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Near-future quarterly financial projections

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Question on the financial results:

What is the "Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of effect of business combinations" line (p 25) that had a 1.5B shift (in the bad direction) from last quarter to this quarter and caused the "Net cash provided by operating activities" to decline QoQ?
It's basically working capital.
Note that - working capital would generally go up as deliveries increase.

I'd not worry about it even otherwise - it is a snapshot and there are better metrics to track the business like inventory in # of days of sales, receivables/payables ratios etc.
 
Note that - working capital would generally go up as deliveries increase.
Not for a carmaker. They tend to collect cash as soon as a car rolls off the line but not pay for the parts in that car for 30-60 days. It's a classic negative cash conversion cycle.

Tesla is a bit worse off because they don't collect cash until the final customer gets the car. But their screwball shipping cadence brings finished goods inventory to near-zero on four carefully chosen days per year. And even mid-quarter working capital bloat is becoming less of an issue as they localize production. It used to cause big problems, though. Inventory ballooned in early 2019 due to the end of the US tax credit and Model 3s getting stuck at the dock in Zeebrugge. Meanwhile Musk had decreed Tesla would repay in cash the bonds that matured on March 1st (I think) instead of refinancing them. This produced a severe cash crunch, driving the panicked "closing all stores" announcement in late February. Fortunately the finance team was able to scramble and get an asset-backed loan for the Euro inventory while the rest of the execs talked Elon off the store closing ledge. Then they raised a ton of new capital after "Autonomy Day" and avoided any more near-death experiences.
 
Then they raised a ton of new capital after "Autonomy Day" and avoided any more near-death experiences.
That was obviously the worst time for Tesla (and for me). I remember all those days.

Tesla was asked whether they want to raise capital after the good Q3 '18 ER - and the SP went to $370+. They said no - and had to raise capital at < $200 (IIRC). OfCourse all pre-split.
 
Question on the financial results:

What is the "Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of effect of business combinations" line (p 25) that had a 1.5B shift (in the bad direction) from last quarter to this quarter and caused the "Net cash provided by operating activities" to decline QoQ?
The 10Q is out and it's section line up with my previous total of $602MM. However, the slidedeck has a "net of effect of business combinations" modifier which may relate to this passage:
Recently issued accounting pronouncements not yet adopted

In October 2021, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued ASU No. 2021-08, Accounting for Contract Assets and Contract Liabilities from Contracts with Customers (Topic 805). This ASU requires an acquirer in a business combination to recognize and measure contract assets and contract liabilities (deferred revenue) from acquired contracts using the revenue recognition guidance in Topic 606. At the acquisition date, the acquirer applies the revenue model as if it had originated the acquired contracts. The ASU is effective for annual periods beginning after December 15, 2022, including interim periods within those fiscal years. Adoption of the ASU should be applied prospectively. Early adoption is also permitted, including adoption in an interim period. If early adopted, the amendments are applied retrospectively to all business combinations for which the acquisition date occurred during the fiscal year of adoption. This ASU is currently not expected to have a material impact on our consolidated financial statements.
SmartSelect_20220426-104922_Firefox.jpg
 
From the Tesla 2022-Q1 10Q :

Note 11 – Equity Incentive Plans

2018 CEO Performance Award

"In March 2018, our stockholders approved the Board of Directors’ grant of 101.3 million stock option awards, as adjusted to give effect to the five-for-one stock split effected in the form of a stock dividend in August 2020 (“Stock Split”), to our CEO (the “2018 CEO Performance Award”).​
"The 2018 CEO Performance Award consists of 12 vesting tranches with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of both operational milestones (performance conditions) and market conditions, assuming continued employment either as the CEO or as both Executive Chairman and Chief Product Officer and service through each vesting date.​
"Each of the 12 vesting tranches of the 2018 CEO Performance Award will vest upon certification by the Board of Directors that both​
(i) the market capitalization milestone for such tranche, which begins at $100.0 billion for the first tranche and increases by increments of $50.0 billion thereafter (based on both a six calendar month trailing average and a 30 calendar day trailing average, counting only trading days), has been achieved, and​
(ii) any one of the following eight operational milestones focused on total revenue or any one of the eight operational milestones focused on Adjusted EBITDA have been achieved for the four consecutive fiscal quarters on an annualized basis and subsequently reported by us in our consolidated financial statements filed with our Forms 10-Q and/or 10-K.​
"Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders before interest expense, provision (benefit) for income taxes, depreciation and amortization and stock-based compensation.​
"Upon vesting and exercise, including the payment of the exercise price of $70.01 per share, our CEO must hold shares that he acquires for five years post-exercise, other than a cashless exercise where shares are simultaneously sold to pay for the exercise price and any required tax withholding.​
"The achievement status of the operational milestones as of March 31, 2022 is provided below. Although an operational milestone is deemed achieved in the last quarter of the relevant annualized period, it may be certified only after the financial statements supporting its achievement have been filed with our Forms 10-Q and/or 10-K."​

