New and Used Prices

[Tension]

I thought I'd start a thread to discuss new and used (mostly used) prices of Teslas. My interest is in Model S's, but any type could be discussed here, of course.

I've been watching the woeful prices that most sellers have been asking for their used S's, and noticed this (imho) incredible deal - a 2017 P100DL with 28,000kms for $119,675 before stamp duty.

It's still up on Tesla's used inventory but sorry folks, it's already sold - nice catch to the buyer!

Anyway, hopefully if Tesla put some more to put up, it may wake up the private used market and they might get a bit more realistic in their prices.

Personally I'm on the lookout for any Model S AP2+ P100DL (the unicorn FUSC models are out there somewhere too). Sometime between now and Plaid one would think there will be some sellers/trade-ins.

Please share your thoughts

 

[DrHoon]

IMO having gone through the process of researching all possible hidden costs and contingencies there is a big problem with the secondary and tertiary markets for Tesla.

The new car value is designed to be competitive with other new cars, but the lack of proper general servicing expertise and constrained parts availability does not create confidence in second hand car markets. The write-to-chip limit is a good example of where a simple fix might be possible.

It is like history repeating compared to the 1920s and 1930s. The mass adoption of automobiles was facilitated in part by annual models and market segment differentiation etc but also through the creation of mass second hand markets.

It's not my area of expertise but I think the factory aftermarket industry took off only in the postwar boom (hot toddlers then customisers).

 

[raynewman]

IMO having gone through the process of researching all possible hidden costs and contingencies there is a big problem with the secondary and tertiary markets for Tesla.

The new car value is designed to be competitive with other new cars, but the lack of proper general servicing expertise and constrained parts availability does not create confidence in second hand car markets. The write-to-chip limit is a good example of where a simple fix might be possible.

It is like history repeating compared to the 1920s and 1930s. The mass adoption of automobiles was facilitated in part by annual models and market segment differentiation etc but also through the creation of mass second hand markets.

It's not my area of expertise but I think the factory aftermarket industry took off only in the postwar boom (hot toddlers then customisers).

The Tesla doesn't need much at all in the way of servicing and I'm sure, that by the time the warranties and extended warranties have run out there will be someone who can fix problems like that chip one.
Also, there are already people collecting wrecked cars as a source of spare parts.

 

[TezzaB]

IMO having gone through the process of researching all possible hidden costs and contingencies there is a big problem with the secondary and tertiary markets for Tesla.

I don't think there is an issue - I purchased a secondhand Model S without any concerns at all. Currently there is probably a bit more of an incentive to buy one through Tesla rather than a Private Sale to get the extra warranty but if the price is right anything will sell.

 

[Chuq]

Saw this on carsales: 2015 Model S P85 - $67,000

Seems very cheap... no mention of any damage. Anyone know the history of this one? (NSW plate "ELEC")

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2014-tesla-model-s-p85-auto/SSE-AD-6220183/?Cr=0

It apparently has the lifetime free supercharging and Autopilot HW1.

 

[rioli33]

Saw this on carsales: 2015 Model S P85 - $67,000

Seems very cheap... no mention of any damage. Anyone know the history of this one? (NSW plate "ELEC")

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2014-tesla-model-s-p85-auto/SSE-AD-6220183/?Cr=0

It apparently has the lifetime free supercharging and Autopilot HW1.

It's been up on Carsales for a while and has seen its fair share of price adjustments. I'd say that there's nothing dodgy going on here but rather that sellers are realising that not many people will buy a used S for the same price as a brand new 3. It does have 125,000km on it as well. Also, note that Free Unlimited Supercharging can't be transferred to new owners last time I checked.

 

[PJF000]

It's been up on Carsales for a while and has seen its fair share of price adjustments. I'd say that there's nothing dodgy going on here but rather that sellers are realising that not many people will buy a used S for the same price as a brand new 3. It does have 125,000km on it as well. Also, note that Free Unlimited Supercharging can't be transferred to new owners last time I checked.

Depends on the deal. That 2015 S would be attached to the car, not the owner.

 

[taco]

I've been watching used sales for a few weeks, considering a used Model S if I can find one for less than a new 3.
Stuff on Carsales doesn't seem to be moving, and I think there is a bit of a disconnect between what owners think their cars are worth, and what the market is willing to pay. Prices on Redbook are way less than what people are asking on Carsales.
I've watched Pickles auction off last week a RWD 2015 Model S 85 with ~80,000kms that opened at $55k and ended at $58k, and a 2017 Model X P100D with less than 6,000kms opened at $100k and ended at $111k. Both were in great condition as far as I could tell.

