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New button to enable FSD Beta download?

techlogik

Closed
Mar 22, 2021
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280
FL
Surprised people are so foolish to believe any of what Elon has to say any longer regarding FSD. We know there are like 70 people it is figured outside of Tesla that have Beta? The rest are employees. Guess what, 10k spots, 9950 of those will be TSLA employees and 50 will be regular customers. So we will get 3 more people posting Beta videos on YouTube. Big deal. Hope I’m wrong.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
12,565
33,613
Seattle, WA
Surprised people are so foolish to believe any of what Elon has to say any longer regarding FSD. We know there are like 70 people it is figured outside of Tesla that have Beta? The rest are employees. Guess what, 10k spots, 9950 of those will be TSLA employees and 50 will be regular customers. So we will get 3 more people posting Beta videos on YouTube. Big deal. Hope I’m wrong.
I think many of us have watched Musk for long enough to figure out what to believe and what to not. Infact a lot of us have a substantial portion of our net worth riding on that. I've watched him from his Paypal days, for eg.
 
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stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
11,324
6,481
Surprised people are so foolish to believe any of what Elon has to say any longer regarding FSD. We know there are like 70 people it is figured outside of Tesla that have Beta? The rest are employees. Guess what, 10k spots, 9950 of those will be TSLA employees and 50 will be regular customers. So we will get 3 more people posting Beta videos on YouTube. Big deal. Hope I’m wrong.
I keep hearing this thing about 70 people that keeps being repeated infinitely here, but that's not only outdated, but likely very off given it was from March before Tesla expanded the pool (they only had 824 testers back then, they now have around 2000).

From March 9 transcript:
Update on City Street Pilot: Currently there are 824 vehicles in the pilot program- 753 employees and 71 nonemployees. ... By the end of the Week of March 9, 2021 Tesla will expand this pool of participants to approximately 1600.
PlainSite :: Documents :: California DMV Tesla Robo-Taxi / FSD Notes

Note there is also a difference between employees employed specifically as test drivers, and participants that simply got access to the program in their personally owned vehicles (and their daily job at Tesla has nothing to do with vehicle testing). Elon's tweets are saying the ~2000 are driven by "owners" which suggests that figure is talking about the latter even for the employee owned ones. Note Tesla threw in free FSD in the past for employees, so they have a decent pool from that.
Tesla launches new incentives for employees to buy cars and get on Autopilot Hardware 3 test program
 
Surprised people are so foolish to believe any of what Elon has to say any longer regarding FSD. We know there are like 70 people it is figured outside of Tesla that have Beta? The rest are employees. Guess what, 10k spots, 9950 of those will be TSLA employees and 50 will be regular customers. So we will get 3 more people posting Beta videos on YouTube. Big deal. Hope I’m wrong.
I'm curious. Can you name another time that he gave a specific date one week away that turned out not to be correct within a day or two? It seems to me he always makes those deadlines +/- a day or two. I could have missed something though, that's why I'm asking you if you have a specific example.
 
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Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
833
1,006
Ca
I'm curious. Can you name another time that he gave a specific date one week away that turned out not to be correct within a day or two? It seems to me he always makes those deadlines +/- a day or two. I could have missed something though, that's why I'm asking you if you have a specific example.
Not so much a date but, this is just the ability to hit a button. What happens next? 100 people get added?
 
Someone that I know locally just got accepted into the FSD beta when 10.0 was released to the testers. I take this as either an incredible coincidence or an indication that people have been being added to the FSD beta all along. The person is neither a Tesla employee nor an "influencer".

I suggest that the size of the actual pool of testers in the closed beta is a trade secret. And even after the "button" is released, none of us peons will know how many testers there actually are. Maybe Tesla will reveal a number at some point.
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
11,324
6,481
Someone that I know locally just got accepted into the FSD beta when 10.0 was released to the testers. I take this as either an incredible coincidence or an indication that people have been being added to the FSD beta all along. The person is neither a Tesla employee nor an "influencer".

