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New button to enable FSD Beta download?
- Thread starter dckiwi
- Start date
I’m really just waiting for Musk to finally be held responsible for his constant misrepresentation of when things will come to market, effectively misleading investors. Musk should not be leading Tesla at this point and I cannot understand why investors aren’t demanding his departure. He’s smart but he’s definitely not the engineering genius Tesla fanboys make him out to be. He’s just a liability these days
andy.connor.e
Member
You cant understand why investors are not demanding his departure? lol
The thing is, I think without Elon we don’t have navigate on autopilot, and maybe not even autopilot it’s self. Traffic aware cruise control yes and probably emergency lane keeping, but I don’t think we would have a system designed to actively use those two technologies all the time.
With Elon we get those, and we get FSDbeta and summon and a bunch of other projects that are rolled out in some amount of completion. We also get pressure on the other guys and get stuff like Supercruise. I honestly don’t think any of the other guys would have bothered with rolling out that technology until a vendor essentially had a fully working turn key solution for them. Even then, supercruise is available on what, three models?
But, and this is the key I think we’re seeing now, since Musk pushed these things out and blew up on YouTube, Twitter, traditional media, etc as having self driving cars, the legacy guys have had to act. I work in a pretty well educated place and I constantly have people asking me if my car can drive it’s self and what it’s like when the car is driving by it’s self. Obviously I take time to explain the limits and what it actually does, but people KNOW about the Tesla system.
Now we have super cruise and other technologies that basically do what current FSD does. (Yes it’s limited to mapped roads, but there are only so many major highways out there and just hire more people to map them, easy fix.) It’s “better” than Tesla in that you can have hands off the wheel. Tesla like to be number one and way ahead of the pack. Well they won’t be for long if super cruise shows up on the full line of GM products. I think Tesla might be scrambling to pull some of their team to AI determination of driver attention via in car camera. This might be a cheaper or more elegant solution than an IR bar... but it probably requires a huge amount more work (DeepRain anyone?). Some slow down might be because of that. Tesla may be trying to spark some new life into NOA to keep it in the front; hopefully if there is a hardware change Tesla will offer that for free to FSD owners, but I’m slightly worried since that language has been removed from the FSD sales pitch.
Second, the legacy guys are planning to have Ultra Cruise (city autonomous hands free) on the road by 2022. I get the feeling Tesla is scrambling to have the buzz remain on them. They want to have FSD on city roads firmly a Tesla thing in the minds of the general public, which means getting it out the door enough this year to win youtube, social media, and the public minds. They also need to do it in such a way that doesn’t backfire on them. Surprisingly the public will deal with a couple crashes, especially if it turns out someone was sleeping or watching a movie or something. They won’t deal with tens of crashes in the first couple months and maybe with dash cam or GoPro footage of drivers following all the rules.
I think what we’re seeing now is Tesla struggling to compete, and in Musks mind competitive is not just offering the same thing at the same time, but being way ahead, or offering way more.
I think they’re safe on the battery side if the new cells and structural battery really shows up in the next two years. That sound buy them three to five years buffer compared to the other guys again.
Software side, well they’re now only months to maybe a year ahead of the other guys. If PureVision and 4D tagging are as much of an improvement ask Musk seems to think, maybe they jumps years ahead again, but I think Musk waited too deep into development to make the big risk decision this time and we’re seeing the results of that now with slowed general software releases, even more aggressive over promising, and even slower expansion.
(I still think Tesla has the right idea. I think their system will be more capable long term, more adaptable once their designs are fully deployed, and more fun to use. I just think the pressure is being turned up now, and I’m kinda glad to see that. For as much of a software company that Tesla is, I think they still need a lot more management like a software company. I would like to see more strategic hires from Apple and other traditional software companies to help streamline releases and improve the feature pipeline so it’s maybe a little less aggressive updates, but more consistent.)
With Elon we get those, and we get FSDbeta and summon and a bunch of other projects that are rolled out in some amount of completion. We also get pressure on the other guys and get stuff like Supercruise. I honestly don’t think any of the other guys would have bothered with rolling out that technology until a vendor essentially had a fully working turn key solution for them. Even then, supercruise is available on what, three models?
But, and this is the key I think we’re seeing now, since Musk pushed these things out and blew up on YouTube, Twitter, traditional media, etc as having self driving cars, the legacy guys have had to act. I work in a pretty well educated place and I constantly have people asking me if my car can drive it’s self and what it’s like when the car is driving by it’s self. Obviously I take time to explain the limits and what it actually does, but people KNOW about the Tesla system.
Now we have super cruise and other technologies that basically do what current FSD does. (Yes it’s limited to mapped roads, but there are only so many major highways out there and just hire more people to map them, easy fix.) It’s “better” than Tesla in that you can have hands off the wheel. Tesla like to be number one and way ahead of the pack. Well they won’t be for long if super cruise shows up on the full line of GM products. I think Tesla might be scrambling to pull some of their team to AI determination of driver attention via in car camera. This might be a cheaper or more elegant solution than an IR bar... but it probably requires a huge amount more work (DeepRain anyone?). Some slow down might be because of that. Tesla may be trying to spark some new life into NOA to keep it in the front; hopefully if there is a hardware change Tesla will offer that for free to FSD owners, but I’m slightly worried since that language has been removed from the FSD sales pitch.
Second, the legacy guys are planning to have Ultra Cruise (city autonomous hands free) on the road by 2022. I get the feeling Tesla is scrambling to have the buzz remain on them. They want to have FSD on city roads firmly a Tesla thing in the minds of the general public, which means getting it out the door enough this year to win youtube, social media, and the public minds. They also need to do it in such a way that doesn’t backfire on them. Surprisingly the public will deal with a couple crashes, especially if it turns out someone was sleeping or watching a movie or something. They won’t deal with tens of crashes in the first couple months and maybe with dash cam or GoPro footage of drivers following all the rules.
