Hi everybody. My production estimate for Q1 2020 is 105,563 units. Here is my calculation:
• Elon said they produced the 1 millionth car at the end of 9 March 2020. I'm calculating 919,572 units produced by the end of Q4 2019. That means Q1 production including 9 March should be 1,000,000-919,572= 80,428 units.
• Based on reports, I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai including 9 March was 5,884 units (2,625 in Jan + 3,898 in Feb + 1,986 units in nine days of March= 5,884 units).
• Therefore production in Fremont by the end of 9 March should be around 80,428-5,884= 74,544 units.
• Tesla said Fremont would stop production at the end of 23 March. Therefore if Fremont production was 74,544 units in 69 days, in 83 days it should be 74,544*83/69= 89,669 units.
• I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai will be 15,894 units. Therefore my total production estimate for Q1 is 89,669+15,894= 105,563 units.
Monthly production estimate for Shanghai:
March breakdown:
• Elon said they produced the 1 millionth car at the end of 9 March 2020. I'm calculating 919,572 units produced by the end of Q4 2019. That means Q1 production including 9 March should be 1,000,000-919,572= 80,428 units.
• Based on reports, I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai including 9 March was 5,884 units (2,625 in Jan + 3,898 in Feb + 1,986 units in nine days of March= 5,884 units).
• Therefore production in Fremont by the end of 9 March should be around 80,428-5,884= 74,544 units.
• Tesla said Fremont would stop production at the end of 23 March. Therefore if Fremont production was 74,544 units in 69 days, in 83 days it should be 74,544*83/69= 89,669 units.
• I estimate that Q1 production in Shanghai will be 15,894 units. Therefore my total production estimate for Q1 is 89,669+15,894= 105,563 units.
Monthly production estimate for Shanghai:
- Jan 2020: 2,625 units
- Feb 2020: 3,898
- Mar 2020: 9,371
- Total: 15,894 units
March breakdown:
- week 1: 1500 units
- week 2: 2000
- week 3: 2400
- week 4: 2700
- 30-31 March: 771
- Total: 9,371 units