New Charity Bet: Date of first time Starship reaches orbit.

[Cosmacelf]

I think that the environmental impacts of launching a starship is worthy of a bit of study and if SpaceX did not have that going on 2 years ago they are idiots. You are talking about creating noise, heat, and light at a rate that's simply not precedented. They can't move these offshore fast enough.

They have, indeed, been studying it for quite a while. Did you read that Teslarati article?

 

[UltradoomY]

Latest info saying that Starship orbital is likely now for March of 2022...... right on time for my St.Patricks Day prediction!!1
Yay!

 

[winfield100]

Latest info saying that Starship orbital is likely now for March of 2022...... right on time for my St.Patricks Day prediction!!1
Yay!

moved to January 2022 with NET (no exact time) so you may be correct about March, so i could “road trip” in my new! MY to Boca Chica to view “real time” the launch like did for FH and ArabSat from the cape few years back.

Starship-Super Heavy (Prototype) | Starship Flight Test 1

A Starship-Super Heavy (Prototype) rocket launched with Starship Flight Test 1 from Orbital Launch Pad A, Starbase, Texas, USA on Thursday Apr 20, 2023 at 13:33 UTC.

nextspaceflight.com

 

[philw1776]

MARCH is when NASA is ready & positioned to track & observe hypersonic re-entry. Not the date (necessarily) of the 1st launch.
It is NOT a SpaceX date.
Booster 5 is well along.

 

[adiggs]

Latest info saying that Starship orbital is likely now for March of 2022...... right on time for my St.Patricks Day prediction!!1
Yay!

I think that I'm sad that my June 2022 prediction is starting to come into play. I'd like to lose out to @UltradoomY but I'm afraid that I have red tape on my side.

 

[Cosmacelf]

MARCH is when NASA is ready & positioned to track & observe hypersonic re-entry. Not the date (necessarily) of the 1st launch.
It is NOT a SpaceX date.
Booster 5 is well along.

Correct. Everyone has been misunderstanding that nasa date.

 

[EVCollies]

Oh, don't discount my 2/2/22!

 

[Nikxice]

Very interesting. The once promising 2021 launch picks are almost eliminated. The tide has shifted, giving new life to those with 2022 entry dates.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sorry Xepa777, I had to close the bet/contest after the FCC submission about the first orbital attempt became public. So the official entrants are:

e-FTW: 9/15/21
Ben W: 10/31/21
Cosmacelf: 12/1/21
dkemme: 2/22/22
UltradoomY: 3/17/22
Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

And right now, I've got to say that e-FTW is in the pole position AGAIN.

Elon's tweet today: "If all goes well, Starship will be ready for its first orbital launch attempt next month, pending regulatory approval"

Damn, Ben and I are duking it out to win!

 

[e-FTW]

Yeah, but "pending regulatory approval" may end up doing way more work than we all want in that phrase... Sadly.
Am still rooting for you @Cosmacelf !

 

[Cosmacelf]

With this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460313341520453632

It looks like the folks who bet 2022 dates will battle it out, but I still have an outside chance to win if the launch happen in early January.

 

[Cosmacelf]

With the latest FAA environmental impact report delay of 2 months post Dec 31st, I’ve just been knocked out, and these are the remaining contestants:

dkemme: 2/22/22
UltradoomY: 3/17/22
Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

 

[EVCollies]

With the latest FAA environmental impact report delay of 2 months post Dec 31st, I’ve just been knocked out, and these are the remaining contestants:

dkemme: 2/22/22
UltradoomY: 3/17/22
Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

Initially, I was hoping I would lose this bet, now I hope I am the winner.

 

[adiggs]

Initially, I was hoping I would lose this bet, now I hope I am the winner.

Why does having the furthest out date make me like my odds of winning better? And why can't I be wrong about that!?!

 

[Cosmacelf]

With the latest FAA environmental impact report delay of 2 months post Dec 31st, I’ve just been knocked out, and these are the remaining contestants:

dkemme: 2/22/22
UltradoomY: 3/17/22
Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

Oh my. Elon’s tweet today is now calling for May. Meaning we are down to three possible winners:

Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

adiggs is probably the favorite to win now.

 

[Nikxice]

Oh my. Elon’s tweet today is now calling for May. Meaning we are down to three possible winners:

Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

adiggs is probably the favorite to win now.

There's only one chance for a possible tie.... on 5/5/22. After that the math only works for me until 5/19/22. Can always hope that Elon is sandbagging the launch timeline!

 

[Electroman]

Not this year.

 

[adiggs]

Oh my. Elon’s tweet today is now calling for May. Meaning we are down to three possible winners:

Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

adiggs is probably the favorite to win now.

And to think that my entry wasn't something I considered all that serious. But hey - I've done well using my guessing methodogy - at least as measured by opportunities (and success!) at winning.

I hope I lose this one.

 

[EVCollies]

And to think that my entry wasn't something I considered all that serious. But hey - I've done well using my guessing methodogy - at least as measured by opportunities (and success!) at winning.

I hope I lose this one.

And I hoped to lose 2/2/22, and then hoped to win 2/2/22, and now hoping Grendal chooses our next donation.

 

[philw1776]

Not that SpaceX is ready to launch Starship to orbit in the next couple months but it's worth noting that FAA has again delayed environmental, etc. approval another 30 days. Originally scheduled for end December it has moved every month since to the end of the next month. The end March completion date just moved this week to end April. What's going on?