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Teslas european pages still show that model Y production is supposed to begin early 2021.
I doubt they're going to import any model Y:s.

Then we need an alternate explanation for the jump in Model Y delivery time.

Perhaps they are stopping the line for a few weeks in October to retool for the stamped back end. That would mean Y sales would not increase much in Q4.

The best argument against a model Y surge to Europe is that Tesla doesn't have the additional transport capacity. They want to sell more cars, after all, not just replace sending model 3 to Europe with Model Y. Could China be sending ~10K Model 3 to Europe Q4, thereby allowing Fremont to send Y with no increase in units shipped from the U.S.?

Also, would it be beneficial to only send a few thousand Y's to Europe? Would that Osbone Model 3 sales? Or would it encourage model 3 sales by allow European consumers to see both cars? Certainly there are potential buyers waiting to see both cars. I think many will find that the Y is considerably bigger in the real world than in photos with the 3. It's not a 3 with a somewhat raised roof and a hatch.

It doesn't feel right to me that Tesla will sell many more MY in the U.S. this December than they did in September. But I have no way of knowing if Tesla is seeing a significant acceleration of MY sales since August.

I also think that Tesla really wants to recapture that $3000 discount on the Model Y. Their price point strategy from the M3 SR on up seemed right to me.
 
Then we need an alternate explanation for the jump in Model Y delivery time.

Perhaps they are stopping the line for a few weeks in October to retool for the stamped back end. That would mean Y sales would not increase much in Q4.

The best argument against a model Y surge to Europe is that Tesla doesn't have the additional transport capacity. They want to sell more cars, after all, not just replace sending model 3 to Europe with Model Y. Could China be sending ~10K Model 3 to Europe Q4, thereby allowing Fremont to send Y with no increase in units shipped from the U.S.?

Also, would it be beneficial to only send a few thousand Y's to Europe? Would that Osbone Model 3 sales? Or would it encourage model 3 sales by allow European consumers to see both cars? Certainly there are potential buyers waiting to see both cars. I think many will find that the Y is considerably bigger in the real world than in photos with the 3. It's not a 3 with a somewhat raised roof and a hatch.

It doesn't feel right to me that Tesla will sell many more MY in the U.S. this December than they did in September. But I have no way of knowing if Tesla is seeing a significant acceleration of MY sales since August.

I also think that Tesla really wants to recapture that $3000 discount on the Model Y. Their price point strategy from the M3 SR on up seemed right to me.

Whilst I would be very happy to see Y deliveries start in Europe in Q4 (as I would like to buy one) I think it very unlikely and there are no indications I can see other than the jump in US delivery time you refer to. A more likely explanation is that the focus in Fremont will be on model 3 production to be sent to Europe and hence the ratio between 3 and Y will toggle back towards the 3 in the early part of Q3. I believe there is a limit on capacity (stamping or paint) that is shared by 3/Y. In Q2 this was 8k/week. It is targeted to increase to 10k/week in H2 but I am not sure if this has already happened or the ramp is still under way.

If there are some changes to be made to the Y production line it would make sense to do this at the start of the quarter. I am not sure if GA5 is now in operation. Does anyone have any information on this?
 
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I'll make book that Model Y for Europe probably will be initially exported from Shanghai in late 2021, then will be Berlin-based thereafter. If Berlin continues buildout as quickly as it is doing now it'a plausible there may be German production in late 2021. The China sourcing will only happen as a stopgap, if it happens at all. Remember that one key constraint is those giant forms for aluminum pieces, of which there seem to be two in the German and Chinese Model Y. Construction for those facilities is clearly underway at both GF's.
 
some thoughts on Y.

1) There is plenty of demand from other global destinations outside EU where Tesla could ship Fremont Y's if it wished.
2) There is also China, where performance model Ys could still be sent even after local Y production starts, so wouldn't be unusual to start deliveries ahead of MiC Y (unless it has been confirmed that performance Y will be MiC already?)
3) It's possible early quarter Y production may be devoted to the imminent LR RWD Y? If battery supply is tight, and Model Y production capacity has ramped higher, perhaps it even makes sense for a limited edition Mid-Range Y.
 
