TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

New Superchargers for 2014

Discussion in 'Charging Standards and Infrastructure' started by Kevin Harney, May 28, 2014.

  1. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2008
    Messages:
    2,052
    Location:
    Herndon, VA
    According to TM maps and predictions we should be just over 200 (206 if I counted right) by the end of the year in the US. That is, on average, 1 every 2 days for the rest of the year. Possible ?!?!?! Likely ?!?!?! Goal way to lofty ?!?!?! Thoughts ?
     
  2. green1

    green1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Messages:
    4,105
    Location:
    Calgary, Alberta, Canada
    As a Canadian, a country where there are currently ZERO superchargers despite several revised estimates, I put very little stock in their future predictions on chargers...
    As for "possible?" yes, definitely, it's not like they are limited to one person installing them, they could easily turn up 200 if they want to.
     
  3. Chipper

    Chipper Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2013
    Messages:
    1,182
    Location:
    Chattanooga, TN
    As much as I would like to see it, I would place a money bet on NOT! (And I am not a betting man.)
     
  4. ThosEM

    ThosEM Space Weatherman

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2013
    Messages:
    610
    Location:
    Annapolis, MD
    Can you comment on the SunCountry chargers in Canada? I gather they are Level 2 AC chargers on J1772 plugs? So even if they are rated 90A, we get 10kW or 20 kW depending on one or two chargers on board the car, correct?

    The SunCountry web pages suggest that Tesla Model S are very welcome, but it doesn't sound like they have gone beyond what I describe above. Any more detailed info would be much appreciated.
     
  5. green1

    green1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Messages:
    4,105
    Location:
    Calgary, Alberta, Canada
    The SunCountry chargers are great, and they do have some rated as high as 100A (so about 80A useable) however there are also lots of 60A ones around (useable 50A) And that's as high as charging gets in Canada without either a supercharger (none yet) or a chademo adapter (not available yet)

    SunCountry has done a great job of energizing large portions of Canada's population, but don't expect to recharge any useful amount over coffee.
     
  6. Larry Chanin

    Larry Chanin Model S Perf Sig 1055

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2011
    Messages:
    4,282
    Location:
    Sarasota, Florida
    Hi Kevin,

    Although I doubt that Tesla will be able to average one Supercharger Station every two days for the balance of the year, I would rather that they have ambitious goals even if it turns out they are missed.

    Tesla continues to ramp up production and with the advent of Gen III, if they are successful in meeting production targets, the number of vehicles produced annually will increase by more than an order of magnitude. This of course means that with the passage of time that Tesla will have to ramp up the roll-out of Supercharger stations, and probably destination charging as well, in a non-linear manner inorder to avoid serious congestion at Supercharger Stations.

    Larry
     
  7. Larry Chanin

    Larry Chanin Model S Perf Sig 1055

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2011
    Messages:
    4,282
    Location:
    Sarasota, Florida
    #7 Larry Chanin, May 28, 2014
    Last edited: May 28, 2014
    The Sun Country Highway website is a bit vague. However, one of their executives informs me that they just launched their US expansion in winter of this year with the goal to 'Green 90% of America's Highways' by end of 2015. I assume that means that they intend to install their 60 and 100 amp chargers on 90% of major US highways by 2015.

    In 2014, their goal is to extend their network to the states of Washington, California, and Oregon, as well as linking important corridors including the eastern seaboard, expanding from Florida to Maine and into Canada. They consider Orlando an important location and plan to continue to build from an initial Best Western property (where they currently have two CS-100s) to offer publicly accessible charging that is simple to use, no cards, and free for the visitor to the property.

    They state that are working with several electric vehicle associations and owner's groups across North America. They have a sponsorship program where a person or business sponsors a charger and their implementation team goes to work locating a host location(s), facilitating the installation (paid by the host) and ensures the charging station is installed and commissioned.

    It would appear that Tesla is not the only company that has ambitious goals. :wink:


    In answer to your question, you are correct even if you are plugged into a high capacity level 2 charger capable of delivering 20 kW, your actual charge rate will be limited to the capacity of your on-board charger(s). Currently most public AC chargers are capable of 6.6 kW or about 30 amps. A Model S with one on-board charger plugged into a high capacity charger (capable of between 50 to 80 continuous amps) would be able to charge at 40 amps, or about 10 amps more than a typical public charger. A Model S with dual on-board chargers would be capable of charging at between 50 and 80 amps depending on the capacity of the high capacity charger.

    Larry
     
  8. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2009
    Messages:
    5,062
    Location:
    Colorado
    Although I would love to see over 200 Superchargers in North America by the end of 2014, it just does not look like it's going to happen...

    We will be lucky to have 100 by the end of June. That leaves another 100 to do in the six months, July to December. That is a rate of about 17 a month! Even though there have been claims, and occasional reality of 3-week construction cycles, a 1-month construction time is probably more realistic, perhaps a little optimistic. That means to meet the 200 goal, there should be 17 Superchargers under construction, and more than that in the permitting process at any one time.

    Looking at Supercharger.info, there are currently 7 Superchargers under construction and 11 in the permitting process. That is about half of what's needed. Either Tesla has to step up the pace, or it looks more like 150 North American Superchargers by the end of 2014.
     
