New Charity Bet: Date of first time Starship reaches orbit.

[Grendal]

Not that SpaceX is ready to launch Starship to orbit in the next couple months but it's worth noting that FAA has again delayed environmental, etc. approval another 30 days. Originally scheduled for end December it has moved every month since to the end of the next month. The end March completion date just moved this week to end April. What's going on?

Bureaucracy. Florida is a known launch site. So all the environmental reviews for there are pretty standardized. Boca Chica is an entirely new possibility for launching. There are civilians relatively close. It seems fairly easy for us looking at this from the outside. For those in the area, there are lots of questions and potential repercussions. The FCC is trying to do the impossible by making everyone happy.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Oh my. Elon’s tweet today is now calling for May. Meaning we are down to three possible winners:

Grendal: 5/4/22
Nikxice: 5/6/22
adiggs: 6/2/22

adiggs is probably the favorite to win now.

On the extended TED interview at Gigafactory Texas, Elon said he expected orbital launch attempt "in a few months". I don't think we can deny it much longer, adiggs is gonna win.

 

[adiggs]

On the extended TED interview at Gigafactory Texas, Elon said he expected orbital launch attempt "in a few months". I don't think we can deny it much longer, adiggs is gonna win.

My reading of Elon Time tea leaves proves superior!


In fairness, though it wasn't how I made my selection (my wife's birthday is proving to be, on balance, the best predictor of Elon Time and our contests), there is clearly an advantage in choosing the latest date among contestants - one gets the widest selection of winning out comes, and happens to also play into a common theme of Elon Time (tactical stuff later; strategic stuff sooner). Given price is right logic, one of the best guesses absent any actual knowledge of the contest would have been 6/3/22; the day after the furthest date selected.


For the next contest (there will be one, I am sure of that), I have a couple of suggestions. First is that predictions are for a month rather than a day. Thus June '22 rather than 6/2/22. One contestant per month - the winner guesses the month of the event.

The second is that if nobody has the correct month, then a new contest is started with new guesses, rather than last guess wins.

Heck another idea - if the number of participants is low enough and there is sufficient interest, then open up a 2nd pick to participants. Do you take 2 months back to back, or spread them out? Contest strategy decisions....

After all - picking months would also incent people to pick sooner than later before all the really good months get picked.

 

[Cosmacelf]

My reading of Elon Time tea leaves proves superior!


In fairness, though it wasn't how I made my selection (my wife's birthday is proving to be, on balance, the best predictor of Elon Time and our contests), there is clearly an advantage in choosing the latest date among contestants - one gets the widest selection of winning out comes, and happens to also play into a common theme of Elon Time (tactical stuff later; strategic stuff sooner). Given price is right logic, one of the best guesses absent any actual knowledge of the contest would have been 6/3/22; the day after the furthest date selected.


For the next contest (there will be one, I am sure of that), I have a couple of suggestions. First is that predictions are for a month rather than a day. Thus June '22 rather than 6/2/22. One contestant per month - the winner guesses the month of the event.

The second is that if nobody has the correct month, then a new contest is started with new guesses, rather than last guess wins.

Heck another idea - if the number of participants is low enough and there is sufficient interest, then open up a 2nd pick to participants. Do you take 2 months back to back, or spread them out? Contest strategy decisions....

After all - picking months would also incent people to pick sooner than later before all the really good months get picked.

Great ideas! So, while we are all here, let’s think about what the next bet could be. It would be nice if the bet would be likely to happen in 2023. My ideas:

Date when Starlink spin out as a public company is officially announced.

First successful landing of a Starship booster.

First chopstick catch of Starship.

 

[adiggs]

Date when Starlink spin out as a public company is officially announced.

I see this one as difficult for a predictions contest, as I see this as being dependent on too many details. Does Starlink spin out in its entirety to current SpaceX owners plus some new publicly traded shares / investment for Starlink?

That's good for shareholders, but bad for the mission of creating a Mars colony (no new resources for SpaceX). It would amount to selling off a chunk of SpaceX. Does SpaceX remain a significant share holder and Starlink get setup as a dividend paying enterprise, so SpaceX has a recurring income stream to help fund the mission?

These create very different target dates and logic.

First successful landing of a Starship booster.

