New Roadster Goodies for 2014

[JRP3]

As a stock holder I don't want Tesla using customer cars as test beds. That's a potential disaster waiting to happen. If they put a cell in a customer car all testing is done and they are 100% confident in the technology. If they do use a higher density cell than the S is currently using it will still not be the Model 3 cell. I don't expect Tesla to use a higher energy dense cell than what they would use in the Model S and X being sold at the same point in time. Just think of the press and revenue boost if they have a more dense cell that can extend the range of the S and the X, why wouldn't they use it in those vehicles? So until we see a more energy dense cell in the S and/or X I would not expect to see it in the Roadster upgrade pack.

 

[dhrivnak]

Elon has said many times that battery chemistry is improving about 7% a year. To improve the chemistry MUST change. Most if this is tweaking to the chemistry of the cells. I am not talking experimental, but I am talking about newer and better. I really hope they are not planning to use the 3 year old technology. Am I correct you would never want an I phone with a 3 year old processor or memory?

 

[Grendal]

As a stock holder I don't want Tesla using customer cars as test beds. That's a potential disaster waiting to happen. If they put a cell in a customer car all testing is done and they are 100% confident in the technology. If they do use a higher density cell than the S is currently using it will still not be the Model 3 cell. I don't expect Tesla to use a higher energy dense cell than what they would use in the Model S and X being sold at the same point in time. Just think of the press and revenue boost if they have a more dense cell that can extend the range of the S and the X, why wouldn't they use it in those vehicles? So until we see a more energy dense cell in the S and/or X I would not expect to see it in the Roadster upgrade pack.

I take it back. You are correct. Elon said that part of the improvement for the Model III battery is that it will use a different form factor from the 18650. I expect whatever battery they use for the new Roadster pack it will still be an 18650 form factor. Therefore it cannot be the Model III battery. It could still use the same chemistry however. Which would be a 100% confident thoroughly tested chemistry that is in advance of the current Model S battery. Or it could be the current Model S cells since you point out that the numbers work. If they use a more advanced cell for the Roadster, then I would expect there to be an announcement for an advanced pack available for the Model S soon after as well. Either way, I will be happy as a bystander since it just shows that Tesla is trying to be as cutting edge as possible.

 

[JRP3]

Elon has said many times that battery chemistry is improving about 7% a year. To improve the chemistry MUST change. Most if this is tweaking to the chemistry of the cells. I am not talking experimental, but I am talking about newer and better. I really hope they are not planning to use the 3 year old technology. Am I correct you would never want an I phone with a 3 year old processor or memory?

Anyone buying a brand new Model S today is buying 3 year old technology, and will be for at least the foreseeable future. EV's are not smart phones and batteries are not processors. Chemistry improves on an average over time of about 7% a year, but it's not necessarily linear every year. As I said it's all about timing, if they offer the upgrade anytime soon I'm pretty sure it will be with existing cells currently used in the Model S. If it's not coming out till well into next year then there may be a chance of a more dense cell, but I would expect to see it in one of their other vehicles first. I'd be quite happy to be wrong of course but I'm just trying to keep expectations in line.

 

[djp]

400 Mile Pack (Was New Roadster Goodies for 2014)

As a stock holder I don't want Tesla using customer cars as test beds. That's a potential disaster waiting to happen. If they put a cell in a customer car all testing is done and they are 100% confident in the technology.

I think I'm reading the word "testing" differently than you. I agree Tesla wouldn't use experimental cells in the new Roadster pack. I expect they'd do internal lab tests and on-the-road testing with their own mules to gain 100% confidence before releasing the cells to customers. But even after doing that, it would still make sense to do a limited pilot with Roadster owners to gather more field data before fully committing to Model X/3.

The numbers come up short if the current Model S cells are used for the pack upgrade. There has been some analyst speculation that the Model X will use cells with 10% more capacity than Model S - I think these would be a good candidate for the pack upgrade.

 

[JRP3]

Any cell used in the next year or so will not be the cell going into the 3. If they do put a newer cell in the Roadster pack it's not to collect more data, since they will have all they need. What more data do you think Roadster owners will be able to give Tesla in a few months or so of driving that they haven't already gotten? If a cell is ready to go into a vehicle now they've already put far more cycles and miles on it in much more severe conditions than a Roadster driver will do in a year.

 

[JST]

Hardware cost, perhaps. But factor in engineering time and validation? No.

You certainly have more visibility into these things than most of us, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were 1 or 2 old Roadsters that Tesla had *already* been experimenting with adding supercharger capability to.

Put it this way--if you were Elon (or any of the other higher ups), wouldn't you want a Roadster that could supercharge? I know I would.

And we know, at a minimum, that there's a Roadster with a Model S charge port, right? I know that doesn't mean it can supercharge, but it shows that people at Tesla are still playing around with the Roadster.

