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New Model S with AP2

Discussion in 'Model S' started by NicB72, Dec 13, 2016.

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  1. NicB72

    NicB72 Supporting Member

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    Just picked up my new model s with AP2 and not seeing anything under driver assistance beyond speed warning ?

    Thought I would see some of the other features now. I know the features are slowly being rolled out but lane assist and adaptive cruise control I thought was there immediately ??
     
  2. martinicus

    martinicus Member

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    Be patient. Enjoy your car. You have amazing hardware. The software will be rolled out when it's ready. And starting soon.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. rory breaker

    rory breaker Member

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    The dude asked for an answer on if these features should be available now or if they are in fact not available now and coming out in a future SW release. An answer, not a pat on the head ;)
     
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  4. sdorn

    sdorn Director of Awesome

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    My understanding is that only basic cruise control is available now. A recent update enabled a couple things like auto headlights but the rest is TBD. There are lots of threads on here talking about those issues.
     
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  5. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    • Helpful x 2
  6. NicB72

    NicB72 Supporting Member

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    Thanks all, yep just got confirmation from delivery person that its just that and the other stuff from yesterdays update will reach me soon.
    Loving it already. Pain picking it up in the dark though, I want to see the car in the light :)
     
  7. Drone Flyer

    Drone Flyer Member

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    Playing the Devil's advocate here and not trying to undermine your decision to get AP 2.0, but I personally believe it will be years before the full extent of AP 2 will be unleashed thanks to government bureaucracy. Heck, we can't even drive AP 1.0 for more than a few minutes without having to touch the steering wheel.
    AP 2.0 will be the same.
    For all intents and purposes, AP 2 will be no different than AP 1.0 for 10 years. The only exceptions being more cameras for better monitoring etc but permission to drive with full autonomy while driving? Only in your dreams!
     
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  8. NicB72

    NicB72 Supporting Member

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    I think it might be quicker than 10yrs but I do agree it will take time. I delayed my order a month or so and got the new stuff simply as I think it will help down the line (rather than today).

    Whichever model S we all go with AP2 or AP1 it doesn't really matter, the car is still awesome.
    Cheers
     
  9. ev-now

    ev-now Member

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    Bill Gates: We over-estimate what is possible in 2 years and under-estimate what is possible in ten.
    The government (here in the US at least) is credited with trying to push automated driving in attempt to reduce avoidable driving related deaths. So perhaps they won't get in the way as much as you think. But I do think that selling a vehicle today with FSD is a bit rich when the bar for such capability has not yet been set in any safety standard.

    OP: Enjoy the car, it's great without AP - hopefully AP 2.0 will deliver on it's promises (whatever they might be now or in the future - sometimes the promises change a little between inception and delivery).
     
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  10. George Jetson

    George Jetson Member

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    You might want to rethink that timeline... Michigan approves cars without drivers or steering wheels on its roads
     
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  11. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    I think you meant 10 days, right?

    RT
     
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  12. AvengerBB

    AvengerBB Member

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    There is a big difference between the AP2 EAP rollout and Full Self Driving. You don't know whether the OP even chose the self driving option. Regardless, it's a safe bet AP2 (EAP) will quickly surpass AP1 in features - self driving is years down the road.
     
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  13. Drone Flyer

    Drone Flyer Member

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    Yes, I agree.
     
  14. Drone Flyer

    Drone Flyer Member

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    No, 10 Years!
     
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  15. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    I think driver-present self-driving will be released within a year and won't require any change in regulations but driverless self-driving might take a few years. Elon said the following:

    You can listen here after 6:20
     
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  16. NicB72

    NicB72 Supporting Member

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    I got Enhanced Auto Pilot. I will pay for the full autonomous when its proven, the hardware I have means its just an online purchase :)
     
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  17. ev-now

    ev-now Member

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    Rule of thumb for software development 1 unit of effort for internal demonstration, 2-3 units of effort for external demonstration, 10 units of effort for production. I'd love to see as many flawed human drivers replaced by computers as possible, as soon as possible (myself included - a focused AI can exceed a general purpose system - human- in it's trained realm without question) . I just think the sensors are not there yet, and there is a depth to the last 5-10% of the task which will prove much harder than believed today.

    I still think back to Gates confidently talking about speech interfaces to the PC.

    Bill Gates, 7 October 1997: “What I am saying is that I’m optimistic enough to believe that within the next decade, we will see progress to a level that for things like dealing with data in a spreadsheet or text in a word processor, or navigating the Internet, you will find the speech interface has enough accuracy that it becomes a primary way of interacting with the machine.”

    Bill Gates, 16 November 1997: “I talked about some recent advances that really have me excited. Here are some that are literally within the next few years. Speech recognition. A big, big breakthrough.”

    We're getting there now with speech recognition (barely as a primary interface) after twenty years, almost a decade later than predicted. I think some of the issues are very similar. Just as we humans are able to interpret imperfect speech signals sent to us by other humans through experience, inference and visual clues - we apply our depth of experience outside of driving per see to interpret the world we see as we drive.

    Take a child playing ball by the road. We all know there is a risk the ball will bounce in the road, and the child might follow it - so are likely to be more cautious (if we are observant and not distracted) . For the car to process that it's simply a matter of teaching it to recognize the child (vs adult), the ball (in motion) and infer there is increased risk of a sudden change of direction of that 'object' by the road. This is just one of a zillion examples of how we apply 'deep understanding' of clues outside of the specialist activity of driving to our driving experience. The advantage of an AI is that it can learn from everyone's experience, so it can learn faster - but I think the depth of learning it needs is likely grossly under-estimated at this point.

    Just as 99% uptime for a computer sounds great until you realize that's more than 3.5 days downtime per year (hopefully not for an online retailer at Christmas)! 99% driving accuracy leaves a lot of 'casualties' in the time it takes to achieve the last 1% of accuracy (let alone the last 5%-10% which is the range of deep complexity I suspect will be tripping it up).

    Given FSD requires constant supervision - what's the point? More importantly we have already seen some of the results of a much less capable AI 'driving' for people who chose to pass more responsibility to the AI than it was designed to have. This will be compounded by greater capability in the AI. "Dave, there might be a problem ..." is likely to be too late for the person reading Facebook, watching YouTube or replying to a text as the self-driving car decides it needs help.
     
    • Informative x 1
  18. Meursault

    Meursault Member

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    I traded in my 2014 85D for a 90D with AP2 last week. Funny to realize now how reliant I was on the AP1 especially during the traffic laden trips to and from my office (downtown Chicago). I did not think I would miss it that much in the short term, but wow, was I spoiled (and wrong). In the coming weeks I am taking several long distance road trips and so what do we think the odds will be that we will get another firmware update that gets AP2 closer to AP1? I thought I read somewhere that there was a target of mid-December, but maybe that was the firmware update we just recently had that added the auto lights...? Maybe a holiday/New Years gift from Elon?!
     
  19. HX_Guy

    HX_Guy Member

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    Tesla's website (Design Studio) says "December 2016" for the full EAP features, however it does say "Subject to regulatory approval".

    "Tesla's Enhanced Autopilot software is expected to complete validation and be rolled out to your car via over-the-air update in December 2016, subject to regulatory approval."
     
  20. Drone Flyer

    Drone Flyer Member

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    If you're hoping for complete self driving, I'm afraid you will have to wait 10 years for it to become legal.
    There are too many obstacles in the way for jurisdictions to ok this. Sorry to rain on your parade.
     
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