I suggest that the size of the actual pool of testers in the closed beta is a trade secret. And even after the "button" is released, none of us peons will know how many testers there actually are. Maybe Tesla will reveal a number at some point.
Well, Tesla isn't really treating it as a trade secret, they told their numbers to CA DMV back in March, but didn't ask them to withhold it as a trade secret. Elon has also publicly said they have ~2000 testers now. Elon's previous goal was expansion to ~10k, that's my guess for the next target with the button release. I don't feel like it'll be a wide release.

But anyways, it matches my impression of what the button means: it's a replacement for the emails, and Tesla will still be vetting people before approving them. Some people thought it'll straight up download it for use, no questions asked, but it's pretty clear that's not what's going to happen.
FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)
 
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KArnold

Member
May 21, 2017
804
888
Columbus OH
Not so much a date but, this is just the ability to hit a button. What happens next? 100 people get added?
It's been said there are 359k sales of FSD - Survey Reveals Tesla's Full Self-Driving Take Rate Is Declining. If even 1k non-employees have it today, which sounds like a very generous SWAG, that's less than .003%.

Seems unlikely the majority if us will see beta FSD this calendar year. Even if 10k are released that's still .03%. But I'd love to be wrong.
 
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acarney

Active Member
Jul 9, 2019
2,895
1,886
Richland, WA

techlogik

Closed
Mar 22, 2021
380
280
FL
I'm curious. Can you name another time that he gave a specific date one week away that turned out not to be correct within a day or two? It seems to me he always makes those deadlines +/- a day or two. I could have missed something though, that's why I'm asking you if you have a specific example.
For beta or all the other crap he’s made up stuff about and never delivered?!?! City streets by the end of this year!!! For the last several years still in their website.

Believe this, if Elon said that needs to come off the website, it would be gone is 1 minute. But noooo. Oh wait, our car will be driving itself across the country (summon) and lick you up in a year blah blah ther just enough two weeks nonsense is well documented so stop tie nonsense just a few short months ago he was going on and in and missed the deadline by weeks and weeks.

But keep dreaming. Why don’t you name a time he actually got it right. Then didn’t turn around and say ooopps harder than we thought?
 
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For beta or all the other crap he’s made up stuff about and never delivered?!?! City streets by the end of this year!!! For the last several years still in their website.

Believe this, if Elon said that needs to come off the website, it would be gone is 1 minute. But noooo. Oh wait, our car will be driving itself across the country (summon) and lick you up in a year blah blah ther just enough two weeks nonsense is well documented so stop tie nonsense just a few short months ago he was going on and in and missed the deadline by weeks and weeks.

But keep dreaming. Why don’t you name a time he actually got it right. Then didn’t turn around and say ooopps harder than we thought?
You didn't actually address my post. I agree that when he says "By the end of the year" or "Two months" it's kind of meaningless. My post though said "Can you name another time that he gave a specific date one week away that turned out not to be correct within a day or two?" And yes, I can name many events that he called a week out that came to pass. Most recently, FSD Beta 10.0. It rolled out pretty much precisely when he said it would a week earlier. So there, I named a time he actually got it right. There's others too. Can you point out a time he called something a week out and was way off? That was my question. I'm guessing you can't, since you failed to do so in your post.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,350
10,888
San Diego
You didn't actually address my post. I agree that when he says "By the end of the year" or "Two months" it's kind of meaningless. My post though said "Can you name another time that he gave a specific date one week away that turned out not to be correct within a day or two?" And yes, I can name many events that he called a week out that came to pass. Most recently, FSD Beta 10.0. It rolled out pretty much precisely when he said it would a week earlier. So there, I named a time he actually got it right. There's others too. Can you point out a time he called something a week out and was way off? That was my question. I'm guessing you can't, since you failed to do so in your post.
Smart Summon was released late September 2019. In his defense though it was worth the wait!
 
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qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
4,052
4,311
VB
it was worth the wait

1632191904999.jpeg
 
Note that tweet about 10 days was from back in the March of this year at the start of the thread, so it already passed long ago. So obviously Elon giving days out doesn't really matter in terms of predicted timeline.

Elon’s tweet was “technically”, and Elon is very carful of his word choices, on Friday. That probably puts the real day at October 1…..I still don’t believe it will happen any time soon tho.

But keep dreaming. Why don’t you name a time he actually got it right. Then didn’t turn around and say ooopps harder than we thought?


Aaannnddd button pressed. :)
 

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