Status of CEO operational milestones as of March 31, 2022.png


(1) Achieved in the first quarter of 2022 and expected to be certified following the filing of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

.../Con't in next comment.
 
... Con't from Comment #4,805 above:

"Stock-based compensation under the 2018 CEO Performance Award represents a non-cash expense and is recorded as a Selling, general, and administrative operating expense in our consolidated statements of operations. In each quarter since the grant of the 2018 CEO Performance Award, we have recognized expense, generally on a pro-rated basis, for only the number of tranches (up to the maximum of 12 tranches) that corresponds to the number of operational milestones that have been achieved or have been determined probable of being achieved in the future, in accordance with the following principles.​
"On the grant date, a Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine for each tranche (i) a fixed amount of expense for such tranche and (ii) the future time when the market capitalization milestone for such tranche was expected to be achieved, or its “expected market capitalization milestone achievement time.” Separately, based on a subjective assessment of our future financial performance, each quarter we determine whether it is probable that we will achieve each operational milestone that has not previously been achieved or deemed probable of achievement and if so, the future time when we expect to achieve that operational milestone, or its “expected operational milestone achievement time.” When we first determine that an operational milestone has become probable of being achieved, we allocate the entire expense for the related tranche over the number of quarters between the grant date and the then-applicable “expected full achievement time.” The “expected full achievement time” at any given time is the later of (i) the expected operational milestone achievement time (if the related operational milestone has not yet been achieved) and (ii) the expected market capitalization milestone achievement time (if the related market capitalization milestone had not yet been achieved). We immediately recognize a catch-up expense for all accumulated expense for the quarters from the grant date through the quarter in which the operational milestone was first deemed probable of being achieved. Each quarter thereafter, we recognize the prorated portion of the then-remaining expense for the tranche based on the number of quarters between such quarter and the then-applicable expected full achievement time, except that upon the achievement of both a market capitalization milestone and operational milestone with respect to a tranche, all remaining expense for that tranche is immediately recognized.​
"As a result, we have experienced significant catch-up expenses in quarters when one or more operational milestones were first determined to be probable of achievement. Historically, the expected market capitalization achievement times were generally later than the related expected operational milestone achievement times. Therefore, when market capitalization milestones were achieved earlier than originally forecasted due to periods of rapid stock price appreciation, we had higher catch-up expenses and the remaining expenses were being recognized over shorter periods of time at a higher per-quarter rate. All market capitalization milestones were achieved as of the second quarter of 2021.​
"During the three months ended March 31, 2022, three operational milestones were achieved and consequently, we recognized an aggregate catch-up expense of $11 million.​
"As of March 31, 2022, we had $17 million of total unrecognized stock-based compensation expense remaining, which will be recognized over a weighted-average period of 0.5 years. For the three months ended March 31, 2022 and 2021, we recorded stock-based compensation expense of $48 million and $299 million, respectively, related to the 2018 CEO Performance Award."​

Comments welcome.

Cheers!
 
The following language from the 10-Q leads me to think that the reason Tesla has not yet claimed its deferred tax assets / valuation allowance is because of ongoing audits by the U.S. IRS:

"We file income tax returns in the U.S. and various state and foreign jurisdictions. We are currently under examination by the IRS for the years 2015 to 2018. Additional tax years within the periods 2004 to 2014 and 2019 to 2021 remain subject to examination for federal income tax purposes. All net operating losses and tax credits generated to date are subject to adjustment for U.S. federal and state income tax purposes. Our returns for 2004 and subsequent tax years remain subject to examination in U.S. state and foreign jurisdictions.​
"Given the uncertainty in timing and outcome of our tax examinations, an estimate of the range of the reasonably possible change in gross unrecognized tax benefits within twelve months cannot be made at this time."​

I'm not sure I follow all the implications here. What do you think? (comments welcome)

Cheers!
 
