, S is selling slightly better in Q2 than Q1. Infact most of the growth from Q1 is in S sales.

Yeah, I suspect the introduction of the Raven helped re-differentiate Model S from a long range Model 3. Both S & X took a hit in Q1, but S took a much bigger hit. This leads me to think the sales drop was caused more by the intro of the 3 than by competition like the e-tron or the I-pace, though I’m sure those played a role as well.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I saw what you posted regarding Anton’s numbers. What number do you not agree with? Seemed pretty reasonable to me.

The only upside I could see is they pump out more than 1k a day for the final 6 days in NA.

I thought his June Europe Model 3 numbers were too ~2k high, though if the rest of the continent ramped like the Netherlands the last couple of days I could be off.

I also thought his 54k North America was too low - as you note the delivery rate almost certainly spiked well above 1k/day the final week.

Yeah, I suspect the introduction of the Raven helped re-differentiate Model S from a long range Model 3. Both S & X took a hit in Q1, but S took a much bigger hit. This leads me to think the sales drop was caused more by the intro of the 3 than by competition like the e-tron or the I-pace, though I’m sure those played a role as well.

Q2 European S/X sales are almost entirely pre-Raven, IMHO. They priced their inventory to move, so the ratio of S/X in inventory dictated the sales ratio.

US wasn't any more S-heavy in May than in the past. In fact, the most S-heavy month was March, just before Raven was announced. Another possible inventory clearance situation.[/user]

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Q2 European S/X sales are almost entirely pre-Raven, IMHO. They priced their inventory to move, so the ratio of S/X in inventory dictated the sales ratio.

That seems to be true, at least in the Norway data. Do we have that level of insight into the sales of any other European country (type? VIN?)? Model X still seems to have outsold Model S this quarter, so inventory ratio can’t be the only explanation, but it’s probably the main factor.

So, the introduction of the Raven mostly stimulated European S/X sales by justifying deeper discounts on existing inventory, then. Stimulated Q2 sales (I’ll take it), but still undetermined whether the Raven drives S/X demand going forward.

 

[Doggydogworld]

That seems to be true, at least in the Norway data. Do we have that level of insight into the sales of any other European country (type? VIN?)? Model X still seems to have outsold Model S this quarter, so inventory ratio can’t be the only explanation, but it’s probably the main factor.

So, the introduction of the Raven mostly stimulated European S/X sales by justifying deeper discounts on existing inventory, then. Stimulated Q2 sales (I’ll take it), but still undetermined whether the Raven drives S/X demand going forward.

I can't find any pre- vs. post-Raven into elsewhere in Europe. I tried to get clues from the inventory trackers, but they're all over the map. Sweden showed almost no S/X inventory all month on Teslastats but sold 209/86 in June. I doubt those were all Ravens, but can't say for sure.

Big month and quarter in Italy, I think they got a new incentive. On the flip side, Model 3 was much lower in June than March in Austria. Also in Sweden, but that's a bit of a special case. Then again, they all look like special cases. It's really hard to see a consistent trend.

 

[luvb2b]

hello friends. i haven't been spending so much time on tesla. just wanted to post a quick update with what i feel are fairly optimistic delivery numbers. i wanted to have something ready for when real numbers are out. it's not great so feel free to share your comments. thanks.

one majorly important change for those not familiar with my past work - model 3 leasing has been introduced. this means not all model 3 units will flow into the revenue line.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

est cash gm for model 3

lease 3s % veh

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time revenue

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

maxwell/grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto ex 3 gm

auto gaap gm

auto lease gm

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

mxwl/grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] Jun-19 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-19 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2] [TD2]9,100[/TD2][TD2]6,100[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2] [TD2] 18,100 [/TD2][TD2] 12,100 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2] [TD2] 73,500 [/TD2][TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2] [TD2] 75,000 [/TD2][TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2] [TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]32.2%[/TD2][TD2]33.3%[/TD2][TD2]34.5%[/TD2] [TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2][TD2] - [/TD2] [TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.10 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2] [TD2] 98.00 [/TD2][TD2] 102.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2] [TD2] 53.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.75 [/TD2][TD2] 55.75 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2] [TD2]1,594,264[/TD2][TD2]1,105,680[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2] [TD2]3,505,950[/TD2][TD2]2,888,649[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2] [TD2]225,000[/TD2][TD2]215,120[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-501,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,412[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2] [TD2] 5,340,214 [/TD2][TD2] 3,723,861 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2] [TD2]133,950[/TD2][TD2]129,094[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2] [TD2]235,125[/TD2][TD2]195,567[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2] [TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]535,000[/TD2][TD2]492,942[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2] [TD2] 6,256,289 [/TD2][TD2] 4,541,464 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2] [TD2]1,291,354[/TD2][TD2]945,624[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2] [TD2]2,815,278[/TD2][TD2]2,319,585[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2] [TD2]130,500[/TD2][TD2]117,092[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2] [TD2] 4,237,132 [/TD2][TD2] 2,973,301 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2] [TD2]160,740[/TD2][TD2]159,456[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2] [TD2]189,276[/TD2][TD2]157,431[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2] [TD2]27,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]695,500[/TD2][TD2]674,533[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2] [TD2] 5,309,647 [/TD2][TD2] 3,975,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2] [TD2] 946,642 [/TD2][TD2] 565,743 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2] [TD2]19.0%[/TD2][TD2]14.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.2%[/TD2][TD2]29.0%[/TD2] [TD2]20.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.2%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2][TD2]25.8%[/TD2] [TD2]42.0%[/TD2][TD2]45.6%[/TD2][TD2]48.9%[/TD2][TD2]45.9%[/TD2] [TD2]22.5%[/TD2][TD2]21.7%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2] [TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2] [TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]19.7%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2] [TD2]20.4%[/TD2][TD2]19.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2] [TD2]-20.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2] [TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]19.5%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-125.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-30.0%[/TD2][TD2]-36.8%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]295,174[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2] [TD2]575,000[/TD2][TD2]573,929[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]43,471[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2] [TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,075,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,087,574 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2] [TD2] -128,358 [/TD2][TD2] -521,831 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2] [TD2]17,000[/TD2][TD2]8,762[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2] [TD2]-115,000[/TD2][TD2]-104,453[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]25,750[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -253,608 [/TD2][TD2] -644,772 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2] [TD2]23,000[/TD2][TD2]22,873[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2] [TD2] -276,608 [/TD2][TD2] -667,645 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]34,490[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2] [TD2] -301,608 [/TD2][TD2] -702,135 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2] [TD2]176,000[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2] [TD2]176,000[/TD2][TD2]172,989[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2] [TD2] -1.71 [/TD2][TD2] -4.06 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2] [TD2]-301,608[/TD2][TD2]-702,135[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2] [TD2]210,000[/TD2][TD2]208,378[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-91,608[/TD2][TD2]-493,757[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2] [TD2] -0.52 [/TD2][TD2] -2.85 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2]

 

[heltok]

Welcome back!