  9. airj1012

    airj1012 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2013
    Messages:
    1,096
    Location:
    Atlanta, Georgia, United States
    Completely agree!
     
  10. David99

    David99 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2014
    Messages:
    2,048
    Location:
    Brea, Orange County
    I remember Elon saying at the shareholder meeting that there is no money restrains. He told them, spend the money (on building them) as fast as you can. But opening one every 2 days from now on seems unlikely. I hope I'm wrong by the end of the year.
     
  11. Enadler

    Enadler Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2012
    Messages:
    352
    Location:
    Westchester, NY
    Unfortunately this is one area where Tesla consistently over promises and under delivers. There are still unbuilt superchargers that were on the original Summer 2013 map! I agree I think we will be lucky to see 150 by then end of the year.
     
  12. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    10,316
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    They'll get there. Better to set ambitious goals and meet them...eventually, then set a low bar.

    Five years from now when Superchargers will be ubiquitous we will all take them for granted and they will not be a topic of so much constant conversation.
     
  13. Enadler

    Enadler Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2012
    Messages:
    352
    Location:
    Westchester, NY
    True... but that is easy for you to say living in California. You can travel via SC almost anywhere you would like. Here in the northeast and in many other areas we are do not have as many options.
     
  14. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2009
    Messages:
    5,062
    Location:
    Colorado
    If the limitation is not money, which is easy to agree with, then what is the limitation?

    First of all, the money: Tesla is shipping something like 3,000 MS's a month at a conservative average retail of $80k, that is $240M gross per month. If you are going for a world wide install rate of 25 Superchargers per month at $150k each, that is a cash outlay of $3.75M per month, or 1.56%. However, on the profit line, it would be easy to argue a lifetime of 10 years for a supercharger; with 10 year amortization, that turns into an effect to the profit of each MS of 0.156%. That can easily be justified to support marketing and sales.

    One possible constraint on Supercharger installs is production rate. Given that the current version is Gen III and Tesla has been producing Superchargers for while, it is difficult to believe this is a limitation. The basic modules are the same as the car, whose production is battery limited, not chargers. The rest is a pretty straight forward rack (Cabinet) and pedestals. At 25 Superchargers per month and an average of 3 Cabinets and 6 Pedestals per Supercharger, that is only 75 Cabinets, 900 Chargers, and 150 Pedestals per month.

    What's left to limit rollout? The rest of the design is pretty standard, off-the-shelf stuff. People talk about planning boards, etc being a long lead, but that is just a start up problem. Once enough are in process, the flow should start.

    I'd love to hear other ideas, but the only other limitation that I can imagine is Management and Engineering attention. Tesla is still a startup with many pots in the fire, gigafactory, Model X, cost reductions and support of Model S, and the upcoming Model E. I would hope that the Supercharger design and rollout is pretty mature by now, but we have not seen an average of 17 a month in North America or 25 a month world wide, yet.

    Tesla, surprise us!!!
     
  15. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    10,316
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    @Enadler, you are right, California owners are spoiled in that regard. My point is that in a few years Superchargers will be available in every corner of the US and Europe and beyond. The technology is well understood and the construction and installation is fairly straightforward. Tesla will get better at implementing and managing the buildout of the network. And recent news gives rise to hope that other auto manufacturers will get on board and accelerate the development of the network.
     
  16. PhilBa

    PhilBa Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2013
    Messages:
    1,355
    Location:
    Seattle
    I've said this before but the rate of progress clearly has flattened out. Once the end of year 2013 push was done, they reverted to an average of completing one supercharger every 5.4 days. Extrapolating from today, they will complete 36 SCs by the end of the year. That means 133 in the North America by 12-31. Given a similar end of year push in 2014, they could add another 15-20 so 150 is not an unreasonable expectation. I would welcome increased efforts on Tesla's part but don't expect any significant increase in the near future.

    I agree with you that they need to be more measured in their promises. By over promising, they are giving credence to those who say they are failing (or flailing). However, if you look at what has been accomplished in the last 18 months, a different picture emerges. We now have a viable long distance charging network for a significant part of the country. This network is expanding at a steady pace and will reach the 200 "completion" number before the end of 2015 if the current pace is sustained.

    By the way, I put completion in quotes because I don't believe the network will every really be complete. New SCs will be added and existing ones will be upgraded for a long time to come.
     
  17. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2008
    Messages:
    2,052
    Location:
    Herndon, VA
    I believe that 300 is closer to the "completion" at the end of 2015. 200 is what is on the books (map) for 2014.
     
  18. N4HHE

    N4HHE Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2013
    Messages:
    619
    Location:
    Madison, AL
    Superchargers says 117 online in the USA, 13 under construction, and 12 more have permits. With 2 months to go they won't hit 150 for 2014. And only have one within 150 miles of me.
     
  19. green1

    green1 Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2014
    Messages:
    4,105
    Location:
    Calgary, Alberta, Canada
    Quit bragging! my closest one is still 1000km away (approx 700-800miles)
     
  20. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2014
    Messages:
    778
    Location:
    Austin
    The saddest group has to be Texas.
    We have five here, but they are a little island with no way off and it looks like the west coast or northern "bridges" will not be coming at all in 2014.
     

Share This Page