Near term price action leading up to the Election

[dl003]

In light of the recent and upcoming macro events, I'm losing a bit of sleep when it comes to the near term prospect of TSLA. I'd love to get inputs of people with more experience than me.
As you know, despite the major indices's retreating into correction territory over the last week, TSLA has held up very well. However, I don't think anyone can deny that the buying pressure has been primarily the result of Battery Day anticipation. I've never been through a similar situation when a company has a major catalyst coming up in an unstable environment. I have no doubt Battery Day will be a huge success and I'm not asking for direct prediction. However, when a similar situation occured in the past, if it ever did, what happened after the event? What happened to the stock? Did the support get unwound and the stock begin to follow macros? Did the stock continue to outperform due to more capital inflow? Something else in between? We know that in March TSLA got severely punished even as it just came off a monster Q4. I'm not looking to sell anything, just trying to see if there's anything I can do for some near term protection.
Also, the macro sell-off has prevented TSLA from going into the technical overbought territory. Should it continue to assist after Battery Day?

 

[Intl Professor]

I can't answer your question but am waiting for a bounce upward to sell some, temporarily, to bracket around vagaries of the election, but not for the reason offered by our wealth manager. He was worried about FED reversing easy money course. I thought that silly because "the FED is the only game in town." Now it has announced an easy money course until 2023, if I remember correctly.

But whatever the election outcome, there will be turbulence in the "Force," er, "Farce," for some and for some time. Given Musk's vision HODL should prevail as a long term strategy. My expectation but not an advice.

 

[CyberGus]

"Buy on rumor, sell on news."

I think "Battery Day" expectation is already priced in. Unless Elon invented perpetual-motion, he'll have trouble exceeding the hype.

 

[replicant]

He was worried about FED reversing easy money course. I thought that silly because "the FED is the only game in town."

I'm worried about that game, now.

When the FED music stops, the effects will far outweigh the impact of elections or major moves in the auto/energy industries. Everyone is waiting for the mariachi band to pack up. The first whales moving (before 2023?) should force everyone to run for cover. IMO, this isn't discussed enough because TSLA can easily position itself to gain from extended lock-downs (the rest of the industry will suffer even more), change in consumer behavior (TSLA can change their product lineup faster than anyone), elections (both sides are realizing that they can gain from Tesla), market turmoils (thanks, free cash flow) etc… but geopolitical changes triggered by runaway monetary policies can jeopardize Tesla's future.

 

[anthonyj]

I can say with almost 100% certainty that the election will be contested for a while, and 10% chance California will secede in 2021. Thankfully TeraTexas will save Tesla's future. I'm not selling any shares but I am ready for a possible big discount in a couple months

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm worried about that game, now.

When the FED music stops, the effects will far outweigh the impact of elections or major moves in the auto/energy industries. Everyone is waiting for the mariachi band to pack up. The first whales moving (before 2023?) should force everyone to run for cover. IMO, this isn't discussed enough because TSLA can easily position itself to gain from extended lock-downs (the rest of the industry will suffer even more), change in consumer behavior (TSLA can change their product lineup faster than anyone), elections (both sides are realizing that they can gain from Tesla), market turmoils (thanks, free cash flow) etc… but geopolitical changes triggered by runaway monetary policies can jeopardize Tesla's future.

That's always a possibility but there should be warning signs and historically the FED has usually erred on the side of caution. If the Dems get their way stimulus will increase consumption at the bottom (higher minimum wage) and jobs for infrastucture. Reeps too, but bias toward tax cuts for rich which have not worked so far to increase growth in real economy. I'm always in favor of investment in real economy, not so sanguine about money economy. Happy feet are fine for dancing if that's all you want to do, but wadders are needed for tough times ahead. Musk knows this and so do we.

You don't have to be an enrolled agent to ask, "where's the beef?"

 

[replicant]

That's always a possibility but there should be warning signs and historically the FED has usually erred on the side of caution. If the Dems get their way stimulus will increase consumption at the bottom (higher minimum wage) and jobs for infrastucture. Reeps too, but bias toward tax cuts for rich which have not worked so far to increase growth in real economy. I'm always in favor of investment in real economy, not so sanguine about money economy. Happy feet are fine for dancing, but wadders are needed for tough times ahead. Musk knows this and so do we.

I'm not sure any of the two camps (D/R) is ready to take the drastic actions needed to reduce inequalities, which appears necessary to have a working society and recreate a middle class. Failing that, I believe the US will prefer to reset the whole game with inflation (post money flooding, already ongoing) rather than a full-on war (as it was usually done in the past, although that option isn't yet discarded).

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm not sure any of the two camps (D/R) is ready to take the drastic actions needed to reduce inequalities, which appears necessary to have a working society and recreate a middle class. Failing that, I believe the US will prefer to reset the whole game with inflation (post money flooding, already ongoing) rather than a full-on war (as it was usually done in the past, although that option isn't yet discarded).

Your countryman,Thomas Piketty, has shown the folly of trickle down and its handmaiden lower growth. We need an FDR now although he didn't know what he was doing and never primed the pump enough until WWII according to common lore. We know now but the politics are bad. Biden is no visionary and even Pilosi seems to be losing it. AOC understands, but has few heavy hitters in her corner.

We are cursed here by le capitalisme sauvage.

 

[Intl Professor]

As it stands, the Green New Deal is a wonderful package because its authors took care to consult with all stakeholders. "All" may be too strong. Mind flatulence there.

 

[Nate the Great]

When Trump won 2015 TSLA went down 20% from Dec 01 15 to Jan 04 16. Approximately SP 48 to SP 38.

I would assume the same is going to happen.

 

[ggr]

When Trump won 2015 TSLA went down 20% from Dec 01 15 to Jan 04 16. Approximately SP 48 to SP 38.

I would assume the same is going to happen.

Wow, you really know how to cherry pick data. Trump won the election on Nov 8, and was inaugurated on Jan 17. If you include all that data, TSLA actually went up quite a bit for most of November, and for the whole period was down less than 10%.

 

[Nate the Great]

Wow, you really know how to cherry pick data. Trump won the election on Nov 8, and was inaugurated on Jan 17. If you include all that data, TSLA actually went up quite a bit for most of November, and for the whole period was down less than 10%.

Wasn't attempting to cherry-pick. Are you stating that we will see 10%?

I also stated "approximate".