Nikxice
Active Member
Think we've always been played closest to the pin. Otherwise someone could shutdown eFTW's chances by picking September 16, 2021.
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New Charity Bet: Date of first time Starship reaches orbit.
- Thread starter Cosmacelf
- Start date
So, sure enough, SpaceX has thrown us a curveball. Their first "Orbital" flight might not actually make an orbit? Hard to tell from the FCC submission. It is a 90 minute flight, so maybe it is actually one orbit.
Actually, reading it again, it isn't one full orbit. Just shy of one orbit.
Given we've just been given more information, I'm stopping new submissions for this bet. This would affect a lot of people's perceptions of timelines.
As far as whether this almost-a-full-orbit launch should count? Any ideas? My gut tells me it should not count since the Starship could become a ballistic uncontrolled rocket after stage separation, and should that count? Starship should really demonstrate full second stage capabilities to get to orbit and then a deorbit burn to get back. This partial orbit thing could be a simpler effort.
But would be happy to hear other people's thoughts.
Actually, reading it again, it isn't one full orbit. Just shy of one orbit.
Given we've just been given more information, I'm stopping new submissions for this bet. This would affect a lot of people's perceptions of timelines.
As far as whether this almost-a-full-orbit launch should count? Any ideas? My gut tells me it should not count since the Starship could become a ballistic uncontrolled rocket after stage separation, and should that count? Starship should really demonstrate full second stage capabilities to get to orbit and then a deorbit burn to get back. This partial orbit thing could be a simpler effort.
But would be happy to hear other people's thoughts.
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I don't really consider eastbound Texas to Hawaii to be a full orbit. More like P to P the long way around. However, the required velocity is basically orbital.
I say TX to HI counts (if it were TX to somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico...I'd vote that doesn't count). That far around the earth clearly demonstrates orbital capability, and the re-entry environment will be pretty representative of coming out of orbit proper.
One could suppose that the target landing zone was picked to provide reasonable access to US territory (sorry, Hawaiians...) and also gives them a lot of room to be "wrong", both going short and going long. Its plausible the rocket is always destined for a super duper ballistic trajectory, and hucking something 90% around the earth ballistically seems like there's a pretty wide error margin.
One could suppose that the target landing zone was picked to provide reasonable access to US territory (sorry, Hawaiians...) and also gives them a lot of room to be "wrong", both going short and going long. Its plausible the rocket is always destined for a super duper ballistic trajectory, and hucking something 90% around the earth ballistically seems like there's a pretty wide error margin.
Nikxice
Active Member
I'm good with NASA's definition.
What Is an Orbit?
Excerpt, "An orbit is a regular, repeating path that one object in space takes around another one. An object in an orbit is called a satellite." It's a close call, but I can't see a legitimate Starship satellite coming from this proposed test flight.
What Is an Orbit?
Excerpt, "An orbit is a regular, repeating path that one object in space takes around another one. An object in an orbit is called a satellite." It's a close call, but I can't see a legitimate Starship satellite coming from this proposed test flight.
e-FTW
New electron smell
e-FTW
New electron smell
Or how about SpaceX’s definition from this FCC document?
So they are calling this getting to orbit. Am ok with that.
I just knew SpaceX was going to mess up the bet somehow. In my mind, I had always envisioned orbit as Starship actually circling the earth for a bit. But given that this is how they are going to test their first Starship, chances are, the second and third flights are going to be very similar. So that means we'd almost be waiting until a production version came around if we didn't allow this first one.
So, let's wait and see what kind of orbital speed and altitude this Starship reaches. If it hits a falcon 9 Starlink second stage transfer orbit speed (probably won't hit that altitude?), then we'll deem it good enough for calling it reaching orbit. Basically, we can argue, I mean, discuss it, when it happens. It isn't as if the winner of the bet means a lot (except if e-FTW wins it, then it means ... something
).
So, let's wait and see what kind of orbital speed and altitude this Starship reaches. If it hits a falcon 9 Starlink second stage transfer orbit speed (probably won't hit that altitude?), then we'll deem it good enough for calling it reaching orbit. Basically, we can argue, I mean, discuss it, when it happens. It isn't as if the winner of the bet means a lot (except if e-FTW wins it, then it means ... something
).
Ben W
Chess Grandmaster (Supervised)
I wonder if it will be placed on a ballistic trajectory to reenter, or if it will have to perform a deorbit burn. In the latter case, that obviously counts (to me) as fully orbital. In the former, if it achieves ~99% of orbital velocity, and letting the engines run for three more seconds would have gotten it there (and it had the fuel to do so), that's also close enough in my book.
Nikxice
Active Member
Since Earth orbital speed varies with altitude, we'll be relying on experts to decide if a Starship launch profile has produced the necessary Delta-v to achieve orbital velocity. I'm confident SpaceX will produce quantifiable evidence of having achieved this goal, but I'll also be interested to hear someone like Scott Manley weigh in on the numbers. This Starship orbital test still strikes me as a variant of the higher, faster, hotter testing I mentioned earlier on page 1. A Starship falling just shy of a complete circle seems to be a hybrid of the original intent of the contest, maybe better defined as P to P. I'd still prefer to fill the gap and finish the lap! 
The point of dropping it in the pacific is that dropping it near Boca Chica or Florida would have it de-orbiting over populated areas. The current orbit passes over very little land, mostly sparsely populated Africa, before the ditching.
Xepa777
Banned
Nikxice
Active Member
Any contest entry coming after 5/12/21 will have gained an edge with critical new information. Might suggest a redo, but if others aren't up to it, well that's fine too. Yesterday, in a response to Scott Manley on Twitter, Elon confirmed, "We need to make sure ship won’t break up on reentry, hence deorbit over Pacific". So that should settle the issue as to whether Starship achieves orbital velocity.
Sure was wishing for something more Sputnik-like. Could be just nostalgic for a satellite twinkling overhead in the evening sky, perhaps even making some cool beeping noises. But alas, who am I to question an 'Orbit' with regards to a 'Starship' launching out of 'Starbase City'?
Sure was wishing for something more Sputnik-like. Could be just nostalgic for a satellite twinkling overhead in the evening sky, perhaps even making some cool beeping noises. But alas, who am I to question an 'Orbit' with regards to a 'Starship' launching out of 'Starbase City'?
Sorry Xepa777, I had to close the bet/contest after the FCC submission about the first orbital attempt became public. So the official entrants are:
e-FTW: 9/15/21
Ben W: 10/31/21
Cosmacelf: 12/1/21
dkemme: 2/22/22
UltradoomY: 3/17/22
Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22
And right now, I've got to say that e-FTW is in the pole position AGAIN.
hats off to @Cosmacelf for a prescient charity bet thread. Little did you know Spacex would upstage it within days. So, why not start a new thread now? We know spacex is shooting for June22 but frankly it could be any ol day. To me if if it can go up to orbital altitude and perform a controlled descent than it has answered the major questions re heat shields, multiple engines, structural/mechanical integrity, etc. It will be a shame to not recover it. Oh well.
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