New 2170 Cells: Coming sooner, rather than later?

[michael805]

With Model 3 production starting very soon, and deliveries by the end of the year, I'm curious as to you guys thoughts on when Model S / X will transition to 2170 cells.

I find it hard to imagine that the Model 3 will get the new cells before the flagship product.

Any thoughts on this? We are considering an S, but seems silly to buy now if 2170 cells come a month or two later.

Michael

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I believe Tesla has a contract for the old type of cells that runs until the end of this year or so. Also, there are musings that the automated production for the new cell and new packs is only being built as we speak...

So, it seems quite plausible Model S/X simply can't practically have the new cells until perhaps early next year soonest. And Tesla has to work around this issue by anti-selling the Model 3 rather brutally...

That said, Model S/X may get other things come Q3, so I would definitely wait. A new charging port (CCS) is speculated, as is an upgrade to the big screen computer, that might coincide with a Model 3 launch too...

 

[TexasEV]

The different battery size is about manufacturing efficiency and cost. It's not "better" from a driver's standpoint. I don't see any reason to delay a Model S purchase to wait on when Tesla changes the battery to the new format. Also I don't see it happening soon as the new battery production is being ramped up for Model 3.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The different battery size is about manufacturing efficiency and cost. It's not "better" from a driver's standpoint. I don't see any reason to delay a Model S purchase to wait on when Tesla changes the battery to the new format. Also I don't see it happening soon as the new battery production is being ramped up for Model 3.

The new battery chemistry could allow for improvements in charging speeds, charging rates, dealing with issues current batteries have (launch limiting, peak rate throttling for DC charging etc). After all, Elon Musk called the old chemistry an accident of history and that 21-70 is the optimal cell size...

That said, new batteries for Model S/X may still be further away than some other changes that may come in Q3 as a result of Model 3 including potentially some changes that will overflow to Model S/X as well.

Waiting is wise, it is only a little over a month now to see what the launch comes with...

 

[TexasEV]

There's always something new or improved to wait for. With that mindset you'll never buy the car. If I had waited another month in 2013 I could have had parking sensors. Every Tesla owner has a similar story.

 

[SmartElectric]

The simple way to solve the "problem" of buying a car that's out of date in a few months, is to buy a car that's already out of date!

Buy CPO like we did. Your expectations will be lower, and the car will exceed them! Our 2013 "classic" Tesla S85 has no parking sensors, no autopilot, rear wheel drive only, and yet, it's the best car we've ever owned.

When my Model 3 arrives, we're keeping the S, my wife loves it! Of course, that means we'll have 3 EV's in the driveway, so my oldest gets the Smart ED.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

There's always something new or improved to wait for. With that mindset you'll never buy the car. If I had waited another month in 2013 I could have had parking sensors. Every Tesla owner has a similar story.

The decision to wait is of course a factor of many things. But it is good to be aware of what may well be around the corner. You make it sound like not waiting is always the right choice, but IMO it isn't that simple.

With that mindset one'll never buy the car? Tesla launching a new generation of car happens quite rarely. Waiting to see what the effects of that major event are is hardly "never". If nothing of interest surfaces in early July, not much anything is likely lost by putting in a belated order then.

We know a Model 3 launch is coming in July. It is also a good educated guess some new things, perhaps even major new things, might accompany that affecting the entire fleet. Thirdly, we know 21-70 batteries are coming to Model S/X as well, possibly some months later...

If these things matter to you more than getting a Model S/X in Q2, waiting quite simply makes sense. On the flipside there are of course the chances of prices increases, negative feature changes as well as waiting in vain. But in this case latter don't seem too likely - Tesla has an incentive to improve Model S/X, not the other way around.

Everyone makes a decision for themselves, of course...

 

[tga]

The new battery chemistry could allow for improvements in charging speeds, charging rates, dealing with issues current batteries have (launch limiting, peak rate throttling for DC charging etc). After all, Elon Musk called the old chemistry an accident of history and that 21-70 is the optimal cell size...

Chemistry != physical cell size/form factor. A change to 2170's could be completely transparent to owners (ie, no difference in pack size, power limits, etc).

Interface vs implementation, and all that.

