New 120D? - Also... 100D vs P100D?

[WarpedOne]

Increase the kWh or drop the total weight ... same result except that the second also means higher profits.
Model S has proved the point, played its role. Its battery might get bigger when/if necessary to sell at fat margin that is when there is finally a competition worth its name.

The proving is now wtih Model 3. Its battery will also not get bigger, it might even get smaller with further optimizations yielding higher efficiency. Its range will be +310 miles, with whatever capacity is necessary.

 

[WannabeOwner]

but have never used Ludicrous mode (don't like the idea that it is degrading the batteries)

Interesting point.

I've done the "Launch" a couple of times. Foot on brake, press and release accelerator, then press and hold accelerator to floor and release brake when ready.

Various things happen during the process with the car getting nervous! and settling on its haunches, but, apart from being at Santa Pod I'm not sure its worth it. At the lights it would hard to go through the palaver and do it in time for when the lights change.

I just stomp on the GO pedal when I'm ready.

So my question is: what's the difference (in terms of battery degation and "launch counts" (against the car) between "stomp on accelerator" [with Ludicrous mode selected] and do the full "I do NOT want my Mommy" Launch Process?

 

[Peteski]

I'm still undecided between the 100D and P100D lol!

I think the only way to decide this is to drive both for a considerable distance and see how often you are truly flooring either of them. I did that and came to the conclusion that I was rarely using the full 100D performance, never mind the P and this was in the "slower" X! Both are seriously quick cars in a straight line and I would only get the P if I really couldn't think of anything else to spend £300 a month on. Also if you can make do with a 200 mile real world range, it's well worth noting that the 75D is now as quick as the 100D (except if you are planning to cruise over 140 mph) and about 150 kg lighter, so it has the sharpest handling. The 100D gives you roughly 50-60 miles more usable real world range, but 150 kg of extra battery to lug around.

When deciding on wheels, think of it this way:- A 100D on 21" wheels gives you a similar range to a 75D on 19" wheels and has all the downsides of a harsher ride, all at a very significant cost. So 21" wheels are very much a vanity option only on all variants.

As for updates, the reality is that the S is now quite long in the tooth (in terms of an automotive product lifecycle) so should be due for a major change in the next couple of years. I'm not talking about bigger batteries (that's just a range vs weight compromise) but a whole new car! If you are looking to buy right now, I wouldn't let that get in the way. But it might well influence your choice of PCP term length if you don't want to be driving an "old" model toward the end of the term (and chopping in early will be painful on your wallet).

Minor upgrades (usually unannounced) are commonplace with Tesla e.g. the recent new MCU for the main display, so don't be disappointed when later cars get updated hardware - although that should happen less and less as the model matures and more resources turn to the replacement "new" car. The S is now quite a well sorted car after literally dozens of hardware upgrades since 2012. Yes it's been around that long!

Lastly, don't overthink it. I wish I'd bought a Tesla earlier now I've been driving one for a few months! On an everyday basis, the EV driving experience is light years better than a conventional car and no way will I ever be going back!!

 

[Tozz]

The 100D was released in August 2016. I test drove an S P100D today and really liked it.... but... given this was released about 2 years ago, is a 110D / 120D out soon?

There will not be a pack larger than 100 kWh in the current design. Why? Simply because it does not fit.

The 100D is packed with cells and there is simply no more room to fit more. Let alone add another 20%.
For the 100D to work Tesla had to modify the cooling system and actually had some issues with this during release as well.

So if Tesla wants to use the current cell technology (16500 cells) with a larger pack the pack will have to get physically larger.
If Tesla wants to use the M3 cells (2170 cells) the pack will get higher, because these cells are a bit higher than the 16500 cells are.

So if a larger pack were to happen, the MS/MX chassis will have to be redesigned. So this is more likely to happen when a new design is revealed. Now there are rumours that a design refresh is "imminent", but that rumor is ongoing for quite some time now. With the new Intel MCU (MCU2) expectations of a complete overhaul have diminished

So, in short: No. No 110 or 120 soon.

 

[wdolson]

There will not be a pack larger than 100 kWh in the current design. Why? Simply because it does not fit.

The 100D is packed with cells and there is simply no more room to fit more. Let alone add another 20%.
For the 100D to work Tesla had to modify the cooling system and actually had some issues with this during release as well.

So if Tesla wants to use the current cell technology (16500 cells) with a larger pack the pack will have to get physically larger.
If Tesla wants to use the M3 cells (2170 cells) the pack will get higher, because these cells are a bit higher than the 16500 cells are.

So if a larger pack were to happen, the MS/MX chassis will have to be redesigned. So this is more likely to happen when a new design is revealed. Now there are rumours that a design refresh is "imminent", but that rumor is ongoing for quite some time now. With the new Intel MCU (MCU2) expectations of a complete overhaul have diminished

So, in short: No. No 110 or 120 soon.