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The Y timeline could just be restocking and shipping to the east coast and Canada. Shipping to New York and Florida is 4-6 weeks and parts of Canada would be similar. Train infrastructure is really that bad, that it can take as long to get to New York as Zeebrudge. If they have orders waiting on the east coast, it could take a few weeks to get stock restored. regarding lines, I think there are now or soon will be 3 lines for the Y in Fremont. The right hand drive line can now be dedicated to the Y, GA 4.5 and the original Y line. There’s a good chance Fremont Y will equal Fremont 3 production in Q4.
We may need a thread for the topic. Maybe Troy could do something in his site.
 
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One other element about the Model Y delivery timelines is that timelines are another element that Tesla can use to shape demand without price concessions. Setting a long delivery timeline can discourage Q3 buyers from ordering a Y if they need immediate delivery and send that demand to the 3. Once Q4 starts they can quickly reduce those timelines again.
 
The Y timeline could just be restocking and shipping to the east coast and Canada. Shipping to New York and Florida is 4-6 weeks and parts of Canada would be similar. Train infrastructure is really that bad, that it can take as long to get to New York as Zeebrudge. If they have orders waiting on the east coast, it could take a few weeks to get stock restored. regarding lines, I think there are now or soon will be 3 lines for the Y in Fremont. The right hand drive line can now be dedicated to the Y, GA 4.5 and the original Y line. There’s a good chance Fremont Y will equal Fremont 3 production in Q4.
We may need a thread for the topic. Maybe Troy could do something in his site.

Could be. But I will repetitively say that this means that Tesla is confident that they can sell far more Y's in the U.S. in December than they did in Sept. They would have made that call probably in July for planning purposes. Perhaps some intrepid Tesla follower will see if the cars being built later this week have an eCall button. Since Tesla changed the U.S. rear turn signal to yellow I'm not aware of another external indicator of an EU Y other than the emergency button.

If Tesla is planning to to sell 40K U.S. Ys then it seems that post pandemic demand will be very high. My biggest medium to long term concern is that world demand won't support three factories building 3 and Y. But if they can sell 15K in in December during this U.S. crapstorm then three factories may not be enough.
 
Could be. But I will repetitively say that this means that Tesla is confident that they can sell far more Y's in the U.S. in December than they did in Sept. They would have made that call probably in July for planning purposes. Perhaps some intrepid Tesla follower will see if the cars being built later this week have an eCall button. Since Tesla changed the U.S. rear turn signal to yellow I'm not aware of another external indicator of an EU Y other than the emergency button.

If Tesla is planning to to sell 40K U.S. Ys then it seems that post pandemic demand will be very high. My biggest medium to long term concern is that world demand won't support three factories building 3 and Y. But if they can sell 15K in in December during this U.S. crapstorm then three factories may not be enough.

Nov/Dec are far bigger sales months than Sept. I'm not sure why its so hard to think that demand for the Y supports the current timelines fo expected delivery
 
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If Tesla is planning to to sell 40K U.S. Ys then it seems that post pandemic demand will be very high. My biggest medium to long term concern is that world demand won't support three factories building 3 and Y. But if they can sell 15K in in December during this U.S. crapstorm then three factories may not be enough.
I think when Tesla starts to sell the Model Y RWD the demand will increase a lot more and those factories will be pretty busy. Also Giga Berlin will help with demand due to probable price drop (no tariffs).
 
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I think when Tesla starts to sell the Model Y RWD the demand will increase a lot more and those factories will be pretty busy. Also Giga Berlin will help with demand due to probable price drop (no tariffs).

I looked back and on July 12 Musk said that they would release the MY RWD "in a couple of months". So that would certainly be a demand driver for the U.S.. That addition doesn't explain the jump in U.S. MY delivery time that is typical of early quarter production for export. But it does explain how Tesla will accelerate demand.
 