The following language from the 10-Q leads me to think that the reason Tesla has not yet claimed its deferred tax assets / valuation allowance is because of ongoing audits by the U.S. IRS:

"We file income tax returns in the U.S. and various state and foreign jurisdictions. We are currently under examination by the IRS for the years 2015 to 2018. Additional tax years within the periods 2004 to 2014 and 2019 to 2021 remain subject to examination for federal income tax purposes. All net operating losses and tax credits generated to date are subject to adjustment for U.S. federal and state income tax purposes. Our returns for 2004 and subsequent tax years remain subject to examination in U.S. state and foreign jurisdictions.​
"Given the uncertainty in timing and outcome of our tax examinations, an estimate of the range of the reasonably possible change in gross unrecognized tax benefits within twelve months cannot be made at this time."​

I'm not sure I follow all the implications here. What do you think? (comments welcome)

Cheers!
That was started in the 2020 10k. It's in the context of amounts held in anticipation of US taxes which impacts the total unrecognized tax benefit.
Context from that filing:
The U.S. Tax Court issued a decision in Altera Corp v. Commissioner related to the treatment of stock-based compensation expense in a cost-sharing arrangement. On June 7, 2019, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals (Ninth Circuit) reversed the Tax Court decision and upheld the validity of Treas. Reg. Section 1.482-7A(d)(2), requiring stock-based compensation costs be included in the costs shared under a cost sharing agreement. On June 22, 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court denied to review the Ninth Circuit decision. Prior to the U.S. Supreme Court’s denial, Tesla has already included stock-based compensation in cost sharing allocation agreement and hence retains its position.
The preceding paragraph sets the stage of it being in context of deferred tax asset.

There are transactions that occur during the ordinary course of business for which the ultimate tax determination is uncertain. As of March 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, the aggregate balances of our gross unrecognized tax benefits were $562 million and $531 million, respectively, of which $493 million and $473 million, respectively, would not give rise to changes in our effective tax rate since these tax benefits would increase a deferred tax asset that is currently fully offset by a valuation allowance.

As to use of the deffered tax asset, I believe they must first work though their US net loss carry over in order to have any tax that they would then offset .
Last year's 10K

As of December 31, 2021, we recorded a valuation allowance of $9.07 billion for the portion of the deferred tax asset that we do not expect to be realized. The valuation allowance on our net deferred taxes increased by $6.14 billion, $974 million, and $150 million during the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, respectively. The changes in valuation allowance are primarily due to additional U.S. deferred tax assets and liabilities incurred in the respective year. We have $417 million of deferred tax assets in foreign jurisdictions, which management believes are more-likely-than-not to be fully realized given the expectation of future earnings in these jurisdictions. We did not have any material releases of valuation allowance for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019. We continue to monitor the realizability of the U.S. deferred tax assets taking into account multiple factors. In completing this assessment, we considered both objective and subjective factors. These factors included, but were not limited to, a history of losses in prior years, excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, future reversal of existing temporary differences and tax planning strategies. After evaluating all available evidence, we intend to continue maintaining a full valuation allowance on our U.S. deferred tax assets until there is sufficient evidence to support the reversal of all or some portion of these allowances. Given the improvement in our operating results and depending on the amount of stock-based compensation tax deductions available in the future, we may release the valuation allowance associated with the U.S. deferred tax assets in the next few years. Release of all, or a portion, of the valuation allowance would result in the recognition of certain deferred tax assets and a decrease to income tax expense for the period the release is recorded.

The reconciliation of taxes at the federal statutory rate to our provision for income taxes for the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019 was as follows (in millions):

Year Ended December 31,
2021 2020 2019
Tax at statutory federal rate $1,332 $242 $(139)
State tax, net of federal benefit 6 4 5
Nondeductible executive compensations 201 184 62
Other nondeductible expenses 67 52 32
Excess tax benefits related to stock based
compensation
(7,123) (666) (7)
Foreign income rate differential (668) 33 189
U.S. tax credits (328) (181) (107)
Noncontrolling interests and redeemable
noncontrolling interests adjustment
11 5 (29)
GILTI inclusion 1,008 133
Convertible debt (4)
Unrecognized tax benefits 28 1 17
Change in valuation allowance 6,165 485 91
Provision for income taxes $699 $292 $110


As of December 31, 2021, we had $31.2 billion of federal and $21.6 billion of state net operating loss carry-forwards available to offset future taxable income, some of which, if not utilized, will begin to expire in 2022 for federal and state purposes. A portion of these losses were generated by SolarCity and some of the companies we acquired, and therefore are subject to change of control provisions, which limit the amount of acquired tax attributes that can be utilized in a given tax year. We do not expect the change of control limitations to significantly impact our ability to utilize these attributes.

