New Tesla Factory Location(s)

[NicoV]

For the record, this is an article about the visit of Elon Musk to Belgium last year. In the first video clip you can hear Musk say that Belgium is definitely in the top 5 of the candidate locations: Musk: "Vlaanderen mogelijke bestemming voor Europese Tesla-fabriek"
At the end you can see him meeting the mayor of Antwerp, a prime location for a new factory, with a recently abandoned giant Opel (GM) factory.

 

[Mitrovic]

We are speculating, aren't we?

I think the next factory will be in Europe and then in China. But how will Tesla get the funds to build new factories?

Croatian governement has tried to contact Tesla to build a factory in their country - Nikola tesla a Serb was born in Croatia - but I think the political situation is not stable enough.

I guess there will not be too many employees, so the problems about 35 hours weeks are not essential.

So my best guesses are: France - Spain - Germany - Netherlands and Slovakia.

 

[AudubonB]

By the way - and I did not start this thread in order to champion France and the Fessenheim site as the best location for a new Tesla factory - I've no dog in this hunt - I noted some posts using the French labor situation as being a negative when assessing this possibility.

That brought something up from the back of my mind, and I finally took the time to track it down. Here it is:

Back in March of 2014, BBC presented an article showing France's labor pool to be, by certain important measures, equal or superior to its European counterparts. The article is here: Busting the myth of France’s 35-hour workweek ; in it we learn, inter alia, that Germans work 1,406 hours per year; French 1,476.

There are lots of variables - understood. But here is one quote from the article: “It’s really the 35 hours that have created this false idea that the French don’t work a lot,” said Olivier. “The idea sticks in people’s minds. But it’s not a reality.”

More fundamentally, currents in France today are toward the dismantling of even the base 35-hour work week, as this article from five weeks ago presents: Is The French 35-Hour Work Week Under Siege? New Law Under François Hollande Could Dismantle Labor Rule

 

[pr0teu5]

For the record, this is an article about the visit of Elon Musk to Belgium last year. In the first video clip you can hear Musk say that Belgium is definitely in the top 5 of the candidate locations: Musk: "Vlaanderen mogelijke bestemming voor Europese Tesla-fabriek"
At the end you can see him meeting the mayor of Antwerp, a prime location for a new factory, with a recently abandoned giant Opel (GM) factory.

This is good to know. The factory would probably only cost around $40 million or even less, though it is significantly smaller than the current Tesla factory and Nummi. The cool thing though is that this factory also has it's own port. I think that's a big plus.

One big thing that we've not discussed in the future plans for Gigafactories. Tesla said that they would end up needing several. It's hard to new exactly what Tesla future plans are, but I suspect that their major goal is to localize all production for each of the three global regions - NA, Europe, and Asia - in those regions. This probably includes cell production.

When you look at it this way both the Fressenheim Nuclear Facility, and the Antwerp Opel factory make sense. They could use the Antwerp factory to assemble vehicles and build a Gigafactory at the Fressenheim Facility. What's cool is the Fressenheim facility is on the Rhone River which can be used to get to the North Sea where the Antwerp factory is located. So Tesla could use the hypothetical Fressenheim Gigafactory to build packs and ship them by barge up the Rhone where they can assemble the cars and easily ship them out to the rest of Europe right from the factory. Even better the Rhone flows through Germany. So if they can also get a factory in Germany along the Rhone for a good deal, they could use the Fressenheim Gigafactory to ship packs their and supply all of Europe relatively easily.

We are speculating, aren't we?

I think the next factory will be in Europe and then in China. But how will Tesla get the funds to build new factories?

Croatian governement has tried to contact Tesla to build a factory in their country - Nikola tesla a Serb was born in Croatia - but I think the political situation is not stable enough.

I guess there will not be too many employees, so the problems about 35 hours weeks are not essential.

So my best guesses are: France - Spain - Germany - Netherlands and Slovakia.

I agree with the China part. Just as with Europe I think they will need localized self-contained production in Asia. So a vehicle factory in China, along with a Gigafactory in either China or Japan to supply all of Asia makes sense.

 

[NicoV]

This is good to know. The factory would probably only cost around $40 million or even less, though it is significantly smaller than the current Tesla factory and Nummi. The cool thing though is that this factory also has it's own port. I think that's a big plus. .

I forgot to mention (actually I did mention it a couple of days ago in the short term thread) that we also have a Ford facility in Limburg that closed last year. According to wikipedia it built half a million cars at its peak, see Ford Genk - Wikipedia
The Opel factory in Antwerp only built a quarter million cars at its peak, see Opel Antwerpen - Wikipedia

Both facilities are excellently connected with road, railway and waterways.

 

[pr0teu5]

I forgot to mention (actually I did mention it a couple of days ago in the short term thread) that we also have a Ford facility in Limburg that closed last year. According to wikipedia it built half a million cars at its peak, see Ford Genk - Wikipedia
The Opel factory in Antwerp only built a quarter million cars at its peak, see Opel Antwerpen - Wikipedia

Both facilities are excellently connected with road, railway and waterways.

I'm sure they are, but I can help but look gluttonously at the Opel Headquarters factory in Russelheim. If/when Tesla is pushing out ~10 million units per year worldwide and they need 1-1.5 million units to satisfy demand in Europe such a plant would be absolutely perfect. They're not likely to get it unless Opel and/or GM goes bankrupt though.

 

[Johan]

So, Germany then most likely?

Tesla plans to choose location for ‘Gigafactory 2’ in Europe next year, will produce both batteries and cars

 

[ggr]

I guess it will depend on which car companies start to shutter factories first. There are a lot of car factories in cheaper places than Germany, such as Slovakia and Spain. But then Elon has never worried too much about the cost of labor (I mean, really, Bay Area?).

 

[AudubonB]

It's not as though I've any dog in this hunt (look it up, non-native speakers...), but I keep hearkening back to the Fessenden location in French Alsace. Great location....lousy workforce reputation.


on pre-edit: Wait. I see I used just these words a few posts up...but that was many months ago. And "Fessenden" is a bit of a Freudian slip*. It's FESSENHEIM.

BUT....if with TM's increasing comfort level with its Kuka and Fanuc robots, and now with today's Grohmann acquisition...I'm mischievously wondering just how few workers TM could use in a full-fledged (500K-1mm/yr) auto+TE plant? Could TM possibly get away with telling the French labor unions to go take a swim in the Rhine?

*Fessenden is a family name.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

So, Germany then most likely?

Tesla plans to choose location for ‘Gigafactory 2’ in Europe next year, will produce both batteries and cars

It might make sense, given the highly skilled German workforce and Tesla's recently announced acquisition of a German robotics firm:

Formation of Tesla Advanced Automation Germany

I'm excited for Gigafactory 2, because it will likely be the first completely integrated "Alien Dreadnought"/"Machine that makes the Machine" facility. Replicated factories in Asia and Eastern U.S. would surely follow. I haven't been this excited about manufacturing since Intel began rapidly replicating fabs all around the world, allowing massive manufacturing volumes of processors for PCs.