Copying a portion of my post from the main investment thread. This is relevant for Shanghai for Q4.

CEO of Snow Bull Capital (small hedge fund that focuses on green and high technology) shared the following on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1311761299366387721

In China, MIC SR+ Model 3s are already rolling off the line with CATL’s LFP batteries. Interestingly, the new batteries weigh the same as LG Chem’s batteries in MIC LR RWD Model 3s.

In terms of MIC Model Y, the Fremont Model Y assembly engineering team has been at GF3 during the factory ‘shut down’ last week building NEW Model Y lines (not retooling existing Model 3 lines, as many thought).

The Model Y lines are going to be nearly identical to the most recent Model Y line at Fremont, at first. That won't take long.

Also, retooling for the new Kuka robots has already begun at GF3. The same German engineering team that programmed the Kukas at Fremont (and GF1 & GF2) worked alongside the Tesla Model Y assembly engineering team from Fremont during last week’s factory shut down.

In addition to the German Kuka team, the Japanese Fanuc team was also ‘retooling’ (programming) the new Fanuc robots at GF3 at the end of August. We believe this was primarily on the Model 3 lines.

We expect this to inevitably increase production efficiency as it did when similar lines were retooled with the same Kuka and Fanuc robots at Fremont, increasing production efficiency by 55-60%.

So, with GF3 being more automated than Fremont, the addition of the new robots to the already-highly automated Model 3 lines could get production up to >800/day (+60%).

This, and the addition of a third shift DURING the Chinese national holiday starting last night (when most thought it would be completely shut down for the next week) increases our Q4 estimates for Model 3 production out of Shanghai to 62,855.

One of the indicators we will be looking for in Q4 is weaker #Model3 demand in China due to the impressive domestic EV competition, namely BYD Han and Xiaopeng P7.

Such an indication of decreased demand would be if GF3 begins exporting MIC Model 3s to South Korea in Q4. If domestic demand for MIC Model 3s is REALLY weak, we could see retooling of Model 3 lines for RHD in Q4.

We don’t expect Tesla to retool GF3 Model 3 lines for RHD until Q1 2021. We think the RHD retooling will likely take place during the Chinese New Year, as initial RHD retooling took 8 days in Fremont.

A note on RHD retooling: once a line is initially retooled, switching between LHD and RHD becomes really easy (~3 hrs), as the robots are already programmed.
 
Copying a portion of my post from the main investment thread. This is relevant for Shanghai for Q4.

CEO of Snow Bull Capital (small hedge fund that focuses on green and high technology) shared the following on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1311761299366387721

In China, MIC SR+ Model 3s are already rolling off the line with CATL’s LFP batteries. Interestingly, the new batteries weigh the same as LG Chem’s batteries in MIC LR RWD Model 3s.

In terms of MIC Model Y, the Fremont Model Y assembly engineering team has been at GF3 during the factory ‘shut down’ last week building NEW Model Y lines (not retooling existing Model 3 lines, as many thought).

The Model Y lines are going to be nearly identical to the most recent Model Y line at Fremont, at first. That won't take long.

Also, retooling for the new Kuka robots has already begun at GF3. The same German engineering team that programmed the Kukas at Fremont (and GF1 & GF2) worked alongside the Tesla Model Y assembly engineering team from Fremont during last week’s factory shut down.

In addition to the German Kuka team, the Japanese Fanuc team was also ‘retooling’ (programming) the new Fanuc robots at GF3 at the end of August. We believe this was primarily on the Model 3 lines.

We expect this to inevitably increase production efficiency as it did when similar lines were retooled with the same Kuka and Fanuc robots at Fremont, increasing production efficiency by 55-60%.

So, with GF3 being more automated than Fremont, the addition of the new robots to the already-highly automated Model 3 lines could get production up to >800/day (+60%).