According to Jason Hughes (wk057) the existing modules have the height to handle the 2170s. I'm sure Tesla tested the 2170s in some modified Model S/X packs before Model 3 test mules were available and they know how to lay them out. The resulting modules would have fewer cells because the 2170s are a larger diameter, but more total capacity due to more total height and more economic use of space with larger cylinders. There are also rumors the energy density of the new cells may be close to 2X the 18650s.

I think 120 or a bit more could be possible with a pack using new cells. However, they are not going to switch over to new cells for the Model S/X until Model 3 production is stabilized and they have excess capacity coming out of the GigaFactory. In the rumors thread mentioned above in this thread someone who claimed to know someone in Tesla's engineering department said the original plan was to bring out a refreshed S and possibly X later this year, but with the Model 3 problems, that's been pushed off until next year.

Like they did with the 100 KWh pack, they will initially make it available for the Performance version and then bring it out for the standard large battery car when the supply is there to do it.

It is possible we may see an upgraded battery for the Performance car by the end of the year. Maybe. But the standard car won't have it until next year I expect.

 

[Tozz]

I think 120 or a bit more could be possible with a pack using new cells. However, they are not going to switch over to new cells for the Model S/X until Model 3 production is stabilized and they have excess capacity coming out of the GigaFactory.

This, and additionally from what I've heard Tesla hasn't fulfilled the order with Panasonic yet to buy 2 billion 16500 cells yet.

About the fit/dont fit: Could be, the 2170 is just 5mm higher. so maybe this could work in the current pack. But still, as you point out too there is a redesign in the works. It doesn't make a lot of sense to work out a new pack design now if you're going to redesign the entire car a year later.

 

[Krash]

...the 75D is now as quick as the 100D (except if you are planning to cruise over 140 mph) and about 150 kg lighter, so it has the sharpest handling...

The 75D has the same torque settings so the first two seconds are the same quickness, but the 100D has higher max power settings so it has more power to get to every speed above this faster. The 100D also has later and lower Back EMF power trailoff due to its higher battery voltage and current, which starts on the 75D at about 70mph.

 

[arg]

When deciding on wheels, think of it this way:- A 100D on 21" wheels gives you a similar range to a 75D on 19" wheels and has all the downsides of a harsher ride, all at a very significant cost. So 21" wheels are very much a vanity option only on all variants.

My understanding is that a good proportion of that difference is in the tyre choice - as supplied OEM, the 21" have stickier tyres with the inevitable compromise on range.

Arguably, the 21" are mandatory on the 'P' models - without the stickier tyres, you can't achieve the faster launches that are the whole reason for having the P in the first place.

Conversely, if you want the 21" on a non-P car purely for vanity reasons, you could probably find some lower-performing tyres to get back some of the lost range.

 

[Peteski]

About the fit/dont fit: Could be, the 2170 is just 5mm higher. so maybe this could work in the current pack. But still, as you point out too there is a redesign in the works. It doesn't make a lot of sense to work out a new pack design now if you're going to redesign the entire car a year later.

I agree and Tesla must now surely be well into the design phase of the next generation S (presuming they wish to survive in this sector!). It's now a 6 year old model and therefore due for imminent replacement with an "all-new" version. Although I can imagine them stretching it out for another couple of years while they get M3 production under control and MY release etc. Certainly haven't seen any mention of the inevitable disguised prototypes out on the road, so probably nothing too imminent. I'm expecting a complete new model S in 2020/21 at the latest if Tesla are serious about staying in this market. Then a new X a year or two later. I do hope that is their plan anyway!

 

[Tozz]

Arguably, the 21" are mandatory on the 'P' models

A thing to keep in mind regarding 21" is the curb damage that will inevitably happen. The tire sidewall on 21" is small and the rims extend out compared to the tire.

 

[Peteski]

The 75D has the same torque settings so the first two seconds are the same quickness, but the 100D has higher max power settings so it has more power to get to every speed above this faster. The 100D also has later and lower Back EMF power trailoff due to its higher battery voltage and current, which starts on the 75D at about 70mph.

The increased power of the 100D is offset to a very large extent by the 150 kg weight penalty (a=F/m). The end result is almost identical straight line acceleration up to 60 mph (4.1 vs 4.2 sec) and no difference that you can feel up to 100 mph in a back-to-back test. I'm sure the 100D would pull away from a 75D at high speed, but you are not likely to be making any practical use of that difference. Really there is no real life performance advantage of the 100D over the 75D unless you are going well over 100 mph - which is not a good idea in the UK and totally inefficient for an EV anyway. The only reason to buy the 100D over the 75D since the update is for the extra range if you need it. Only the P100D is significantly quicker if you think you will be using it enough to justify the cost or simply for the "P" badge.

I couldn't find a drag race comparison of the uncorked S75D vs S100D but interestingly there is a video of the S75D vs P85D and they are surprisingly close in performance! Shows how far Tesla have come in the last few years. Obviously the latest P100D is in a different league in acceleration.

 

[Tozz]

justify the cost or simply for the "P" badge.

Dont forget the red brake calipers!