 

[PokerBroker]

Following this is getting exhausting... Tesla will be using Model S cells in the new Roadster pack.

 

[WarpedOne]

They might also dump the battery altogether and offer a V6 running on methanol!
Or they might go hybrid and offer a REX!

They have countless *technically possible* options. But they are into it for the money and they have to choose options with highest Performance per given Price while Price still being low enough:
a) Use current cells that go in to current MS packs - anything else is more expensive, harder to source and harder to support in the future
b) Change charging port with MS charging port

Remember, tesla dropped two colors to reduce production variations. Going with a and b above, they will reduce complexity of support.
You bring in broken roadster, they fix it in a way that in the future they will be able to use same parts as with Model S. Profit.

Supercharging would be cool but there is about 1000 potential buyers of that $2000 option. 2M income - 1M development = 1M profit. It boils down to weather tesla has more pressing issues for those engineers to solve as soon as possible. Delayed X says yes, GF growing says yes, M3 says yes. Future MS developments says yes.

Face it - Roadster is obsolete product. They need to update it to lower the cost of its support.

 

[hockeythug]

Yep.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/548257415536594944

 

[bonnie]

For those who don't want to follow the link:

 

[hockeythug]

Thanks Bonnie.

 

[dhrivnak]

AWESOME. Now the $64,000 question, what is the cost. If affordable this could definitely move the stock along with making many Roadster owners very happy.

 

[Chickenlittle]

AWESOME. Now the $64,000 question, what is the cost. If affordable this could definitely move the stock along with making many Roadster owners very happy.

I think your vision is limited. I once thought the upgrade would be using model s cells in space of the roadster battery but the fact that this will lead to model s upgrade in future implies new cell. Question size or solution or anode material but probable higher density energy. The roadster will lead the way as it did in the past. It will be used to prove the technology. A cheap way for tesla to get experience in the field without putting new cars out there

 

[Canuck]

AWESOME. Now the $64,000 question, what is the cost. If affordable this could definitely move the stock along with making many Roadster owners very happy.

My guess: It's 4 times the size of the Leaf's replacement which is $5k plus trade-in (and that's subsidized by Nissan since they lose money at that cost) -- that makes my guess $20k plus trade-in for this pack. Tesla will probably break even at that price.

I don't see this announcement as having any effect at all on stock price. There's not enough Roadsters out there in the first place that even if they did make money on it, the amount of people who will do this is very limited. It is great for the "goodwill" of the company though.

 

[dhrivnak]

I don't see this announcement as having any effect at all on stock price. There's not enough Roadsters out there in the first place that even if they did make money on it, the amount of people who will do this is very limited. It is great for the "goodwill" of the company though.

I do not agree. I have shown my car A LOT at many car shows, and the battery comes up in most every discussion. Showing that EV's can not only be maintained into the future, but IMPROVED upon will be very helpful. This is where the price is important. If the price is in the ball-park of the existing battery $42K then most people will say forget it as that will buy enough gasoline to drive 250,000 miles. If priced under $20K then I think it will get people's attention. Many cars now go over 200,000 miles and it is easy to find 50 year old cars still on the road. Can an EV compete here? I think it can but most feel the jury is out.

 

[FANGO]

400 Mile Pack (Was New Roadster Goodies for 2014)

AWESOME. Now the $64,000 question, what is the cost. If affordable this could definitely move the stock along with making many Roadster owners very happy.

I think a hint to the cost is included in your comment (give or take about 50%). I will be surprised if it's under 30k, very surprised under 20k.

If anyone would like to go halfsies on a pack I'll do it. Tesla, please let us buy half of one and make the car better.

 

[smorgasbord]

Given the short life span of previous Roadster upgrade availability, I'm wondering whether I need to jump on this even tho my battery is in fine shape. The extra range would be handy a couple times a year for me.

 

[JRP3]

I think your vision is limited. I once thought the upgrade would be using model s cells in space of the roadster battery but the fact that this will lead to model s upgrade in future implies new cell. Question size or solution or anode material but probable higher density energy. The roadster will lead the way as it did in the past. It will be used to prove the technology. A cheap way for tesla to get experience in the field without putting new cars out there

You might want to read back a number of posts as to why this is unlikely, reinforced by Elon's second tweet.

Should mention that a battery pack upgrade is not coming soon for the Model S, but it obviously *will* happen long-term.

If they had more energy dense cells ready for prime time now they'd put them in the S, offering a longer range version, and raking in a lot more money. It's not happening because they don't have next gen cells ready yet.

 

[bonnie]

Given the short life span of previous Roadster upgrade availability, I'm wondering whether I need to jump on this even tho my battery is in fine shape. The extra range would be handy a couple times a year for me.

I thought about that - but they will need to be able to continue to offer battery replacements. I think the odds are high that this upgrade will stick around. My plan is to wait, but the idea of that extra range is very tempting.