Our 2021 net operating loss included corporate income tax deductions related to our CEO’s exercise of the remaining stock options from the 2012 CEO Performance Award, which resulted in a $23.45 billion tax deduction. Such increase in net operating loss is included in our deferred income tax assets, offset by a valuation allowance. Section 162(m) of the Internal Revenue Code was amended for deductibility of executive compensation for stock grants after 2017. Therefore, we are not expecting substantial corporate income tax deductions from our CEO's subsequent option exercises.

As of December 31, 2021, we had research and development tax credits of $738 million and $584 million for federal and state income tax purposes, respectively. If not utilized, the federal research and development tax credits will expire in various amounts beginning in 2024. However, the state of California research and development tax credits can be carried forward indefinitely. In addition, we have other general business tax credits of $186 million for federal income tax purposes, which will not begin to significantly expire until 2033.

Federal and state laws can impose substantial restrictions on the utilization of net operating loss and tax credit carry-forwards in the event of an “ownership change,” as defined in Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code. We have determined that no significant limitation would be placed on the utilization of our net operating loss and tax credit carry-forwards due to prior ownership changes.
 
Not for a carmaker. They tend to collect cash as soon as a car rolls off the line but not pay for the parts in that car for 30-60 days. It's a classic negative cash conversion cycle.

Tesla is a bit worse off because they don't collect cash until the final customer gets the car. But their screwball shipping cadence brings finished goods inventory to near-zero on four carefully chosen days per year. And even mid-quarter working capital bloat is becoming less of an issue as they localize production. It used to cause big problems, though. Inventory ballooned in early 2019 due to the end of the US tax credit and Model 3s getting stuck at the dock in Zeebrugge. Meanwhile Musk had decreed Tesla would repay in cash the bonds that matured on March 1st (I think) instead of refinancing them. This produced a severe cash crunch, driving the panicked "closing all stores" announcement in late February. Fortunately the finance team was able to scramble and get an asset-backed loan for the Euro inventory while the rest of the execs talked Elon off the store closing ledge. Then they raised a ton of new capital after "Autonomy Day" and avoided any more near-death experiences.
For GM:
“Revenue for new vehicle sales is recognized at the time of delivery when customers obtain control of the vehicles or when the vehicles are transferred to the dealers which generally occurs when the vehicles are released to the carrier responsible for transporting to the dealers.”
Looking at that does give a surface implication that GM would recognize sakes sooner than Tesla. That does NOT reflect typical cash conversion cycle, however. GM and all the others except Tesla recognize a sale when title is transferred to a dealer or distributor. They do NOT get cash then, since there are deferred payment terms as well as dealer floor planning support, direct through a captive, or through other financing sources that often have support from OEM.
Tesla, by recognizing a sale on end user delivery with payment in full, has a much faster cash conversion cycle because thus far they have had little inventory. That is why Tesla has a huge Free Cash Flow that no major OEM approaches.

in short, your post is backwards.Any if the several accountants and analysts her can elaborate if you still do not understand.
 
For GM:
“Revenue for new vehicle sales is recognized at the time of delivery when customers obtain control of the vehicles or when the vehicles are transferred to the dealers which generally occurs when the vehicles are released to the carrier responsible for transporting to the dealers.”
Looking at that does give a surface implication that GM would recognize sakes sooner than Tesla. That does NOT reflect typical cash conversion cycle, however. GM and all the others except Tesla recognize a sale when title is transferred to a dealer or distributor. They do NOT get cash then, since there are deferred payment terms as well as dealer floor planning support, direct through a captive, or through other financing sources that often have support from OEM.
Tesla, by recognizing a sale on end user delivery with payment in full, has a much faster cash conversion cycle because thus far they have had little inventory. That is why Tesla has a huge Free Cash Flow that no major OEM approaches.

in short, your post is backwards.Any if the several accountants and analysts her can elaborate if you still do not understand.
Dealers pay for cars 3 ways:

1) Cash on hand - Cash goes from dealer to GM when the car rolls off the assembly line onto the truck
2) Floorplan from dealer's bank* - cash goes from dealer's bank to GM when the car rolls onto the truck
3) Floorplan from GM Finance - Cash goes from bank to GM Finance to GM when the car rolls onto the truck

In all three cases GM gets the cash when they load the car on the truck. In all three cases it is fresh cash available to fund GM operations. In almost all cases it comes from a bank, either directly from the dealer's bank or indirectly from one of the banks that fund GM Finance. GMF itself is a non-recourse subsidiary of GM. Its lenders cannot look to GM for repayment and its cash is not available to fund GM operations. It's essentially a shell which sits between big Wall Street banks and thousands of small dealers who might not be able to get similar terms on their own.