 

[WannabeOwner]

if I really couldn't think of anything else to spend £300 a month on

£300 a month is a lot of flowers for Wifee ... mind you, might come to that if I bought a P100DL

simply for the "P" badge.

I de-badged mine I now realise I should have sold it on eBay

 

[jbcarioca]

My suspicion is that Elon was thunking that motor, inverter and other electrical components will improve as they ahem already done for Model 3. Were the Model S100D to have the same relative efficiency improvements that have been postulated for Model 3 we might expect as much as 25% range improvement without additional battery capacity.

Some allegedly well-informed people tell me that is impossible. However, permanent magnet vs induction all by itself might yield 20% increased efficiency. Inverter and other phantom drains could produce another 5-8%. JB Straubel has repeatedly said he expects more percentage improvement in inviter and controllers than he does for batteries in the short term. he does expect major battery improvements too, but not in the immediate future.

I am thinking about a P100D myself. Waiting for the next version might be my choice, but I'm seriously dithering. Anyway, I'll not wait for the Roadster.

 

[WannabeOwner]

permanent magnet vs induction all by itself might yield 20% increased efficiency

Not my field but I wonder why they didn't do that originally? My understanding is that Permanent magnets allow the Bolt to come to a stop (i.e. just take foot off the gas) rather than having to brake the last few MPH. But given my zero-knowledge I may need correcting on that point

JB Straubel has repeatedly said he expects more percentage improvement in inviter and controllers than he does for batteries in the short term

Presumably changing to a different battery (size / better energy density chemistry) means that the current battery module becomes redundant (what about spares for existing cars?) and then you have to "junk" the existing factory line, and reconfigure for the new raw-materials / packaging. If its just packaging I suppose the existing line may cope with minor change, but a change of chemistry seems like a major capital expense, and I'd be wanting to have got the most out of the old investment before then ...

 

[jbcarioca]

Not my field but I wonder why they didn't do that originally? My understanding is that Permanent magnets allow the Bolt to come to a stop (i.e. just take foot off the gas) rather than having to brake the last few MPH



...

Permanent magnet motors have had two problems: 1) they use expensive rare earths and 2) they have tended to be less durable than have been inductive motors.
Tesla seems to have solved those problems while preserving a the two biggest advantages they have, less heat generation and higher efficiency. Obviously those two are closely related.

 

[Raechris]

Thank you guys. That's very helpful. If I go ahead with the order I'll 100% pick the referall code of someone on this forum.

I'm still undecided between the 100D and P100D lol!

Hi, happy to help and also provide a code if needed?

I bought my S75D in Dec and felt the same way that hard to justify the price increases for 100 and P for my needs. IMHO I find the 75 plenty fast from zero or on hw for passing and actually find I am concerned other drivers just don’t realize how quickly I can change position on the hw with so many lazy lane changers (never using blinkers) in Boston area.

 

[David99]

I personally think an upgraded Model S is coming sooner than later. The M3 already beats the Model S in range. The semis and new Roaster won't sell in large numbers and won't be out for another 2 years so batteries are not the hold back. The S would greatly benefit from the more efficient motors, new cells, more cost efficient production/material seen in the 3.

 

[Peteski]

Hi, happy to help and also provide a code if needed?

I bought my S75D in Dec and felt the same way that hard to justify the price increases for 100 and P for my needs. IMHO I find the 75 plenty fast from zero or on hw for passing and actually find I am concerned other drivers just don’t realize how quickly I can change position on the hw with so many lazy lane changers (never using blinkers) in Boston area.

Yes they are vey quick and the instant torque makes real world moves even quicker. I've had the same thought about other drivers not expecting you to be where you are. Last time I had that issue was back in the 90s when I was driving a Porsche 911 Carerra RSL. A P100D is so quick as to be totally unbelievable for an average driver. I think there's a good chance someone will pull out on you sooner or later if you don't make that allowance.

Also got a code if you need one, woo hoo!!!

 

[Krash]

The increased power of the 100D is offset to a very large extent by the 150 kg weight penalty (a=F/m). The end result is almost identical straight line acceleration up to 60 mph (4.1 vs 4.2 sec) and no difference that you can feel up to 100 mph in a back-to-back test. I'm sure the 100D would pull away from a 75D at high speed, but you are not likely to be making any practical use of that difference. Really there is no real life performance advantage of the 100D over the 75D unless you are going well over 100 mph - which is not a good idea in the UK and totally inefficient for an EV anyway. The only reason to buy the 100D over the 75D since the update is for the extra range if you need it. Only the P100D is significantly quicker if you think you will be using it enough to justify the cost or simply for the "P" badge.

I couldn't find a drag race comparison of the uncorked S75D vs S100D but interestingly there is a video of the S75D vs P85D and they are surprisingly close in performance! Shows how far Tesla have come in the last few years. Obviously the latest P100D is in a different league in acceleration.

Here is what a quarter mile acceleration run looks like between an S75D and an S100D. Notice the dotted grey lines are the difference in power. The S100D has more power available for passing 40 mph and 25% more above 50mph...