I like this one. Easy to measure, a significant milestone along the way to Starship being cost effective (even if it goes into production prior to the first successful landing). I figure it'll happen before Starship is doing paying missions, but it doesn't HAVE to (any more than F9 HAD to have a successful landing prior to paying missions).

I suggest that a successful landing can be anything where the booster can be used again, and requires that its payload make a minimum of 2 orbits to count. Lofting a booster and landing it on a barge with no payload, or a stack of concrete that just falls into the ocean 'immediately' on its first loop doesn't count. And straight up and back doesn't count. I think that as individual tests are lined up, participants can take a vote on whether the test will count.

First chopstick catch of Starship.

Also easy to measure. Anything and everything counts - don't need to go into orbit. Don't even need very much height. A hop that goes sideways straight into the cradle with little or no incremental height would count just as much as going up 100 miles, doing the belly flop, and then being caught.


My vote on these - #2 and #3.

Sadly I have no additional (immediate) ideas for that this might be.

Other than a repeat of the current contest. It's gotta make a loop of the Earth sooner or later!

 

[EVCollies]

My reading of Elon Time tea leaves proves superior!


In fairness, though it wasn't how I made my selection (my wife's birthday is proving to be, on balance, the best predictor of Elon Time and our contests), there is clearly an advantage in choosing the latest date among contestants - one gets the widest selection of winning out comes, and happens to also play into a common theme of Elon Time (tactical stuff later; strategic stuff sooner). Given price is right logic, one of the best guesses absent any actual knowledge of the contest would have been 6/3/22; the day after the furthest date selected.


For the next contest (there will be one, I am sure of that), I have a couple of suggestions. First is that predictions are for a month rather than a day. Thus June '22 rather than 6/2/22. One contestant per month - the winner guesses the month of the event.

The second is that if nobody has the correct month, then a new contest is started with new guesses, rather than last guess wins.

Heck another idea - if the number of participants is low enough and there is sufficient interest, then open up a 2nd pick to participants. Do you take 2 months back to back, or spread them out? Contest strategy decisions....

After all - picking months would also incent people to pick sooner than later before all the really good months get picked.

Much better than my 2/22/22 tea leaves...

@adiggs has some great ideas for the next bet but still deserves to define our mutual donations when SS orbits.

 

[adiggs]

Much better than my 2/22/22 tea leaves...

@adiggs has some great ideas for the next bet but still deserves to define our mutual donations when SS orbits.

I'll name a charity once we have a winner. It's theoretically possible for a couple of others to win

 

[Nikxice]

Congratulations to @adiggs! Today (5/6/22) was supposed to be the first successful launch of an orbital Starship. Apparently Elon and the FAA didn't get the memo. Technically, I have up until 5/19, but we all know that ain't gonna happen. adiggs, feel free to name your charity.

Thoughts for future contests. Addressing the edge given to a last date entry.... Take the spread of days between the last two entry dates, divide that number by 2, then add those additional number of days to the last entry date. If the contest is not won by the extended date, permit a reset with all new entries.... Perhaps too complicated?...Citing our present contest, adiggs would have earned an additional 13 days, out to 6/15/22, before a reset would kick in.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yeah, with the FAA’s latest delay, @adiggs has won. And as the person who started this particular rather fizzled out charity bet, I also nominate adiggs to start up another one since he had great ideas on how to structure it.

 

[adiggs]

Congratulations to @adiggs! Today (5/6/22) was supposed to be the first successful launch of an orbital Starship. Apparently Elon and the FAA didn't get the memo. Technically, I have up until 5/19, but we all know that ain't gonna happen. adiggs, feel free to name your charity.

Thoughts for future contests. Addressing the edge given to a last date entry.... Take the spread of days between the last two entry dates, divide that number by 2, then add those additional number of days to the last entry date. If the contest is not won by the extended date, permit a reset with all new entries.... Perhaps too complicated?...Citing our present contest, adiggs would have earned an additional 13 days, out to 6/15/22, before a reset would kick in.

And I name ...
The Clatskanie Feral Cat Project and kitten rescue. Donation options here. (scroll way down the page to find the avenues to make donations - they actually make it somewhat difficult to find).

Because .. .cats


Something I learned late last year, after donating to charities large and small, was that I got the most personal reward for making a large (for the charity) donation to a small charity (this one in fact). Clatskanie is a small town in Oregon with a few passionate volunteers working to reduce the feral cat population in the area. I like supporting people with a passion, on a mission. And my wife and I are cat people, so .. cats.