_________________________
*The term "bank" in this context broadly includes local banks all the way up to large Wall Street banks that set up securitizations and such.
 
Dealers pay for cars 3 ways:

1) Cash on hand - Cash goes from dealer to GM when the car rolls off the assembly line onto the truck
2) Floorplan from dealer's bank* - cash goes from dealer's bank to GM when the car rolls onto the truck
3) Floorplan from GM Finance - Cash goes from bank to GM Finance to GM when the car rolls onto the truck

In all three cases GM gets the cash when they load the car on the truck. In all three cases it is fresh cash available to fund GM operations. In almost all cases it comes from a bank, either directly from the dealer's bank or indirectly from one of the banks that fund GM Finance. GMF itself is a non-recourse subsidiary of GM. Its lenders cannot look to GM for repayment and its cash is not available to fund GM operations. It's essentially a shell which sits between big Wall Street banks and thousands of small dealers who might not be able to get similar terms on their own.

_________________________
*The term "bank" in this context broadly includes local banks all the way up to large Wall Street banks that set up securitizations and such.
Floorplan from GMF and from whatever other bank can and do differ. Your point is correct, except that GM divisions( regional or national) can and do subvene GMF. That subvention can be and is done in multiple ways (eg dealer, model, model year, brand). As a typical case such is done primarily, but not exclusively, through captives. Specific actions of subvention include, inter alia, interest rates, grace periods, credit risk and even the ubiquitous incentive rebates plus salesperson and/or F&I 'spiffs'.

Rather than go through the entire GM and other OEM distribution process rules I did indeed simplify all this. Factually, GM does recognize sales when title passes to the dealer or distributor. That is quite different from cash flow. Your post essentially equates the two, revenue recognition and cash flow.

Tesla, by contrast, recognizes a sale when the "end purchaser" completes the purchase. That simply makes it definitive that Tesla has 100% cash in hand prior to recognizing a sale.

These are quite different policies.
FWIW during my consulting career I spent several years designing loan, lease and floor plan programs for a major OEM. That work included several countries which have very different financial models. These comments apply to USA and, nearly all, Canada. In much of Europe the models differ in part because of taxation treatment for leased vehicles and different vehicle distribution practices and laws.

In context in Germany it is very common to recognize sales on vehicles sent to OEM owned/controlled dealers, so are functionally similar to US practices of sending unwanted vehicles to dealers, so recording sales, when the captive finance company is subvened to zero interest and varieties of post-sale rebates reduce the price.

To be very clear, clever GAAP allows these practices to exist. Quite distinct accounting categories help allow all this to conceal actual results. Rarely, very rarely, all this creates a scandal, which blows over quickly.
All of this is why this statement "...In all three cases it is fresh cash available to fund GM operations" is actually not true, but appears to be factual.

Full disclosure of all this is almost never voluntarily disclosed. However, Automotive News (paywall) does have both "customer Incentives" and "dealer incentives" categories for US that give clues on the usual publicly available elements. Those do include typical end-of-year incentives too.

All this is why, when an auto dealer offers to share 'dealer cost' with a customer, they share the number that typical OEM's record as revenue when the sell a vehicle to a dealer. It is very, very rare that that number resembles anything like actual dealer cost.

As a final note, that is part fo the reason Tesla resale values tend to be higher than are those fo other brands. The actual cost of a Tesla to a customer, is MSRP. For almost all others, it i
s very difficult to know. For that reason most auto dealers nominally 'lose money on new car sales'. The dealer financial statements are the ones that actually make all this machination clear, but only ion the dealer in question is NOT a public company. Those are another, quite more complex set of issues.
 
One thing that we have seen is that Ford and GM have great margins from their financing arms.
Tesla has not done much in this area but this may be about to change.
From their 10K:
We have outstanding direct leases and vehicles financed by us under loan arrangements . . . in certain countries in Asia and Europe, which we introduced during the third quarter of 2020.