 

[Tension]

Saw this on carsales: 2015 Model S P85 - $67,000

Seems very cheap... no mention of any damage. Anyone know the history of this one? (NSW plate "ELEC")

https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/details/2014-tesla-model-s-p85-auto/SSE-AD-6220183/?Cr=0

It apparently has the lifetime free supercharging and Autopilot HW1.

There are several things to look out for when buying older Tesla's. The most expensive one is screens (MCU's) needing to be replaced when a tiny memory chip dies from excessive logging. The car you linked has already had its screen replaced, so the current screen in it will be good for many more years to come (before eventually succumbing to the same issue, which doesn't appear to have been fixed in any Tesla, 3 included).

I don't think there's anything dodgy happening, I think that the seller is just doing what all the sellers should do - adjusting their price down in order to attract a buyer. There are so many unreasonably priced Tesla's up there atm; it's ridiculous. IMHO this is the best valued Model S on carsales atm; P85's are beautiful machines (I've spent over a thousand hours in one). The fact that there are 85's up there asking more than this P85 is just crazy.

It's been up on Carsales for a while and has seen its fair share of price adjustments. I'd say that there's nothing dodgy going on here but rather that sellers are realising that not many people will buy a used S for the same price as a brand new 3. It does have 125,000km on it as well. Also, note that Free Unlimited Supercharging can't be transferred to new owners last time I checked.

Free unlimited supercharging certainly can be transferred if it is on a car that was purchased before January 15, 2017 (with apparently some exceptions to cars after that date). It is attached to the car, not the owner.

 

[paulp]

It's been up on Carsales for a while and has seen its fair share of price adjustments. I'd say that there's nothing dodgy going on here but rather that sellers are realising that not many people will buy a used S for the same price as a brand new 3. It does have 125,000km on it as well. Also, note that Free Unlimited Supercharging can't be transferred to new owners last time I checked.

Yes it can be transferred on earlier models. I sold mine and the new owner definately got the supercharging. Tesla pointed me to the order agreement which showed the supercharging was connected to the car not the owner. This has of course changed multiple times, so very much buyer do homework

 

[Tension]

Yeah the only exception now is buying a CPO from Tesla - they're removing free unlimited supercharging from cars that Tesla themselves resell. At least, they were - they haven't had any older CPO's on their site in quite a while.

 

[EcoCloudIT]

I think saying the Model S isn't selling because of the 3 is a little "odd", I mean even an older S has many things the 3 doesn't have....it would be like saying a 3-4 year old BMW 7 series should be cheaper than a new BMW 320i....of course not.

I think once people drive both they will either want the extra features of the S and don't mind missing out of AP3 and that side of things and decide they would prefer a bigger car etc.

Whilst I agree a more expensive car will percentage wise devalue faster than a cheaper car it doesn't mean a 3 year old S should be cheaper than the cheapest 3 in order to be able to sell/be considered good value...

In the USA the second hand S market was stronger when the 3 came online...I guess because people wanted the 3 and looked at their options and found 2-4 years old S's not much more than new 3's and thoughts that's a good deal....

 

[Tension]

That's a valid perspective, @EcoCloudIT. My only counter-argument would be that Tesla is/was really the only 'no-compromise' electric vehicle, and for a long time the Model S was the only one. A lot of people don't care about features, and simply want the combination of cheapest & newest.

The similar case would be Uber. When Uber started, it was only Uber Black, which was quite expensive, but people used it because of the convenience it offered. When UberX came on, many people switched to using it simply because it was cheaper - they didn't care about the lesser features and luxuries. I believe (and I could be wrong) that there are quite a few Model S owners that owned an S simply because there was no cheaper no-compromise electric vehicle available. I think the 3 does take away some S buyers, but it also attracts many more buyers for whom the S wasn't an option.

Either way, there are a lot of overpriced (imho) S's for sale atm that simply aren't selling. There are six S70, 70D, & 85's currently for sale asking more than three P85D's - and even those P85D's aren't selling for what they're asking, and I don't even think they're asking unreasonable amounts of money. But a 3P can be had for about the same monthly repayments as a four year old P85D (7 year new car loan vs 5 year used car loan), and the 3 has better batteries, motors, and AP hardware. I think the AP2+ upgradeability for FSD could quite possibly be the biggest feature that buyers care about right now in terms of 'future-proofing' (and avoiding buying a new car every 4-5 years), which means current AP1 cars are going to be worth far less than current estimations.

I think the used S & X market has further to fall, mainly because of the price drops, and what appears to be vastly superior 'Raven' upgraded models that are arriving now.

Time will tell, but it's very interesting to watch.

 

[DrHoon]

I don't think there is an issue - I purchased a secondhand Model S without any concerns at all. Currently there is probably a bit more of an incentive to buy one through Tesla rather than a Private Sale to get the extra warranty but if the price is right anything will sell.