 

[eye.surgeon]

The new battery chemistry could allow for improvements in charging speeds, charging rates, dealing with issues current batteries have (launch limiting, peak rate throttling for DC charging etc). After all, Elon Musk called the old chemistry an accident of history and that 21-70 is the optimal cell size...

That said, new batteries for Model S/X may still be further away than some other changes that may come in Q3 as a result of Model 3 including potentially some changes that will overflow to Model S/X as well.

Waiting is wise, it is only a little over a month now to see what the launch comes with...

The new chemistry could also be worse than the old one, we've seen that happen with the supercharger amp reduction issue that doesn't affect the older packs.

 

[michael805]

I was under the impression that was because the newer, higher capacity packs charge at higher rates due to their larger size. Not because they have worse chemistry. Please correct me if I am mininformed.

 

[Shock-On-T]

I was under the impression that was because the newer, higher capacity packs charge at higher rates due to their larger size. Not because they have worse chemistry. Please correct me if I am mininformed.

The newer chemistry (silicon anode?) has slightly different charge characteristics, not related to total pack size.
Specifically, they charge slower when they are very empty.
Also after a certain number of DC charges (?300) Tesla enforces a slight restriction on max charging speed to about 98kW.
The total impact on charging speed is actually quite mild, a time lapse comparison is here:

 

[michael805]

The newer chemistry (silicon anode?) has slightly different charge characteristics, not related to total pack size.
Specifically, they charge slower when they are very empty.
Also after a certain number of DC charges (?300) Tesla enforces a slight restriction on max charging speed to about 98kW.
The total impact on charging speed is actually quite mild, a time lapse comparison is here:

Interesting, thanks. I still have a lot to learn.

 

[Shock-On-T]

Interesting, thanks. I still have a lot to learn.

The main thing is not to worry! Tesla does a good job of managing the batteries, and it's only die-hard enthusiasts on forums like this that ever notice their tinkering.

 

[henderrj]

Somewhere on this forum is a thread called "why the model S won't get 2170s anytime soon". Lots more detail there but I still maintain that it'll be a good year before we see them in the S/X. Besides, there's no real advantage other than size. The chemistry can be the same in either cell. Of much greater interest to me would be an improvement on the interior. Really, a remake. But I don't think you're going to see that for at least six months either. The 3 is eating up all the time that's available. And what it doesn't the semi is taking.

 

[davidc18]

I would expect the the new cells will hit the s/x when the 3 is released followed shortly with an increased pack size.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Let's return to this thread in a year's time and see what was what 21-70-wise. I agree we don't know. But that is a good reason to wait a while and learn more.

I don't understand the reluctance to support waiting to find out. For me it would seem common sense, as we are so close to a major change in the Tesla drivetrain (the battery).

 

[DocZ]

I'm waiting on the 2170s before I get an S. On the verge of a new product update, why wouldn't you wait? Unless you really need the car right now, I'd wait

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I believe Tesla has a contract for the old type of cells that runs until the end of this year or so. Also, there are musings that the automated production for the new cell and new packs is only being built as we speak...

So, it seems quite plausible Model S/X simply can't practically have the new cells until perhaps early next year soonest. And Tesla has to work around this issue by anti-selling the Model 3 rather brutally...

That said, Model S/X may get other things come Q3, so I would definitely wait. A new charging port (CCS) is speculated, as is an upgrade to the big screen computer, that might coincide with a Model 3 launch too...

Well, I think that Tesla's contract is strictly for _volume_ rather than being for a time period. I think they might need another good chunk of S/X sales before that contract is up.

However, Japanese culture is such that there is flexibility in contracts, so they are open to change (albeit quite slowly) and the competitive environment could mean that Panasonic will be ready to switch to 2170 early.

 

[Whisky]

I'm waiting on the 2170s before I get an S. On the verge of a new product update, why wouldn't you wait? Unless you really need the car right now, I'd wait

I mostly agree with you, but playing the waiting game is almost always a losing position. What if Tesla releases 2170 batteries later this year (as Elon eluded), but then Tesla offers an entirely redesigned Model S (or one with some sort of new high-desire feature) in early 2018? Companies tend to use these notches of innovations to drive quarterly sales.

I purchased a model x out of need (growing family), and definitely agree that waiting is a good option, but there will always be something down the line to give you pause...

 

[Uncle Paul]

Nobody ever wins at the "What If" game.