Note: These "direct leases and vehicles" are treated as a sale (revenue recognized upon delivery of vehicle).

It looks as if Tesla is finally able to put its cash to good use. Their loan receivables have grown to 572m as of Q1 and I have computed that they are getting over 3% on these loans. As interest rates rise and the program grows, they should be taking in more financing income over time. I wonder why the program is only Asia and Europe at this time. Paging @jbcarioca for some potential insight.

1653499002123.png
 
Hoping we get the CPCA production figures for Shanghai by the end of this coming week. Until we have those I am not trying to make any predictions for Q2.

As I have not seen anything mentioned here or elsewhere online I am assuming that there is nothing similar to CPCA in Germany.

Rob Maurer is assuming that Texas is ramping at about half the speed of Berlin but I have not seen any sources to support that. If anyone knows of any sources please point me in the right direction.

Thanks :)
 
Hoping we get the CPCA production figures for Shanghai by the end of this coming week. Until we have those I am not trying to make any predictions for Q2.

As I have not seen anything mentioned here or elsewhere online I am assuming that there is nothing similar to CPCA in Germany.

Rob Maurer is assuming that Texas is ramping at about half the speed of Berlin but I have not seen any sources to support that. If anyone knows of any sources please point me in the right direction.

Thanks :)

We have car registrations in Germany published here:

European Registrations

April was 650 cars
May was 293 cars.

My guess is that the 650 in April were late deliveries from Q1 Shanghai.
The 293 in May could have been from Berlin.

The Norway and Sweden numbers for May were higher than I expected. I wonder if there is any way to find out if they are Made-In-Berlin.
 
We have car registrations in Germany published here:

European Registrations

April was 650 cars
May was 293 cars.

My guess is that the 650 in April were late deliveries from Q1 Shanghai.
The 293 in May could have been from Berlin.

The Norway and Sweden numbers for May were higher than I expected. I wonder if there is any way to find out if they are Made-In-Berlin.
Yes, the nice thing about the CPCA data is that it covers all vehicles from Shanghai both in terms of sold/exported and production. The European registrations will be a combination vehicles from Berlin and Shanghai (as you state) for several quarters.
 
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We have car registrations in Germany published here:

European Registrations

April was 650 cars
May was 293 cars.

My guess is that the 650 in April were late deliveries from Q1 Shanghai.
The 293 in May could have been from Berlin.

The Norway and Sweden numbers for May were higher than I expected. I wonder if there is any way to find out if they are Made-In-Berlin.

For Norway you can absolutely see where the cars are coming from.

Screenshot 2022-06-07 001834.png



For May 225 out of 236 cars were made in Germany. Those that were not came from inventory since no Shanghai shipment has arrived since Q1.
 
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For May 225 out of 236 cars were made in Germany. Those that were not came from inventory since no Shanghai shipment has arrived since Q1.

Tesla was allegedly targeting 1k/week production by the end of April out of Giga Berlin.

Based on May Europe sales, that hasn't materialized.

EDIT - Q2TD (as of 5/31), Tesla had sold just under 3k vehicles in all of Europe. Yes, normal caveats apply (3rd month of a quarter is always the highest), no ships from Shanghai, etc. It's still not very good.
 
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Tesla was allegedly targeting 1k/week production by the end of April out of Giga Berlin.

Based on May Europe sales, that hasn't materialized.

EDIT - Q2TD (as of 5/31), Tesla had sold just under 3k vehicles in all of Europe. Yes, normal caveats apply (3rd month of a quarter is always the highest), no ships from Shanghai, etc. It's still not very good.
Sounds dark and stormy.
 
Q2 2022 Forecast

Key Points:
  • My level of confidence is low with this forecast due to the Shanghai shutdown, Berlin/Austin ramps, bitcoin impairment & severance charges expected.
  • GAAP EPS at $1,67 ($1.99 excluding Bitcoin charge)
  • Non-GAAP EPS at $2.01 (2.34 excluding Bitcoin charge)
  • Despite rough Quarter, Gross Profit increases 50% and Operating Profit 60% vs PY
  • Even with the Shanghai shutdown, the costs of ramping 2 factories, Bitcoin impairment of $410m and Severance of $40m, I expect Tesla to generate $2.4B in Non-GAAP Earnings.

1656796554302.png
Note: Selling, General and Admin expenses only grow 1% as last year there was $176m in CEO Award comp and this qtr only $10m.​