New FSD details

[Kant.Ing]

With FSD features now partially fulfilled, there must also exist an incentive for Tesla to start upgrading HW2.x cars with HW3 parts.

Need new shadow mode data because those old HW2.x database cannot be used for HW3?
Need more beta testers since FSD is feature completed, really?
nVidia parts are end of life and they want to consolidate the support?
Make the cars more energy efficient for the lowered power consumption of HW3?
HW4 is still 3 years away, so better do it now to keep leading the industry?

 

[BinaryField]

Unfortunately until a HW3 retrofit is performed all of this who-will-get-upgraded discussion is just conjecture. It's fun, exposes the issues for sure but I hope no one thinks they know the answer yet.

I don't think that anyone claims certainty, but recent behaviour by Tesla really shouldn't give any reason to trust them.

 

[alcibiades]

They have HW3 but they claim that they can't put it into HW2 cars that need ECU replacements.

 

[PhilDavid]

so what happens if you buy a used tesla s that has hw2 and fsd already purchased for the car?

would that qualify for the eventual hw3 upgrade?

also "beta program" qualification?

Of course it would, as the features are tied to the car. The car was sold with FSD-upgrade capable HW 2 so if HW 3 is needed to be FSD capable, you should be able to obtain that but you might possibly be asked to pay for the additional FSD features.

 

[mongo]

I don't think that the shareholders will be happy to hear this.

I, as an investor, disagree. Tesla's mission statement is not about making money. That does not mean they don't build value. It also doesn't mean they won't make money (Musk's comment about being a real company), but not everything needs to be a profit center.

In terms of profit though, Tesla used to only make a little over 100k cars a year. Now they on track for 300k-400k+. Assuming the same sort of take rate on EAP, they can cut the price in half and still bring in 50 to 100% more revenue.

 

[mongo]

They have HW3 but they claim that they can't put it into HW2 cars that need ECU replacements.

Makes sense, no reason to make a compatible SW version until they are close to release. Along with the OTA variants needed.

 

[ahkahn]

I, as an investor, disagree. Tesla's mission statement is not about making money. That does not mean they don't build value. It also doesn't mean they won't make money (Musk's comment about being a real company), but not everything needs to be a profit center.

In terms of profit though, Tesla used to only make a little over 100k cars a year. Now they on track for 300k-400k+. Assuming the same sort of take rate on EAP, they can cut the price in half and still bring in 50 to 100% more revenue.

Agreed. Not only that, but I'm guessing they are either testing the pricing sweet spot, or maybe already have and are reacting to the pricing sweet spot of the software packages. FSD has been vaporware thus far, and now that they feel confident they'll release it soon, they are pricing it to start selling. At 11k or whatever pricing it has been at, perhaps only a small percentage have signed up for it. Now it is an easy and palatable upgrade for those have passed on it previously, as well as an easy add-on for those who are purchasing new cars. I'm curious how this will pad future profit margins.

 

[azmodls]

...Also, Tesla said from the beginning (on the FSD order page) that FSD would (future tense) drive you from A to B and eventually come pick you up across town but they could not promise when the features would be available. ...

Actually back in late 2016 when FSD was 1st offered the order page said it would be available by end of 2017 and EAP by end of December 2016. They eventually dropped those statements and later lost a lawsuit over it.

 

[alcibiades]

Makes sense, no reason to make a compatible SW version until they are close to release. Along with the OTA variants needed.

They could make a beta version.

Beta version.

Get it?

LOL

 

[mongo]

Actually back in late 2016 when FSD was 1st offered the order page said it would be available by end of 2017 and EAP by end of December 2016. They eventually dropped those statements and later lost a lawsuit over it.

I know of only one suit that was settled. That was for the time period after the MobilEye split when AP2 had fewer (no) features that AP1 did. It there another one?

 

[azmodls]

I know of only one suit that was settled. That was for the time period after the MobilEye split when AP2 had fewer (no) features that AP1 did. It there another one?

That is what I was referring to. I purchased Nov 2016 when AP2 hardware was released and they made these claims. I got a check from that lawsuit.

 

[fbitz777]

That is what I was referring to. I purchased Nov 2016 when AP2 hardware was released and they made these claims. I got a check from that lawsuit.

Me too...funny that the check $$$ depended on how long since you had bought the car and not received the features.

Maybe next lawsuit will be around FSD and we get another check?

 

[pears]

Has the option to upgrade FSD (when you have EAP) disappeared from anyone else's account page?

 

[diplomat33]

Has the option to upgrade FSD (when you have EAP) disappeared from anyone else's account page?

No, but my option to upgrade to FSD did disappear when I purchased it. Maybe Tesla gave you FSD for free? Check your car details on your account page to see if it shows your car having FSD.

 

[303JeffB]

Has the option to upgrade FSD (when you have EAP) disappeared from anyone else's account page?

Yes - mine has been gone for a long time...

 

[pears]

Weird, the option does appear to be back now (still at $3k).

 

[KyleDay]

Yes - mine has been gone for a long time...

Mine just disappeared today

 

[dbldwn02]

Tesla updates self-driving language, creates confusion and walks back features

“All new Tesla cars come standard with advanced hardware capable of providing Autopilot features today, and full self-driving capabilities in the future—through software updates designed to improve functionality over time.”

Here is the original definition of FSD...

Here is the current version saying all new cars have the hardware required for FSD "in almost all circumstances". Really? They all have HW3.0 which is what is required??? Really?

 

[powaking]

My account now shows FSD can be purchased for $2000. Up until a couple of hours ago it was showing $3000.

 

[DinoJuice]

Tesla updates self-driving language, creates confusion and walks back features

Here is the current version saying all new cars have the hardware required for FSD "in almost all circumstances". Really? They all have HW3.0 which is what is required??? Really?

So if we're adding to the rumor mill, go pay attention to the very last Q&A on the now infamous "35k Model 3" call...

Elon: "Will there be autopilot upgrades? umm. uhhh.yea umm uhh The only upgrade that's sort of happening in realtime is the HW3 autopilot computer -- but this is essentially invisible to the user. The features don't require the HW3 autopilot. umm yeah"