I think what we’re seeing now is Tesla struggling to compete, and in Musks mind competitive is not just offering the same thing at the same time, but being way ahead, or offering way more.
I think they’re safe on the battery side if the new cells and structural battery really shows up in the next two years. That sound buy them three to five years buffer compared to the other guys again.
Software side, well they’re now only months to maybe a year ahead of the other guys. If PureVision and 4D tagging are as much of an improvement ask Musk seems to think, maybe they jumps years ahead again, but I think Musk waited too deep into development to make the big risk decision this time and we’re seeing the results of that now with slowed general software releases, even more aggressive over promising, and even slower expansion.
(I still think Tesla has the right idea. I think their system will be more capable long term, more adaptable once their designs are fully deployed, and more fun to use. I just think the pressure is being turned up now, and I’m kinda glad to see that. For as much of a software company that Tesla is, I think they still need a lot more management like a software company. I would like to see more strategic hires from Apple and other traditional software companies to help streamline releases and improve the feature pipeline so it’s maybe a little less aggressive updates, but more consistent.)
Misterbee
Member
“Constant misrepresentation”? In other words, nonstop lying? Well that’s a bit over the top, isn’t it? A leader’s aspirational vision and goal setting off of that is not lying at worst nor naive at best. Savvy investors know what they’re buying.
andy.connor.e
Member
Important key fact, is that overly aggressive timeline projections are not lies. Would be wise to understand what the estimates mean, i mean hes said it couple times.
powertoold
Active Member
True, but Elon messed this one up in many ways lol:
1) Tweets "let us know" if you want FSD beta, causing mass confusion
2) Says 8.3 has ~1000 improvements, then says 8.x isn't worth it anymore
3) Talks about adding The Button, then decides it's a bad idea on the day it's expected
4) This whole time he's been aware V9 would require the most attention and QA, yet he pushed The Button and then kept silent about it for a while
It seems like Elon got excited by FSD beta one day and decided on a whim to widen the rollout. Then after he met with the team, he started to backtrack but didn't tell us until the last day, lol.
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andy.connor.e
Member
Could it be anything to do with the recent bad press?
March 19th: Tesla's "Full Self Driving" Beta Is Just Laughably Bad and Potentially Dangerous
March 19th: Anxiety-Inducing Drone Footage Of Tesla FSD Beta Unprotected Lefts
March 18th: Tesla's Beta "Self-Driving" Software Sure Seems Heavy on the Beta
Oh here's a positive one, though does have the word "Dangerous" in the title
March 17th: Hey, NTSB, Where’s The Evidence Tesla’s FSD Beta Is Dangerous?
powertoold
Active Member
I don't think so. Elon has been consistently excited and confident about FSD for ~6 months now.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
No company is held liable for optimistic forward looking projections (you see those disclaimers all the time in filings and press releases). Why else do you think all the recent SPACs have raked in so much money? It's pretty much guaranteed none of them will meet their promised timelines (can't think of a single one that didn't have some delay).
As for investors, Elon's pretty much the sole reason why the stock is sky high right now. I'm pretty sure close to all Tesla investors want Elon at the helm as long as possible. No way the price is this high if he's out.
Pretty much this. Also, it’s very likely that a more “sane” CEO than Elon would have never gotten Tesla anywhere near as far as Elon has in the same time period, and arguably Tesla could have died entirely under someone else. Elon literally went all in a few times with Tesla (and SpaceX), putting in not just the company’s and investors’ money, but also significant chunks (almost all of it) of his own to keep Tesla going when rational thought from a les shall we say, eager, person would have been to play it safe with their own personal wealth, which very possibly would have had Tesla go under. Elon‘s great gift, more than his intelligence and engineering/programming/business sense (all of which could be arguably criticized by experts in their respective fields), that kept Tesla and SpaceX going even when things seemed hopeless, was his remarkable ability to get rich venture capitalists (most of which were friends and people he had forged connections with in college and while building and then selling his previous companies) to invest big chunks of money into seemingly insane ventures, in large part because he could sell them on his vision and the fact that he was putting up virtually all of his own money as well helped open up their wallets. Other people were smart, other people had the network, other people were rich (and many were much richer), but was there someone else who would have put himself at very serious risk of personal bankruptcy, after making hundreds of millions of dollars, for two companies that all conventional wisdom at the time said were insane and had no chance of succeeding?
So sort of a vertical tower scheme rather than a pyramid scheme. Just keep it going. Or a leaning-tower scheme, if you will.
KArnold
Active Member
As have the testers themselves through every iteration for the last 5 months.
I agree with your first sentence. But your second sounds like cutting a persons head off for steeling a candy bar....
Edgewood Dome
Member
More like 4+ years now. It’s always been a few more months. I bought it in 2016 and I’m very tired of the promises.
But there are still great features in the FSD suite that have advanced in recent years: the old Enhanced Autopilot, then Nav on AP, first with then without stalk confirmation, Summon then Smart Summon. There has been steady progress from my perspective. City Streets is already here (testing) and from my experience once something is being actively tested and tweak within that testing, fleet rollout is not far behind. Sooner rather than later.
I know, right? I mean I'm an investor and I am so angry at all of the capital gains tax I'm going to have to pay next April. I mean crap, I'll be paying more in capital gains than I've ever even made in a year before. That bastard Elon has screwed me! What a liability he is! ROFL
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