A bit more on the organization.

 

[adiggs]

Congratulations to @adiggs! Today (5/6/22) was supposed to be the first successful launch of an orbital Starship. Apparently Elon and the FAA didn't get the memo. Technically, I have up until 5/19, but we all know that ain't gonna happen. adiggs, feel free to name your charity.

Thoughts for future contests. Addressing the edge given to a last date entry.... Take the spread of days between the last two entry dates, divide that number by 2, then add those additional number of days to the last entry date. If the contest is not won by the extended date, permit a reset with all new entries.... Perhaps too complicated?...Citing our present contest, adiggs would have earned an additional 13 days, out to 6/15/22, before a reset would kick in.

Yeah, with the FAA’s latest delay, @adiggs has won. And as the person who started this particular rather fizzled out charity bet, I also nominate adiggs to start up another one since he had great ideas on how to structure it.

We'll need to jointly identify a good next item to bet on (it could even be a repeat of this one!). FAA environment review and license might be the most important next milestone, but that sounds like betting on bureaucracy. I think that ranks right up there with a paint drying contest.


For the terms and conditions - I don't like Price is Right rules, even if it got me this win. Given something like space (space is hard) then there is a good chance that the best date is always the longest date picked so far, + 1. Ugh.

My suggestion is that we each choose a month and year, and the month and year in which the event occurs determines the winner (none of this "closest" stuff). For the current bet there would have only been 1 May '22 contestant, and my June '22 choice would most likely also not be a winner.

Winner must select the Month and Year correctly. In order to account for a wide range of Months and Years, and not enough participants to have a selection for all of them, I'm also thinking that after participants each stake out an initial position, then we'll have a 2nd / 3rd / ... round to select Month / Year combos for those that staked out a position in round 1. We can also choose a final Month/Year after Round 1 so that all of the later choices fit somewhere in the range (as long as the even occurs before the final Month/Year, then we'll have a winner).

For the particularly popular guesses, there is benefit in being first to post.


Question to mods: if we can change the name of a thread, then I'll start a new thread for discussing the topic for the next charity bet along with the rules. Once we settle on the topic, then we'll update the thread name to reflect what we're betting on.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Good ideas. Frankly, all we have to do is to “advertise” this bet on the Tesla daily investor thread and we’d have two years of guesses filled up pronto. As for the next subject, I’m leaning towards first booster landing.

Dont forget to tell us the charity we all have to give $50 to for your win.

 

[adiggs]

Good ideas. Frankly, all we have to do is to “advertise” this bet on the Tesla daily investor thread and we’d have two years of guesses filled up pronto. As for the next subject, I’m leaning towards first booster landing.

Dont forget to tell us the charity we all have to give $50 to for your win.

Good point - I like advertising to the wider investing audience better than multiple rounds. That'll get us some fresh meat .. err .. new participants here in the forum

Go up a couple or 3 posts - Clatskanie Feral Cat Project and kitten rescue.

 

[EVCollies]

Oh you cat people, cat food sent to Oregon.

I prefer a bet over a lottery but will participate in anything that diverts my thoughts from stark reality.

 

[Grendal]

$50 sent. Congratulations!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just sent in my $50. My accountant is now going to say WTF when he does my taxes next year, so thanks for that .

Hey guys, THREE new charity bets are now active. Get your bets in now while choice months are available:

Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)

This is a re-run of the Charity bet #2 which is/was to predict when the first time Starship will orbit the earth. All participants must pinky swear they will donate $50 to the winner's chosen charity (to be chosen at time of winning). I am slightly modifying this bet rerun. The upcoming...

teslamotorsclub.com

Charity bet #4: First Successful Starship Landing

A discussion thread to figure out what our next charity bet regarding Starship progress will be, along with any updates to how we conduct and judge the bet. As the winner of bet #3 I get to start this discussion. My primary contribution is the mechanics side. What the bet itself will be -...

teslamotorsclub.com

Charity bet #5: First Starship Booster Intact Landing

New charity bet to select the month/year when SpaceX will land a Starship BOOSTER, intact on the ground (or ocean platform), such that it could be reflown if they chose to do so. All participants must pinky swear they will donate $50 to the winner's chosen charity (to be chosen at time of...

teslamotorsclub.com