Shanghai is contributing more in Q3 than Q2. Model 3 will have had less share in Q3 and the S, X and Y will increase share.
I haven't yet built a calculator with estimates broken out by site and model, so this is approximate. On average, I think 3&Y probably are in the vicinity of $35k COGS and $50k rev/car, and S&X probably $65k COGs and $108k rev/car. Model Y costs about $6k more than Model 3, and Model S&X cost about $60k more than Model 3.
- I have S&X share of mix declining 1% QoQ from 5.8% to 4.8%
- $60k * 1% = $0.6k downward effect on revenue
- $30k * 1% = $0.3k downward effect on cost
- Net change is $0.3k reduction in average gross profit per car
- I have Y share rising from a roughly estimated 57% share in Q2 to 60% in Q3
- $6k * 3% = $0.18k upward effect on revenue
- Costs about the same as Model 3
- Net effect is $0.18k increase in average gross profit per car
- Net effect from model shifts is about $0.1k reduction in average revenue per vehicle and $1.1k decrease in profit per vehicle
I guess Shanghai has about a $4k per vehicle gross profit advantage over Fremont, although I haven't looked into this in depth. Shanghai delivered 182174 in Q1, 112583 in Q2 and an estimated 211000 in Q3. If Shanghai has a ~$4k gross profit per car advantage vs Fremont and will increase from 117k out of 255 in Q2 to 211k out of 376k deliveries in Q3, then that's an increase of $4k * (211/376 - 117/255) = $0.4k profit per car.
Neglect Berlin and Austin because they're still a small portion.