My issue at the moment is waiting for our Model S to be transferred to our Tesla account. It's been a week. Some US members were told 30 days. I find it frustrating that it is pitched as car plus platform. We're waiting for Tesla's 'service' to catch up. (Would we be waiting if it was a new car? It would be unacceptable.) The problem is with how they approach second hand cars.

The transfer of ownership delay is emblematic of a larger set of problems around improving the lifecycle of older cars (ie no system in place for converting MCU1 to 2, upgrading motors, replacing batteries, etc). These and heaps of others are all relatively obvious ways to service the second hand market and therefore improve the resale value for new car buyers.

 

[EcoCloudIT]

That's a valid perspective, @EcoCloudIT. My only counter-argument would be that Tesla is/was really the only 'no-compromise' electric vehicle, and for a long time the Model S was the only one. A lot of people don't care about features, and simply want the combination of cheapest & newest.

The similar case would be Uber. When Uber started, it was only Uber Black, which was quite expensive, but people used it because of the convenience it offered. When UberX came on, many people switched to using it simply because it was cheaper - they didn't care about the lesser features and luxuries. I believe (and I could be wrong) that there are quite a few Model S owners that owned an S simply because there was no cheaper no-compromise electric vehicle available. I think the 3 does take away some S buyers, but it also attracts many more buyers for whom the S wasn't an option.

Either way, there are a lot of overpriced (imho) S's for sale atm that simply aren't selling. There are six S70, 70D, & 85's currently for sale asking more than three P85D's - and even those P85D's aren't selling for what they're asking, and I don't even think they're asking unreasonable amounts of money. But a 3P can be had for about the same monthly repayments as a four year old P85D (7 year new car loan vs 5 year used car loan), and the 3 has better batteries, motors, and AP hardware. I think the AP2+ upgradeability for FSD could quite possibly be the biggest feature that buyers care about right now in terms of 'future-proofing' (and avoiding buying a new car every 4-5 years), which means current AP1 cars are going to be worth far less than current estimations.

I think the used S & X market has further to fall, mainly because of the price drops, and what appears to be vastly superior 'Raven' upgraded models that are arriving now.

Time will tell, but it's very interesting to watch.

The P85D are all early 2015 models without AP1, old seats....they are a Gen 1 car compared to the Gen 2 cars....Gen 2 having far less issues, rattles etc. Gen 1 looks the same as Gen 2 (but is not)....Gen 3 has the nose cone and originally same with AP1 also...then about 6 months after Gen 3 (with new nose cone) came out so did AP2.0 and so on.....however the Gen 2 car was a vast improvement over Gen 1 cars....

 

[Tension]

The P85D are all early 2015 models without AP1, old seats....they are a Gen 1 car compared to the Gen 2 cars....Gen 2 having far less issues, rattles etc. Gen 1 looks the same as Gen 2 (but is not)....Gen 3 has the nose cone and originally same with AP1 also...then about 6 months after Gen 3 (with new nose cone) came out so did AP2.0 and so on.....however the Gen 2 car was a vast improvement over Gen 1 cars....

Na all the current ones on Carsales at least have AP1. No-AP cars are very rare in Australia, and there aren't any D's without AP

 

[taco]

There's a SR+ Model 3 on Carsales already. Claims that LR wasn't an option when they ordered and they want to upgrade. Asking slightly more than the new price for a black Model 3 with FSD option. Perhaps someone impatient will pay it.

 

[lonewolf313]

There's a SR+ Model 3 on Carsales already. Claims that LR wasn't an option when they ordered and they want to upgrade. Asking slightly more than the new price for a black Model 3 with FSD option. Perhaps someone impatient will pay it.

You know, I think that $85,000 is way off the mark as to the real value of that Model 3 on Carsales.

First of all, the original price paid was before the price increase so standard paint (black was standard then) with the FSD would have been no more than around $80,000

Then there is the cost of Stamp Duty. If I were buying this car, stamp duty would be applied to me again so that cost should be worn by the current owner = $3,000

Wear and tear for the 2,000 km already driven (say $0.50 per km) = $1,000

So now the true value of this 2nd hand Model 3 should be $76,000 at most (if I were buying it) and black is not my choice of colour.

 

[tessiestraya]

There's a SR+ Model 3 on Carsales already. Claims that LR wasn't an option when they ordered and they want to upgrade. Asking slightly more than the new price for a black Model 3 with FSD option. Perhaps someone impatient will pay it.

I'm impatient but not an idiot.

 

[ICUDoc]

true value

"True value" is oxymoronic:
Value is what it is to different people.
The car will be "worth" whatever someone will pay.