That would be about right. They'll probably get it before the early FSD buyers too.
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New button to enable FSD Beta download?
- Thread starter dckiwi
- Start date
Well, he’s sticking with his story that FSD Beta will be available to all:
And apparently "FSD Beta 8.3" which has "~1000 improvements" (but not the "all NNs to surround video" Beta 9), so us regular folks might experience significant improvements to "superhuman self-driving" even though originally "much more widely" was waiting for that v9 change instead of the original "10x" with v8.3.
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I don't see any way any of this could possibly go wrong.
TBrownTX
Active Member
More from Elon... Elon Musk explains Tesla’s FSD ‘Download Beta’ button and its expected release date
Tim
Tim
FloridaJohn
Member
Do we need to start a betting pool on the first FSD accident after release? 1 day, 3 days, a week?
Don't you think we should start in hours?Do we need to start a betting pool on the first FSD accident after release? 1 day, 3 days, a week?
Is it safe to assume that they are going to show a loss for this quarter, and need the FSD revenue recognized?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I don't know that it is safe to say. It's certainly possible. Tesla has used the FSD demand lever before. And I imagine that letting all FSD owners in the US download FSD Beta would let them recognize a ton of FSD revenue.
Personally, I think it is possible at least part of the reason for the FSD expansion is because of Elon's rivalry with Waymo. We've seen it before that when Waymo makes a big announcement, Elon feels the need to one up them. And Waymo recently announced a big expansion of testing in SF, not to mention a lot of good press for their driverless robotaxis in Phoenix. I would not be surprised if Elon felt that Tesla needed to expand FSD Beta to regain the spotlight and show that they too are making serious FSD progress.
Do we need to start a betting pool on the first FSD accident after release? 1 day, 3 days, a week?
How do we correct misperceptions about FSD Beta and Autopilot? If the wide release of 8.3 becomes so poorly understood that drivers assume they have FSD when they don't, or just have no idea what the limitations are, then there could be many problems indeed.
Most of the good beta drivers are quite aware of the limitations. New downloaders are going to see this as a super cool thing to show off without understanding it.
It's getting near the end of the quarter and I'm also thinking that financial performance of the company is a factor in this release. Also, getting it out before the regulators can catch up. You have to figure there is some inertia on the Federal level due to only having a new administration in for two months.
I've been listening to the audiobook of Lift Off, the new book by Eric Berger about the early days of SpaceX. Elon has been making snap decisions like this for 20 years, and he basically controls Tesla despite it being a public company.
And yeah Elon has Youtube, he sees the videos of Beta testers trying to keep their car from running into curbs. He's willing to take the risk of putting it out there.
I've been listening to the audiobook of Lift Off, the new book by Eric Berger about the early days of SpaceX. Elon has been making snap decisions like this for 20 years, and he basically controls Tesla despite it being a public company.
And yeah Elon has Youtube, he sees the videos of Beta testers trying to keep their car from running into curbs. He's willing to take the risk of putting it out there.
It just clicked. All the people who are currently in the "free trial of FSD" for Q1 after buying their new car in December are going to have access to it if they get it out in time, and then if they additionally drop the price a thousand bucks for the last week or so of the month, they'll see a flood of increased positive cash flow.
I think you're being way too optimistic.Do we need to start a betting pool on the first FSD accident after release? 1 day, 3 days, a week?
Don't you think we should start in hours?
Do we need to start a betting pool on the first FSD accident after release? 1 day, 3 days, a week?
My guess on reddit was someone's gonna damage or destroy a wheel within the first 48 (probably 24) hours, and I fully expect a multiple-vehicle accident within the first week.
I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong about that.
hmm, another cynical way to look at it:
Tesla owners are affluent enough to have political pressure, and many are the early adopter/risk taker type. If everybody gets access to FSD Beta (city Navigate on Autopilot in Level 2 form) at once, there is more momentum to keep FSD going if there are accidents. "That's the price of progress, don't take away my FSD or I will affect your political career"
If only a small group of Beta testers have it and the NHTSA or whoever clamps down, there are less people to get mad about the sudden regulation. It's easier to take away something that people never really had than to take away a feature they are using regularly.
If people can get used to pandemic deaths, they can get used to Level 2 driver assistance systems leading to accidents. It sounds awful, really really awful, but we as a society are numb to body counts right now. September 11th level deaths happen every day from COVID, so what's a few fender benders, even a few bad crashes? I'm not saying I have that perspective personally, but it may be good timing to introduce a high risk software feature, when people's appetite for risk has increased due to pandemic fatigue.
Tesla owners are affluent enough to have political pressure, and many are the early adopter/risk taker type. If everybody gets access to FSD Beta (city Navigate on Autopilot in Level 2 form) at once, there is more momentum to keep FSD going if there are accidents. "That's the price of progress, don't take away my FSD or I will affect your political career"
If only a small group of Beta testers have it and the NHTSA or whoever clamps down, there are less people to get mad about the sudden regulation. It's easier to take away something that people never really had than to take away a feature they are using regularly.
If people can get used to pandemic deaths, they can get used to Level 2 driver assistance systems leading to accidents. It sounds awful, really really awful, but we as a society are numb to body counts right now. September 11th level deaths happen every day from COVID, so what's a few fender benders, even a few bad crashes? I'm not saying I have that perspective personally, but it may be good timing to introduce a high risk software feature, when people's appetite for risk has increased due to pandemic fatigue.
There's no doubt that the first FSD Beta accident will happen soon, and there will be a backlash.
I just hope that no major decisions are made based on a single accident. If the criteria for whether a particular driving system should be allowed is whether it ever results in an accident, then NO human beings should be allowed to drive.
My hope is that the *details* of the accident are taken into account. Was this an accident that a human would have prevented? And even if they would have, are there other accidents that a vehicle with FSD Beta engaged is NOT having that a human would? I guess this is a very difficult question to answer in isolation, and the only reliable data will come from the use of FSD at scale over time.
TLDR - it's a chicken/egg problem. They need to get FSD Beta out to enough people and let them use it long enough to determine whether - in aggregate - it is as safe as or safer than a human driver. But they can't do that if the plug is pulled when the first accident happens.
Also, I think it's interesting that most of the replies on this thread are now assuming that the FSD Beta *will* be made available to *all* US vehicles with this option purchased before the end of the quarter. I still think there's a very good chance (50% or more) that they'll either throttle this to the first X people who push the button, or they delay this into next quarter or later. I hope I'm wrong.
Oh I totally expect to get hosed one way or another. I refuse to believe my car will have the FSD beta any time soon no matter how much I want it.
I do, however, believe that THEY believe they are gonna drop this into the market when Elon says they will and everything will be fine.
I hope you're wrong as well. I wouldn't be surprised, but I'd assume he knows something we don't. I.e. 8.3 might be a decent amount better. Than 8.2. I'd assume they're already alpha testing it now and probably see enough improvements to feel comfortable releasing it.
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