This, and the addition of a third shift DURING the Chinese national holiday starting last night (when most thought it would be completely shut down for the next week) increases our Q4 estimates for Model 3 production out of Shanghai to 62,855.

One of the indicators we will be looking for in Q4 is weaker #Model3 demand in China due to the impressive domestic EV competition, namely BYD Han and Xiaopeng P7.

Such an indication of decreased demand would be if GF3 begins exporting MIC Model 3s to South Korea in Q4. If domestic demand for MIC Model 3s is REALLY weak, we could see retooling of Model 3 lines for RHD in Q4.

We don’t expect Tesla to retool GF3 Model 3 lines for RHD until Q1 2021. We think the RHD retooling will likely take place during the Chinese New Year, as initial RHD retooling took 8 days in Fremont.

A note on RHD retooling: once a line is initially retooled, switching between LHD and RHD becomes really easy (~3 hrs), as the robots are already programmed.

Interesting they posted this AFTER the news about the model 3 price cut in China. I think the odds of a big demand drop off for Model 3 in China during Q4 are much less likely than they were 24 hours ago.
 
Financial results will be strong. I will update in a day or two.
Here is a comparison of actual deliveries vs my estimate.

upload_2020-10-2_8-20-23.png
 
Galileo Russell is estimating > $0.5 billion earnings for Q3. At 3:12 mark spreadsheet, he did estimate the ASP per vehicle to be $52.2K/vehicle. A little on the high side. The Accountant did explain to me earlier as to why the ASP would be lower this quarter. I looked on Yahoo Finance today, and Q3 2020 expected EPS is $0.56/share x 931 million share = $0.52 billion. However, I think whatever The Accountant comes up with will be more accurate.

 
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The best argument against a model Y surge to Europe is that Tesla doesn't have the additional transport capacity. They want to sell more cars, after all, not just replace sending model 3 to Europe with Model Y.

I did identify train as a possible option to transport cars from China to Europe...

Regardless, shipping Model 3s to Europe from China would free up some transport capacity out of Fremont...

A more likely explanation is North American Model Y demand is strong, shipping to North America is easier and more profitable. As Model 3 is the only current (cheaper) option outside North America, that does help also help Model 3 demand..

My hunch is to hit the required Q4 production target for 500K deliveries, China has to play a big role. A lot of that has to be Model 3 sales in China and Chinese Model 3s shipped elsewhere... seems like Tesla is gearing up to do that.

For Fremont Model 3/Y There may be some bottleneck which Shanghai doesn't have, stamping, casting, cells, paint, work force. There is nothing explicit I can point to, it just doesn't take much to cap production rate increases...

In Shanghai it seems like the Model Y lines will not impact Model 3 production, my hunch is all necessary facilities are duplicated, and using some LFP cells in Model 3s frees up more 2170s for Model Y...

One way or another, Q4 production will be very interesting.. a very good result of out of Shanghai would not surprise me... a very good result out of Fremont would surprise me.
 
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For Fremont Model 3/Y There may be some bottleneck which Shanghai doesn't have, stamping, casting, cells, paint, work force. There is nothing explicit I can point to, it just doesn't take much to cap production rate increases...

In Shanghai it seems like the Model Y lines will not impact Model 3 production, my hunch is all necessary facilities are duplicated, and using some LFP cells in Model 3s frees up more 2170s for Model Y...

One way or another, Q4 production will be very interesting.. a very good result of out of Shanghai would not surprise me... a very good result out of Fremont would surprise me.

It will certainly be interesting to see if there are any updates to the installed annual capacity table in the Q3 ER.
 
His 52.2k/car is not even ASP, it's Rev/Car. It's a weird mashup of sales and leases that doesn't make analytical sense.

Analyst consensus number is non-GAAP, I think.
he did write: "(no cred)" next to the rev/car so it was automotive revenue without regulatory credit so I assumed it is ASP. I didn't think of sales and leases. If it is non-gaap, then I don't think Tesla wouldn't have any problem achieving this (or at least i hope so).